Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Secret Asshole]

Prigozhin smells blood in the river; Shoigu is the weak link in the Russian elite. If Prigozhin can successfully use his army to counteract Shoigu, he might remove the Shoigist faction of Putin’s regime.

I mean, nows the best time for it. Russia literally cannot afford this right now and needs it to be resolved as quick as possible. Its the best time for Prigozhin to remove his enemies in the MOD.

 

[AgendaPoster]

Gonna have to leave work and then go to sleep; I hope to see a proper happening developing when I wake up and the Battle for the Gates of Moscow in full development. The people of Moscow have long been oppressed by Putin and his government; it is time that a courageous liberating army took it upon themselves to protect the citizens of Russia from their leaders.
Sure this might lead to some razed cities and villages and a few thousands dead, but imagine the poor people of Moscow and Rostov and how they suffer. Something had to be done, Putin and his acolytes brought this upon themselves.

 

[Null]

this reminded me of a very old song I am fond of

 

[King George III]

Would it be stupid to presume that the oligarchs are fucking pissed at Putin and made Prigozhin an offer he can't refuse? Surely they can't be happy with all their shit getting seized and not bringing in money like they were pre-war.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

*scratches head* What did I wake up to

 

[Lieutenant Rasczak]

Honestly, we need to wait for the situation to play out further. This whole situation is a complete shit fest and fog of war is indeed a bitch. However, don't be surprised if either this leads to either negotiations or a total breakdown of the Russian State apparatus and anything inbetween. Stranger things have happened before.

 

[the fall of man]

Why should we assume Putin is safe from Prigozhin? Prigozhin said that Putin's primary reason for invading Ukraine was a lie. We now have a Ukraine that is

• Not denazified
• Not demilitarized
• Basically NATO

And the "buffer" around Moscow grows thinner and thinner. If Putin's head doesn't roll, the elimination of Shoigu and any of Prigozhin's other enemies would end with Putin as Prigozhin's puppet

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Would it be stupid to presume that the oligarchs are fucking pissed at Putin and made Prigozhin an offer he can't refuse? Surely they can't be happy with all their shit getting seized and not bringing in money like they were pre-war.

That is one of the distinct and more plausible possibilities; that this is being backed by certain oligarch factions fed up with the war.

However, don't be surprised if either this leads to either negotiations or a total breakdown of the Russian State apparatus and anything inbetween. Stranger things have happened before.

People forget, when the Soviet Union collapsed, NOBODY, and I mean NOBODY saw it coming, including the Soviets themselves. It literally happened over night and caught everyone off guard. Indeed, stranger things have happened.

 

[Scout Trooper]

Its highly unlikely Wagner would betray Russian interests. Wagner is basically a PMC-in-name-Only, its basically an extension of the Russian government where the Russian government cannot officially be involved. The entirety of the PMC are Russian ex-special forces as well as Russian Ex-MoD officials. It still has a lot of enemies in the Russian MoD as per Russian politics. No one wants to make them look more successful and its entirely possible the MOD has tried to kill Wagner's success and Progohzin finally got fed up with it and went for their throat.

It would be a dangerous gamble for Putin but it's not without precedent.

We sort of saw a more peaceful version of this in the George W. Bush administration's replacement of Donald Rumsfeld with Robert Gates. Rumsfeld's DoD was tarnished by the manipulation of the intelligence situation around Iraq's WMD program while CIA and the State Department had objected to DoD's (probably intentionally) sloppy analysis.

Although Gates wasn't at CIA at the time of the dispute, CIA was seen as more trustworthy in its handling of intelligence sources and cautious analysis (rightfully so).

I don't know if Putin sees Prigozhin as a potential replacement or if he's just the executioner to free Putin up to select a more competent replacement.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I'm trying to quot @Secret Asshole and TOR won't let me. Consider this @ my quote text of his previous post.



You've been in the Russiaboo thread too long bro. Wagner was never "loyal to Russian Interests". Wagner was always loyal to Prighozins interests. Which for a long time now aligned with Putins interests. Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has been a Mafia state run by very powerful competing Oligarchs.

