Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Not At All A Lizard]

Every time there's any kind of NATO meeting coming up there's endless sperging on the web about what the Ukes must do and how much of a time crunch they're under. It's so fucking dumb. Like NATO is going to take their toys away if they don't take Bakhmut in time to show it in a big juicy powerpoint at the summit. Politicians are retarded but not that retarded.

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

Those helo kills were probably pilots doing rocket lobs

One of those shootdowns was an Mi-8MTPR-1 electronic warfare helo, and I remember someone (probably Girkin, maybe fighterbomber) bitching about how there was no excuse for why it was so close to the border (~50km or so iirc). When reports came out suggesting it may have been a Patriot shootdown, I wondered if the Russians suspected this and had moved this special Mi-8 in to try to counter and/or detect it.

 

[NSJAP]

 

[Pork Packer]

Every time there's any kind of NATO meeting coming up there's endless sperging on the web about what the Ukes must do and how much of a time crunch they're under. It's so fucking dumb. Like NATO is going to take their toys away if they don't take Bakhmut in time to show it in a big juicy powerpoint at the summit. Politicians are retarded but not that retarded.

Personally I just glance at how much time, effort, resources, and how many soldiers NATO was willing to piss away in Afghanistan with a net zero success or strategic gains for 20 fucking years whenever I hear someone argue that this exact same NATO will break apart under the strain of spending far less time, effort, and resources and precisely zero soldiers in order to cripple and castrate its biggest and most insufferable geopolitical headache for near a century, and which has demonstrably shown on multiple occasions that it cannot be trusted even slightly to not respond to attempts to bring them into the fold or cool tensions by stabbing western governments in the back and demanding even more gibdats.

Even if Ukraine was some ultra corrupt and incompetent satanist nazi pedofork dictatorship which faked-and-gayed all their victories and plans on creating the Fourth Reich as soon as the war ends, it is still demonstrably in the interest of the west to keep up the support just to ensure russia is too tied down in the war/after the war to be capable of screwing the west over for a decade or so. Hell this shit was done all the time with far slimmer pretexts and chances of success during the Cold War given all the batshit crazy/horrible regimes the west propped up to indirectly screw with the soviets.

In short, it is 100% the West's cynical, selfish, calculated, and ruthless interests to see russia broken both to neutralise it as a headache, and to serve as a warning for any other state that actively fucks with the west after getting a mountain of unearned concessions in decades past. The only possible spanner in the works would have been the moral argument to inspire mass public outcry against it but....well yeah russia has taken care of it with extreme fucking prejudice since week 1 of its invasion.

 

[draggs]

Every time there's any kind of NATO meeting coming up there's endless sperging on the web about what the Ukes must do and how much of a time crunch they're under. It's so fucking dumb. Like NATO is going to take their toys away if they don't take Bakhmut in time to show it in a big juicy powerpoint at the summit. Politicians are retarded but not that retarded.

It's just cope

Trust me bro pls if Ukraine doesn't reach Vladivostok by the end of the month the West is gonna abandon em bro trust me pls bro

 

[mindlessobserver]

Every time there's any kind of NATO meeting coming up there's endless sperging on the web about what the Ukes must do and how much of a time crunch they're under. It's so fucking dumb. Like NATO is going to take their toys away if they don't take Bakhmut in time to show it in a big juicy powerpoint at the summit. Politicians are retarded but not that retarded.

I think everyone involved in this is resigned for a long war. Everyone that is except the Russian people are are still being promised inevitable victory soon.

Personally I just glance at how much time, effort, resources, and how many soldiers NATO was willing to piss away in Afghanistan with a net zero success or strategic gains for 20 fucking years whenever I hear someone argue that this exact same NATO will break apart under the strain of spending far less time, effort, and resources and precisely zero soldiers in order to cripple and castrate its biggest and most insufferable geopolitical headache for near a century, and which has demonstrably shown on multiple occasions that it cannot be trusted even slightly to not respond to attempts to bring them into the fold or cool tensions by stabbing western governments in the back and demanding even more gibdats.

This. The Ukraine war has been the best thing to happen to NATO since the Prague Spring. Its really sharpened minds in both European political elites, and their rank and file citizenry. You even have the Germans, the most buck broken country in the EU now supporting rearmament. People like the shriek at about how much this is "Costing" NATO. Its not costing NATO anything. As has been repeated, constantly, much of the "expense" has been sending equipment that was just rotting on the shelf over to Ukraine. Like those MRAPS that were built to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan. Wars that are now over. NATO was handing those things over to various police agencies in the US and EU for FREE before they dumped them all on the Ukrainians. Ditto for those up armored Humvees. Even the Leapord Tanks being sent over are line item write offs, being previous generation of non-upgraded hulls. Same for the Bradley's. The US and EU had all of this shit just parked in mothballs.

