Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Ghostse]

Now I could be dead wrong, and either Ukraine didn't have the assault forces other sources were claiming they had, or Zaluzny & Co. know something I don't and so are holding said forces back from fighting when the inevitable Spetsnaz counter-strike with 15000 T-14 Armata tanks supported by Su-57 fighters happens.
Until then, I'm going to assume that the Ukrainian armed forces haven't committed their assault reserves because they are not ready to yet.

And while this might turn out to be but mere cope, its well-reasoned cope:
I know everyone's attention spans have been eroded due to the Eternal Jew trying to keep the goys dumb and docile, but remember how the war was progressing this time last year. You saw roughly what we're seeing now (or well, had seen been seeing until the Moscow Feint) - stagnant lines, diffuse Ukrainian counter action (though Russia had a bit of the momentum advantage and was pressuring Kharkiv city as I recall). And then in early september, after cockteasing a southern assault for months, out of no where they are pushing from Kharkiv and force the Russians back to their fall back lines. Then not content with that, they push them back again a week later.

Now, past results do not indicate future performance, and the defensive situation after a year is different with Russia having time to build hardened defenses, but there's precedent that Ukraine command is willing to let things bubble before turning up the heat.

 

[WhiteNight]

And I don't think it was Putin because Putin was too slow to respond to the Wagner mobilization; if you take a shot a guy, you don't go to bed right after pulling the trigger.

I think Anders said Wagner did it and lied about the Russians doing it. It's a really weird false flag. I think it was real. Someone back in Moscow got sick of Prigozhin running his mouth and tried to kill him.

I would say >90% chance the supposed shelling of the Wagner camp was a false flag. Prigozhin claims Shoigu personally oversaw it, but the only proof it even happened was a video of apparently destroyed positions (with no bodies) and some fires. The purpose was to justify Prigozhin's coup attempt as being a defensive action forced on him by the MoD attacks.

The rebellion would have been planned well in advance. Chef didn't simply spontaneously organize a massive convoy with supplies and anti-air assets and so on. But he wanted a pretext to kick it off.

The rebellion was in a sense defensive. The MoD was trying to control Wagner, but through the more legalistic means of forcing them to sign MoD contracts, undermining Prigozhin. But "they're making us sign papers" lacks the same narrative punch as "they shelled us". Shoigu and Gerasimov's hostility to Prigozhin is well-known, so the attack was somewhat plausible.

Commander Pierogi

Top kek.

 

[Uranus Pink]

@Harbinger of Kali Yuga Q

Even if that was true, so? Most governments now have smaller armies because they pay the USA for protection;

Unfortunately not fucking true at all as nobody pays for
United States protection. As it is the exact opposite of the United States paying the protectees and especially the Euro states to protect them. Hence the Eurofags dumping almost all of their "military budgets" into their social welfare programs. Originally for the natives and later only for the immigrants shitting up their countries.

 

[Ghostse]

I think Anders said Wagner did it and lied about the Russians doing it. It's a really weird false flag.

I hadn't thought of that angle, but I guess I can't rule out the possibility.
If so, Chef's stock goes up a little in my mind - its the perfect crime. Russia's military is such a cluster fuck you'd never be able to disprove it wasn't a missle from their launchers. And you couldn't trust the operators since they'd say they didn't do it whether or not its the truth.

Only X-factor would be the rocket attack from the gunship. Flights would be tracked, flight data logged.

I'm pretty sure its real too. The weak attack was meant just as a shot across the bow - they didn't expect total Slavic Escalation.

 

[teriyakiburns]

The investigation into him is still open, according to latest reports.

 

[WhiteNight]

The investigation into him is still open, according to latest reports.

Reuters:

Russia's mutiny case against Prigozhin remains open - Russian media​

MOSCOW, June 26 (Reuters) - A Russian criminal case against mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin for mutiny remains open and is still being investigated, the Kommersant newspaper and Russia's three main news agencies reported on Monday, citing unidentified sources.

President Vladimir Putin on Saturday vowed to crush what he called a treasonous mutiny after Prigozhin said his Wagner Group fighters had taken control of the southern city of Rostov and were heading to Moscow on what he said was a "march for justice" intended to remove corrupt and incompetent Russian commanders.

Under a deal mediated by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko that defused the crisis late on Saturday, the Kremlin said a criminal case against Prigozhin would be dropped and he would move to Belarus.

His fighters would return to base and would also face no legal action, the Kremlin said.

However, Russia's Kommersant newspaper reported on Monday that the criminal case remained open and that the Federal Security Service (FSB) was continuing its investigation as part of the case. It cited an unidentified source as saying there had not been enough time to close the case.

Russia's three main news agencies - TASS, RIA and Interfax - also reported that the criminal case against Prigozhin remained open and that the investigation was continuing.

"The criminal case against Prigozhin has not stopped," TASS cited a source close to the prosecutor's office as saying. "The investigation is ongoing."

The prison term under Russian law for such a crime is 12-20 years.

Prigozhin, who has not been seen in public since leaving Rostov late on Saturday and has not commented on the deal, denied leading a mutiny.

Prigozhin, once a close Putin ally whose Wagner Group has spearheaded much of the fighting in Ukraine, launched his rebellion on Friday after alleging that the Russian military had killed some of his men in an air strike.

The Defence Ministry denied his claim.

 

[NSJAP]

 

[Ghostse]

View attachment 5179769

Chef: You know what else will really sell it? If I blow up 6 military helicopters.
Putin: You goddamn fucking genius, you took the words right out of my mouth. But I want to really make sure those NATO fucktards buy it. Better shoot down a military transport as well.