Prighozin being one of them. We jokingly call him "chef" because he had the contract for feeding the Russian Army for awhile, along with catering formal Kremlin Events. But that is HUGE. He provided the Army with FOOD, along with Kremlin Dignitaries for their parties. That was millions of dollars. Before that he ran black market casinos and criminal gangs. The man is a ruthless survivor, and no doubt his past made other fsctions within the Kremlin look down on him.

Which is precisely why Putin made him his "heavy". Prighozin was a nobody, and everyone knew it. So even if he had his own private Army he could not do shit with it. Perfect for Putin to create a new Boyar to balance out the other Boyars he had to keep in line.

The Ukraine War has changed the calculation. Its taken to long, the Boyars are losing money hand over fist, the army bogged down and Prighozin is now a war hero. His enemies in Kremlin probably moved against him and now its war.

Because Prighozing at his core has always been a gangster and a survivor. He's not loyal to Russia. He's loyal to staying alive.

 

[Illuminati Order Official]

Its highly unlikely Wagner would betray Russian interests. Wagner is basically a PMC-in-name-Only, its basically an extension of the Russian government where the Russian government cannot officially be involved. The entirety of the PMC are Russian ex-special forces as well as Russian Ex-MoD officials

That's why I said "someone from the inside" - he may genuinely believe that changing leadership would be beneficial to Russia or doesn't believe it will change much but was offered something he wants in return.

 

[World in Scarlet]

The reaction of the people of Rostov is so funny. They treat it like a show for entertainment. Maybe they are right.

 

[Climaxing Sunset]

Prigozhin, and the Jewish/Russian/Uzbek oligarchs of Russia are probably fed up with the war, it’s failures, it’s shortsighted objectives and the miscalculation and sheer corruption of Russia’s military.

What Ukraine war exposed was Russia’s military corruption. What good is it to have fancy toys if you can’t manage the army well, train them well, or have a lack of objective? I still remembered when Putin announced his denazifying program for Ukraine and guess what? That crossdressing Jewish Nazi commander Zelenskyy still reigns, and Ukraine’s armed to the teeth. Russia’s suffering crippling sanctions, and corruption on a scale that hinders any economic development.

The end of the Soviet Union was a surprise but not as surprising as the events of todsy. The USSR’s economy was rooted in failure in the end. Modern Russia’s failure is a war with zero objectives or focus.

 

[Corette]

*scratches head* What did I wake up to

Current day Russia.

 

[mindlessobserver]

*scratches head* What did I wake up to

The future

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Current day Russia.

This sure is some exciting events. After reading a bit, I'm almost certain Prigozhin was tipped off by someone regarding his planned removal or something like that. I could see that happening.
It would make sense to remove him and for MoD to absorb his assets. Except I'm pretty sure they're loyal to Prigozhin, so I don't see that working out.

Either way, this is certainly crippling Russian unjust war on Ukraine, so it's good news.

My opinion: Putin is not as powerful as you think. There are several Kremlin experts that said, Putin was the face and referee for the Kremlin while his oligarchs shared the power between each other. Some theories on the start of the war include Putin hoping to gain more power again.

During the war, the other oligarchs and Putin loved keeping Prigozhin and the MoD separate so that no single person could round them all up. That's one reason why Putin never put Prigozhin into his place after his rants. And in the past few days and weeks Prigozhin was doing these frontline videos. This was something essential for the Putin regime, Zelensky gained massive support for his videos during the height of the attack on Kyiv or his visit to Bakhmut. But Putin just can't do the same, he is either too sick or too afraid. So Prigozhin did the PR work, but he also set himself up to be a potential new leader for Russia.


So I wouldn't be surprised if Shoigu and Gerasimov did this nonsense trying to take out Prigozhin and this is him acting quickly.

