Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Hall of Cost Payer said:
I think Chef winning this is bad for Ukraine. He was able to actually build a competent army and most Ukrainians fighting fear Wagner more than regular troops.
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Chef has even less of a grip on any kind of power than Putin does, and by a massive margin. Him winning by either becoming the El Presidente, or basically turning Putin into his puppet will both lead into a massive power vacuum, where the entire Russian political structure will raise their paranoia levels to overdrive.
Anyone left with any kind of influence over anything will be too preoccupied with questions like "Should i make my own power moves now? Who will purge who? Will i be purged? Should i take my money and flee to Cyprus with my family? Who the fuck has the nukes now? What was that CIA asset's phone number again?"
Russia's entire state apparatus will be completely paralyzed where any bullshit happening in Ukraine will be so far removed from anything anyone on the top cares about right now.

Then this chaos will trickle down to the troops on the front. Russia's special military operation hasn't gone smoothly as is, and now they have to continue to resist Ukraine's offensive with the entire leadership literally killing each other?

It's starting to look very much like Ukraine war won't go into the 2024. Perhaps won't even last this summer. When Putin started actually firing at Wagner troops advancing towards Moscow and vice-versa it was the moment when war in Ukraine became absolutely secondary to anyone's interests on the top. It's a matter of time before the troops realize that too and start to act based on their own self interest as well.
There's just no way you go from this back to having any kind of cohesive military structure suited for war of such scale as that in Ukraine any time soon, no matter who wins in Moscow.

Putin's best and only chance was to end this quickly last night without anyone realizing beyond that Wagner was doing something weird for an hour or two and then the Chef flew out of a window. Now that we have a coup/civil war in progress and everyone is being pressured to choose a side, it's not in Putin's control anymore.
Seeing how Wagner has had its epic summer road trip with absolutely no resistance, it seems that big chunk of the Russian armed forces are either in on it, or have their asses well glued onto the fence. Neither of which is a good sign for Putin.
 
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> Wagner's Commander's name is Prigozhin.
> Prigozhin has shared roots with Polish
> Wagner is a PMC, aka mercenaries.
> TFW the vatnik cope about Polish mercenaries be sent to take over Russia was real

The polish thing is bullshit as far as I know, I just wanted to shitpost about the irony


Not At All A Lizard said:
On the topic of 'What if Prigozhin becomes Tsar', apart from how unlikely that is to happen, the idea that all of the Russian army would gain +2 to combat and suddenly become stronger is a little silly. The amount of confusion and changing of staff alone will be a detriment long before it's an advantage. Not to mention that a lot of the success of Wagner has been the willingness to throw cannon fodder at the enemy old-school, not so much strategic genius. I personally doubt that Prigozhin would be able to mobilize another 500k Russians to be cannon fodder to begin with (as Putin might be able to).
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Now I am not saying that Chef is a Napoleon, but Napoleon did precisely what you are suggesting, and he was able to pull it off because the French army was large and well-supplied and drilled but hopeless mismanaged. When that mismanagement stopped, he was able to roll nearly the entirety of continental Europe in about 10 years.
It is not IMPOSSIBLE that someone who knows what the fuck their on about clears out parasites from Russia's military and stops doing things like sending several mechanized & armored brigades across a minefield platoon by platoon.

The main thing that makes this somewhat unlikely is that while Chef has himself a bunch of very smart officers and a dedicated corps of ex-SF operators, this makes an effective unit but not an effective army. His trainers will not be able to turn Mobliks into Wagner 2nd stringers in any reasonable time frame.

teriyakiburns said:
Stuff like this makes me think he's unlikely to turn around and go back to prosecuting the war in ukraine, if he wins. The claims he's making - that essentially, the war was promoted by the corrupt for their personal enrichment - are devastating to the case for war. Even if Putin decisively ends this rebellion, enough dissent has been created to severely damage his prior image as the unchallenged strong man in the eyes of the people, as well as destroying his claims about the reasons for the war.
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I have no clue what the dude is thinking but he will need to spin the story that he's going to turn around go right back to Ukraine until this is resolved. I am pretty sure he's going to get Copacabana'd but if he doesn't, if there is a goddamn Fourth of July miracle and Chef trades his cook's hat for the crown, I give it even odds he decides that Ukraine was a misdirected wasteful adventure advanced by the previous corrupt administration and the best thing for Russia is a healing peace (or he decides to get right back to the business at hand.)
 
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Prigozhin had allegedly been preparing for this:

"Russian project Gulagu.net (a Russian human rights organization and site fighting torture - ed.) reports that the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, had been stockpiling ammunition for two months and lied about the alleged "ammunition famine".

"Throughout April and May, Prigozhin lied about an alleged 'shell famine,' 1st and 7th assault groups have a huge stock of MANPADS and trophy Javelins."

A source from Prigozhin's SB said that preparations for this scenario lasted more than 2 months."

 
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Astro Galactic Megalul said:
I still can't understand his real motivation and objectives
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My guess based on absolutely nothing is that either he truly is just a mad dog living entirely in the present only reacting to shit that happens to him/around him, and doesn't actually plan anything, and now his feral instinct felt an immediate mortal threat to him, so he went full "pitbull sees a toddler do something unexpected"-mode.

Or he doesn't care if Russia loses in Ukraine and becomes an irrelevant North Korea XL completely dependent on China's gibs and respected by absolutely no one, as long as he gets to have some power over it.