 

[Uranus Pink]

Well the pundits and commenters at Gatewaypundit, ZeroHedge at least brought into it. And/or think the CIA is involved either as the mastermind or the dupe covering the costs of it.

 

[Ghostse]

Well the pundits and commenters at Gatewaypundit, ZeroHedge at least brought into it. And/or think the CIA is involved either as the mastermind or the dupe covering the costs of it.

The best art of the accounting fuckup is how many retards who don't know anything its revealed.

The missing Aid isn't a pallet of cash. That is the government valuation of the aid, usually listed as discounts but in the case is the write down on shit like Bradley, MRAPS, and Hummers that were just slowly rusting in the desert awaiting a replacement to be scrapped or transferred.
Some spread sheet warrior made a whoopsie when plugging the unit cost of MREs into excel. its not MREs, I have not dug into exactly what they fucked up the valuation on


This why the US gives 500 million dollars in aid to Pakistan a country we're intermittently at odds with. Pakistan buys US military equipment, they're just given 500 million dollars in coupons to use at General Dynamics to take off MSRP and it includes things like the government list cost for having Pakistani officers over for training.
Its like the stupid food delivery apps that offer "$5 off $20"; they are giving you $5 but you had to spend $20 to get it.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

@Fanatical Pragmatist I watched Perun's video on the offensive earlier today and it gives a pretty realistic take on what's likely going on, I won't be able to say anything better

*idiocy*

This is one of the most retarded takes I've seen regarding this war to date, Jesus.
... What exactly stopped Wagner from deploying in Belarus before? What's the supposed point of this 69D chess move? I'm going to die of brain hemorrhage at this point if these window lickers keep making me cringe like this.

 

[AgendaPoster]

For all we know at this moment, Prigozhin's exile is his, and maybe some of his trusted higher ups, but most of the troops are not going to Belarus, they will enroll in the regular army or just vanish back in the population.
Or get arrested. Who knows.
So an attack on Kiev would require Prigozhin to use Russian and/or Belarus regular troops, not his mercenaries. Hinkle and the other MAGA communism/"muh anti-system" idiots surprise me with how stupid they can be, while maintaining an audience.

 

[NSJAP]

 

[Something Awful]

Someone here posted a link to the YouTube channel Combat Veteran Reacts when he was doing a livestream during Prigozhin's march on Moscow, and I checked it out. It's a pretty popular channel with 300k subscribers.

In his latest video, the guy theorizes that Prigozhin stopped because he basically "won" and was promised he would get to be president after Putin dies. And Wagner loyalists would be installed in the government over the coming weeks in order to ensure this promise is kept.

Insane theory, but apparently the guy’s audience thinks it’s brilliant. He also talks about how Prigozhin became a millionaire in the 90s with a chain of hot dog stands, but how does that make sense when hot dogs aren't that profitable? Well, what if I told you the hot dog stands also sold... drugs! It's a cash-only business on every street corner, kind of brilliant huh?

 

[mindlessobserver]

Shits apparently going down in Oleshky on the left bank of the Dneiper facing Kherson. Russia is apparently shelling the town per war map, and there is only one reason why they would do that.

 

[Uranus Pink]

What's been forgotten is Ukraine both military and civilian sides, have been keeping a very tight lid on OPSEC and INFOSEC. Hence the lack of news from the front on their end.

Secondly the Kharkiv breakthrough had been a target of opportunity. When the Ukrainians were probing for weak points and took advantage of as soon as they found it.

 

[World in Scarlet]

if it was a "false flag" it originated from inside Russia.

The main theory is that it was a Wagner false flag due to how absolutely nothing was hit aside from a couple trees and one body on the ground, but then again it's not like the Russians are in the habit of hitting what they're shooting at, so who knows.

I have not dug into exactly what they fucked up the valuation on

The way I understand it is that they valued mothballed vehicles they pulled out of the desert, missiles decades past their expiry date and artillery shells with a year or two of shelf life left with "replacement cost", ie factory new stuff. The correction is using the actual value of the things they sent instead.

Well the pundits and commenters at Gatewaypundit, ZeroHedge at least brought into it. And/or think the CIA is involved either as the mastermind or the dupe covering the costs of it.

Those are shills that grift schizo right retards by telling them what they want to hear. Tucker Carlson is the same type.

 

[Abowaffen]

The reservoir is almost completely dry. Pic related was from a week ago. Expect interesting things to happen here soon.

 

[World in Scarlet]

source
audio
You think he's gonna beat the charge of organizing an armed insurgency with this?

On June 25, some media and Telegram channels reported that the General Prosecutor's Office, which had earlier ruled that the decision of the Federal Security Service investigator to initiate an insurgency case was legal and justified, had cancelled that decision, and therefore the criminal prosecution of Mr. Prigozhin was also terminated. However, a Kommersant source in the supervisory authority said that the resolution to open a criminal case has not yet been reversed, and the investigation into the mutiny is continuing. According to Kommersant's source, too little time has passed for a different decision to be made.

source
Maybe they just didn't work on the weekend and it will be cleared this week.


Then again:

During his work in the special military operation zone, Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Army General Sergey Shoigu, checked the forward control post of one of the units of the "Western" grouping of troops.

source: Russian MoD, 11h ago

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

View attachment 5180039

What really got my attention was the reference to Lukashenko taking over Wagner. I take that to mean Prigozhin will remain as something like a board-member or CFO, while Wagner's operations will continue from Belarus (and possibly renamed).

I just find it amusing that even Wagner eventually had to leave Russia, just like all the other wildly profitable war-related corporations; all that's left are the willfully ignorant, the apologists, and the corrupt.