I honestly don't know what's going on. Wagner seems full of extremely competent, ex-special forces people. You had problems with them and the MoD being as theater before, but I'm not sure. This could be Putin's way of obliterating seditious elements in the MoD (have Wagner become the MoD) or its an actual coup to depose Putin.
Part of Wagner is, maybe 10k total. The rest is money hungry thugs and convicts looking for a ticket out of prison.
So there's a couple of things in my opinion.
1. Putin is done with his MoD and has employed Wagner to literally clean house
2. This is a 6D Chess move to cloak Wagner's movements in a supposed 'coup' when it is trying to reposition them without alerting NATO or the West to where they're actually going
3. This is a real coup by elements of the military and Wagner
4. This is to sow confusion to prevent a false flag on the power plant
5. Zelensky paid Wagner a couple of billion to march on Moscow
This is really fucking crazy
It would be fucking hilarious if Zelinksy just called up Wagner and said "hey, who wants to make $10 billion cash, tax free"
I think Wagner has gotten an overinflated sense of importance after being fellated by elements of the Russian government for years. They're useful but now the Russian MoD has begun using convict troops and it's operations overseas are easily replicable with another PMC, a more loyal PMC.
Out of your four options, I'm thinking this is the most likely one unless Prigozhin has really lost his mind. There was an attempt at a false flag with the blown up pipeline that failed. However, after reading history concerning the military industrial complex in the US, there will 100% be a false flag if Uncle Sam is going to get directly involved in a shooting war with Russia (USS Maine, Lusitania, Gulf of Tonkin, WMDs to name a few prominent examples).
The counteroffensive failed spectacularly, so doing a false flag attack on a nuclear reactor and blaming it on Russia may be the last card in their back pocket. I mean just recently, uniparty rats in DC introduced a Senate resolution to invoke Article V if a nuclear reactor is attacked by the Russians.
Uss Maine was an internal magazine explosion, Lusitania was torpedoed by a German sub, and the first Gulf of Tonkin was a real attack by NVA torpedoe boats, and the SECOND reported attack was radar echoes of whitecaps. WMDs were mostly bullshit as the Iraqi nuclear program was killed in the early 1980s although the chemical and biological programs weren't terminated until 2003 and were small scale after 1991. However, all four were used as casus belli (to be honest the US was going to war with Spain no matter what and the US was eventually going to enter WW1)
Actual fasle flags include the German invasion of Poland in WW2 with the
Gleiwitz incident
And the Mukden Incident in Manchuria in 1931 to justify the Japanese Army's invasion of north China.
Others include the diplomatic cable between France and Prussia in 1870 where Otto von Bismarck made up insults to Napoleon the 3rd to get him to declare war and the Soviet shelling of Mainila (a Soviet town) in 1939 to kick off the Winter war with Finland.
These days false flags are pretty hard to fake with everyone having access to an Internet capable video camera on their person.
A real false flag would be a bunch of American SF dressing up as NVA troops then say.... Attacking the American embassy in Saigon and killing everyone inside or USAF jets with Iraqi colors attacking US bases in Kuwait. Of course Iraq flying F-16/18/15s would be quite the surprise. Oh also people talk and are seemingly incapable keeping secrets anymore, especially with social media. See Jack Texteria and the hilarious discord leaks.