Except all oligarchs got from this war is losses. I'm of the opinion that he had them by the balls after making example out of Khodorkovsky, Putin's will trumps all. Everyone defying it falls out the windows.
IMO Russian oligarchs would've preferred the same thing as NATO nations regarding this war - so it didn't happen, and they could just go about their business as usual instead of having all this bullshit to deal with.

 

[the fall of man]

Prigozhin, and the Jewish/Russian/Uzbek oligarchs of Russia are probably fed up with the war, it’s failures, it’s shortsighted objectives and the miscalculation and sheer corruption of Russia’s military.

What Ukraine war exposed was Russia’s military corruption. What good is it to have fancy toys if you can’t manage the army well, train them well, or have a lack of objective? I still remembered when Putin announced his denazifying program for Ukraine and guess what? That crossdressing Jewish Nazi commander Zelenskyy still reigns, and Ukraine’s armed to the teeth. Russia’s suffering crippling sanctions, and corruption on a scale that hinders any economic development.

The end of the Soviet Union was a surprise but not as surprising as the events of todsy. The USSR’s economy was rooted in failure in the end. Modern Russia’s failure is a war with zero objectives or focus.

Also the USSR was the revolutionary descendant of Tsarist Russia, and the Russian Federation is basically USSR's withered dying corpse on the merest of life support.
Putin took a gamble, which was that America had too open of a society and the West was too degenerate to prevent the Russian Federation from reclaiming the USSR's former glory.
It did not work. It will not work. For all the weakness America projects, it seems like we can still weaponize small states into horrifying versions of themselves; and for those who think that we literally cannot produce anything and we just buy everything from China, why would China allow us to create entitles which can and will fuck them in the end. There's an obvious answer that makes sense, which is that America was never weak, despite having the same social problems as always; and there's insane answers made of copium and a tremendous misunderstanding of how economics and geopolitics works. But believe what you want; it's your right to be wrong

 

[World in Scarlet]

*scratches head* What did I wake up to

️ Wagner PMC takes control of Rostov-on-Don.

The mercenaries surrounded the headquarters of the Southern Military District, the buildings of the Interior Ministry, the Federal Security Service Administration, the Rostov city administration and one of the police departments in Rostov. There is no resistance to them.

Summer has arrived and the Wagners have arrived.

source

 

[SBG]

Would it be stupid to presume that the oligarchs are fucking pissed at Putin and made Prigozhin an offer he can't refuse? Surely they can't be happy with all their shit getting seized and not bringing in money like they were pre-war.

I doubt his hand was forced. He's been putting out propaganda for a while helping pretend Wagner and Russia weren't comfortable sending soldiers into a meat grinder for no real benefit. He's now gotten a reputation as the "real" general type that is interested in making sure soldiers are well armed and achieving objectives (no matter if reality suggests otherwise).

Since he's likely surrounded himself with a bunch of yes men comfortable with killing their own soldiers if they don't fear and follow him, he probably has a big enough ego to figure he could pull off taking over the Russian government if he felt like it. It's not like Putin has a ton he can do. He's sort of in the same predicament Americans have fantasized about putting the US government in, where you can't really nuke or bomb your own cities to deal with some uprising of armed populace.

Russians also seem comfortable letting themselves get cucked by their leadership, so they probably wouldn't even give a shit if Putin or whoever was replaced. It'd largely be business as usual.

So it's just a fight between Prig and whoever in Russia's armed forces or police that feels Putin would give them a better deal, which I'm skeptical he could do given how many felt they needed to steal from work (and Putin's army) to maintain their lifestyles.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Let's assume Russia has lost Rostov on Don to the partisan menace for a moment. This is a catastrophe for the Russian Southern Front. with the Crimean route being severed by ATACMS and Storm Shadow, the Rostov Route is the only major supply corridor that supports Mariople and Melitipol. All other Rail and Highway Lines cut southwest from the Belgorod area through the Donbass and in range of Ukrainian Artillery.

If Prighozin is actually serious about what he is doing seizing Rostov is a fucking catastrophe for the Russian Army in Zaporizhia and Kherson. Their supply lines are cut.