As for the rest, such as ammunition production, this war has been a gem without price. Its revealed the major structural deficiencies in the western military industrial complex. Deficiencies that are as we speak being corrected. Not to mention being a glorious live fire exercise for weapons platforms and doctrines that until this war had existed solely in theory and computer simulation. The idea NATO would want this shit to end now just "to stop the bleeding" is silly. From a purely utilitarian standpoint, this war can go for years as far as NATO is concerned.

 

[Ghostse]

I wondered if the Russians suspected this and had moved this special Mi-8 in to try to counter and/or detect it.

You have better eyes than me. I'll believe that it was trying to hunt or fuck with the battery; fucked around, found out.
Those expensive and Rare (and not getting parts anymore) electronic warfare helicopters. It'd be a shame if there was some sort of event resulting in there being even fewer of them.

Every time there's any kind of NATO meeting coming up there's endless sperging on the web about what the Ukes must do and how much of a time crunch they're under. It's so fucking dumb. Like NATO is going to take their toys away if they don't take Bakhmut in time to show it in a big juicy powerpoint at the summit. Politicians are retarded but not that retarded.

I'd believe that NATO was about to cut Ukraine loose if they were losing bigly. But Russia's 2022 offensive fizzled with miniscule gains. Ukraine is liberating more territory than it lost, Russia is BTFO to the point they are deploying cold war tanks, and demonstrating on the daily "Oh, right, This is why NATO exists and why you want to be in NATO"

Even the Leapord Tanks being sent over are line item write offs, being previous generation of non-upgraded hulls. Same for the Bradley's. The US and EU had all of this shit just parked in mothballs.

The Humvees & MRAPS are complete write offs - the MRAPS (I should say specifically the MaxxPros and Caimans) are good vehicles for their role, but they were a stop gap vehicle until the JLTV could find a better HUMVEE and the MRAP program could find a better armored truck - and both programs have and are procuring them. And those are definitely scheduled for scrapping if they hadn't been sent because of roll-over issues.

The Leopards are actually probably the most valuable thing that has been sent over. Yes, they weren't upgraded to the latest spec but they could have been if a buyer on the approved list and willing to pay (and wait) for the refurb could be found.

The Bradley's are also somewhat valuable. Sort of like the M113, they have been retired but there's no realistic replacement on any sort of time line. (well, sort of. The Stryker has taken over the M-2's battle taxi role, but he M-3 doesn't have anythign realistic to replace it) OTOH we've handed over 50 of the things, and stockpiles are like 1,000

Major thing I've seen is ex-bloc countries pouncing on the opportunity to retire their soviet equipment to get NATO good boy points, discounts, expedited access to technology packages and "Buy 6 get 4 free (with purchase of service package)" programs.
i.e. Croatia & Czechs sending off their soviet helos so they can get their Blackhawks and Vipers faster.

YEs in the next 1-3, maybe 1-5 years that hurts NATO's combat readiness as a whole - Czech Republic doesn't have their Vipers and Venoms yet - but once those orders are filled that makes NATO stronger; not only have the Czech's upgraded their attack helo fleet, but they are using the same ones as other NATO nations meaning parts stocks are interchangable.
But a Vatnigger doesn't understand the point of having strong allies because Russia has no logistic support and strong allies can buck off your control at any point.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Ukraine is very unlikely to be risking patriots at the front, especially since they'd be of limited use against helos, its more likely they'd be trying to get troops in place with MANPAD.

Conversely, I'd say it's pretty likely that at least one of those batteries got moved close to the front, to cover high-value targets like divisional HQs, armor concentrations getting ready for an assault, etc. Especially if the Russians assume the Ukrainians wouldn't risk it, that all those Patriots are protecting Zelensky's house, and they would be able to detect & kill them if not.

Avoiding SAMs requires you to be low to the ground so the spotting RADAR can't find you. This is white knuckle diamond shitting in any aircraft, but easier to get and stay low in a helo. The corollary to this that being low makes you a target for MANPADS with very little warning.

Now, this all based on my recent conversations with a friend who is a medic in the 66th OMB, and she's often had a front-row seat for Russian combat aviation ops against the storm battalions in their brigade.