I really can't see any way for this to work in Russia's favor as a state.
 
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Astro Galactic Megalul said:
Imagine if everything Prigozhin did so far was to prepare for this moment, sheesh
Talk about 4D chess

I still can't understand his real motivation and objectives
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Seems like Wagner does have some real grievances with MoD and they're fed up with their incompetence. Goes back at least as far as the Battle of Khasham.

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"March of Justice of PMC "Wagner" is a karmic punishment of Gerasimov and Shoygu. If you have been ruining the army for years, trying for years to destroy the most combat-ready unit (“ih-tam-net” during Khasham, shell shortage during the Bakhmut meat grinder and today’s strike on the rear camps), if you rewarded muradovs [Vuhledar catastrophe] and expelled really honest generals, if you threw ordinary soldiers into stupid meat assaults, then one must be prepared for the fact that justice can prevail. Are Shoygu and Gerasimov ready?"
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Something Awful said:
Prigozhin had allegedly been preparing for this:

"Russian project Gulagu.net (a Russian human rights organization and site fighting torture - ed.) reports that the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, had been stockpiling ammunition for two months and lied about the alleged "ammunition famine".

"Throughout April and May, Prigozhin lied about an alleged 'shell famine,' 1st and 7th assault groups have a huge stock of MANPADS and trophy Javelins."

A source from Prigozhin's SB said that preparations for this scenario lasted more than 2 months."

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Literal Pravda link, lul
 
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Ghostse said:
Once the 1500 T-14s that Russia manufactured just this year (The MOD releases tell us that) are finally allowed to go to the front, it'll be all over for NATO.
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You forgot Ruskie air superiority, superior infantry and hypersonics that can't be shot down with Patriot systems (That one time was a fluke) it'll be all over for Ukraine and NATO.

Trust MOD
Pocket Dragoon said:
Tor won't let me load the 10min video & archiving isn't working, but Prigozhin is definitely pushing his luck, while straight up accusing Shoigu & his frens of some pretty heavy shit. While definitely nothing unusual about any of that in Russia, it's something people don't talk about unless they've got a death wish, ideological motivations, a private army, and/or help from the West.

Although at this point it wouldn't surprise me if Prigozhin turned into a CIA (et al.) asset, or has been one all along. He strikes me as the kind of true & honest criminal who'd flip instantly if it meant his neck.
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Prigozhin is a mercenary first and foremost, just, he won't play with the losing side, since that would cut into his profits.

He'd dress up in a pink tutu for the glowniggers if a pardon was on the table, Russians are notorious for backstabbing eachother, often literally to cover their asses.
 
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-After a year of Russia losing non stop on Kiev, kherson and other places they finally get their first victory, more or less defeating the long awaited ukranian counter attack, perhaps this is the turning point? surely spirits of the RUAF must be relatively high now, at least higher than before...
-nevermind literally days later the country falls into civil war

beyond parody lmao
 
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If you would have told me 20+ years ago that I would be sitting watching a coup/civil war in Russia on my home computer or a smartphone I would have thought you were crazy for both of them. Holy shit. This is history. No matter what happens we are watching major history happen. This is 100X better than the shit they have in movies or TV shows now. You can't top this shit. This is real crazy stuff.

I have been watching this live stream from Ukraine Matters on YouTube.


I watched the Suchomimus video as well.
Hall of Cost Payer said:
I think Chef winning this is bad for Ukraine. He was able to actually build a competent army and most Ukrainians fighting fear Wagner more than regular troops.

I think Prigozhin taking power would be more interesting or more funny, though.

But for Ukraine the best case would be for the MoD and Wagner to both take heavy losses from this.
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I don't think so. I don't think he will continue the war at all. If Prigozhin is successful the war is over. If he gets killed and the Russians put down the coup attempt which doesn't look likely from what I have heard all you will have is an even weaker Russia fighting the war. But weaker in many more ways than before.
teriyakiburns said:
Stuff like this makes me think he's unlikely to turn around and go back to prosecuting the war in ukraine, if he wins. The claims he's making - that essentially, the war was promoted by the corrupt for their personal enrichment - are devastating to the case for war. Even if Putin decisively ends this rebellion, enough dissent has been created to severely damage his prior image as the unchallenged strong man in the eyes of the people, as well as destroying his claims about the reasons for the war.
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Yeah, I don't think he will. The mad Chef winning means war is done. I have heard him talking about atrocities or war crimes. With everything else he has said I seriously doubt he will continue the war. He seems disgusted by it.
Coffee Mugshot said:
Video of, apparently, a Wagner merc saying that they have shot down 3 helicopters, 1 transport plane, and they are now in Voronezh and heading to Moscow. He is also wearing cat ears.


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You know wearing cat ears and a stuff animal on your helmet says serious business. Oh well, at least he has a sense of humor or whatever. They are just people after all.
Fools Idol said:
I am in awe at just how retarded this shit show got in 24hrs.
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This isn't retarded this is great.
Astro Galactic Megalul said:
Imagine if everything Prigozhin did so far was to prepare for this moment, sheesh
Talk about 4D chess

I still can't understand his real motivation and objectives
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I have seen videos him and he is pissed. Even if he isn't successful he has the look of someone that's prepared to kill a lot of people.
 
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