Spoiler: Anecdotal

According to her, they have been trying to force Russian rotary & fixed-wings off the deck & into the envelope of Since Russians are creatures of habit, they stick to regular ingress/egress routes; so suddenly being faced with a wall of Gepard or ZSU fire can drive them outside of their "cleared" flight corridors.

But likewise, I expect the Russians to try the same against Ukrainian birds, but now they lack the coordination, experienced manpower, equipment, and sensors; since a lot of Russian integrated AD systems have been droned & HIMARS'd into scrap, now they depend on local control & detection of threats.

I know my friend gets tired of me pestering for information on Russian performance & tactics, but she's a good sport and tells me as much as she can. And as of early this spring, I stopped having even a rough idea of her location; before the counter-offensive started she was in the Bakhmut area, and I know that only because she named a village nearby where something bad happened.

All I know is that wherever she is now, they've been very busy. At most she'll send me a greeting-card image or emojis, which is her way of letting her friends & family know that she's alive; having already been wounded twice & getting stuck in a field hospital for a week with no contact with anyone.

Perun covered it in his video, but the KA-52 that was picking off bradleys was launching from about 10KM away, outside of most short range AD. It was likely hugging the ground and safe from SAMs.

Whoever was driving those 52's knew what they were doing, but that doesn't seem to be the norm.

Those helo kills were probably pilots doing rocket lobs, gaining altitude and getting picked up by SAMs, and thinking what had them was an S-300 system and they would have time to drop altitude and loose lock by the time the missile was in range. Instead they got a faster missile with longer & better terminal guidance.

That sort of complacency is also why I figure the Ukrainians have snuck at least one Patriot battery close to the border and/or front line. Those rocket flings are pretty much a nuisance, but the helicopters making them are still very tempting targets.

 

[mindlessobserver]

But a Vatnigger doesn't understand the point of having strong allies because Russia has no logistic support and strong allies can buck off your control at any point.

And this right here has been the fundamental misunderstanding of the American Empire that the Russian Empire never has, and probably never will understand. For that matter I doubt many of the current crop of cretins in Washington DC understand it either, but that's a story for another time. The American Empire does not function much like a centralized authority and more like a confederation of like minded nobles. Honestly its more Holy Roman Empire then the EU, which usually gets the moniker. No constituent part of the American Empire actually is "made" to be a part of it. And if for whatever reason they want to leave, there is little chance of an army showing up the next day informing them they can't. They just choose to join and remain because the benefits far outweigh the costs.

And those costs can be SEVERE. Consider the Philippines. Who went through a serious "fuck you dad" phase. Kicking out the evil colonizers and their bases. Now the Chinese are on their doorstep and Manila is desperately trying to back track but do it in a way that does not make them look like fucking imbeciles before their voters. In many Respects the same could be said for Australia and New Zealand too, along with a large swath of the American Dependencies in the South Pacific which had, right up until China made a big dick move to politically take control of the Solomon Islands been making moves similar to what the Philippines had done.

Because fundamentally the only thing the US demands from its "empire" is open trade and economies, and lip service to democratic norms. As well as a promise to not interfere if the US decides it does not like someone. All very small asks. Compared to what Russia or China demand of their imperial satrapy's.

 

[Ghostse]

Whoever was driving those 52's knew what they were doing, but that doesn't seem to be the norm.

Knew what they were doing and because of that bint in Parlement knew where they were. Easy to be a pro when you have plenty of time to set up your shots.

Conversely, I'd say it's pretty likely that at least one of those batteries got moved close to the front, to cover high-value targets like divisional HQs, armor concentrations getting ready for an assault, etc. Especially if the Russians assume the Ukrainians wouldn't risk it, that all those Patriots are protecting Zelensky's house, and they would be able to detect & kill them if not.

Oh I'm not saying they're all watching Kiev, I meant more of a "Close enough to the border to be able to reach over it deep enough to hit an attack helo" since that would put them at potential risk for arty.

 

[Uranus Pink]

@Ghostse The Bradleys are extremely valuable to the Ukrainians for the crew protection they provide.
Secondly Strykers ain't replacements for the Bradleys as the U.S. Army currently have the OMFV program for that. Which its number one priority is survivability; and thanks to this conflict even more emphasis will be place on keeping the crews and passengers safe.

 

[Snekposter]

Same for the Bradley's.

God... those are mid 90's M2A2-ODS versions that have been sitting in a warehouse for what, almost three decades? Shipping them to Ukraine is saving us money that would have otherwise been spent on keeping them serviced and maintained in a functional state for God knows how much longer. They've been a net loss to the USA until now. The only fucks we give regarding them is if their Ukrainian crews can take out a few Russians before it gets nailed and we ship them another obsolete write-off of an IFV.

OTOH we've handed over 50 of the things, and stockpiles are like 1,000

See above. So long as the Russians are forced to expend something more valuable than a mine to take one out, and as long as the crew survive to get a replacement, we're laughing like Ray Liotta at how cheaply we're engaging in this proxy war. Hell, the USA doesn't even want M113's anymore since the AMPV is entering service... which is a turretless Bradley optimized for transport duties and so does everything the M113 does but better. And the M113 does a lot since I know a guy who knows a guy who uses it on his ranch as a PTO-equipped all-purpose tractor vehicle.

And those costs can be SEVERE. Consider the Philippines. Who went through a serious "fuck you dad" phase. Kicking out the evil colonizers and their bases.

Idiots. The USA must be the only evil Western colonizer who in living memory built an entire nation out of a few islands of warring tribesmen and then fairly negotiated and then granted independence to that nation we built at our own expense. 48 years from takeover to independence, 1898-1946. We built schools, hospitals, churches, turned Manila from an neglected galleon-era trade port to a bustling, modern city. Have a picture of Manila right before the Japanese showed up:

Hell, the Philippine Organic Act of 1902 that established them as a formal territory essentially put the entire country under the protection of the Constitution.

Sec. 4. That all inhabitants of the Philippine Islands continuing to reside therein who were Spanish subjects on the eleventh day of April, eighteen hundred and ninety-nine, and then resided in the Philippine Islands, and their children born subsequent thereto, shall be deemed and held to be citizens of the Philippine Islands and as such entitled to the protection of the United States, except such as shall have elected to preserve their allegiance to the Crown of Spain in accordance with the provisions of the treaty of peace between the United States and Spain signed at Paris December tenth, eighteen hundred and ninety-eight.

Sec. 5. That no law shall be enacted in said Islands which shall deprive any person of life, liberty, or property without due process of law, or deny to any person therein the equal protection of the laws.

That in all criminal prosecutions the accused shall enjoy the right to be heard by himself and counsel, to demand the nature and cause of the accusation against him, to have a speedy and public trial, to meet the witnesses face to face, and to have compulsory process to compel the attendance of witnesses in his behalf.

That no person shall be held to answer for a criminal offense without due process of law; and no person for the same offense shall be twice put in jeopardy of punishment, nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself.

That all persons shall before conviction be bailable by sufficient sureties, except for capital offenses.

That no law impairing the obligation of contracts shall be enacted.

That no person shall be imprisoned for debt.

That the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in cases of rebellion, insurrection, or invasion the public safety may require it, in either of which events the same may be suspended by the President, or by the Governor, with the approval of the Philippine Commission, wherever during such period the necessity for such suspension shall exist.

That no ex post facto law or bill of attainder shall be enacted.

That no law granting a title of nobility shall be enacted, and no person holding any office of profit or trust in said Islands, shall without the consent of the Congress of the United States, accept any present, emolument, office, or title of any kind whatever from any king, queen, prince, or foreign State.

That excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishment inflicted.

That the right to be secure against unreasonable searches and seizures shall not be violated.

That neither slavery, nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist in said Islands.

That no law shall be passed abridging the freedom of speech or of the press, or the right of the people peaceably to assemble and petition the Government for redress of grievances.

That no law shall be made respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof, and that the free exercise and enjoyment of religious profession and worship, without discrimination or preference, shall forever be allowed.

That no money shall be paid out of the Treasury except in pursuance of an appropriation by law.

That the rule of taxation in said Islands shall be uniform.

That no private or local bill which may be enacted into law shall embrace more than one subject, and that subject shall be expressed in the title of the bill.

That no warrant shall issue but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched and the person or things to be seized.

That all money collected on any tax levied or assessed for a special purpose shall be treated as a special fund in the Treasury and paid out for such purpose only.

 

[Ghostse]

@Ghostse The Bradleys are extremely valuable to the Ukrainians

I'm not speaking from a value on the battlefield, I mean from a "list price to replace the equipment"/"is this still a procured vehicle that could be sold?" - that is, does sending this equipment actually really cost anything? If I go on vacation and give you a gallon of milk that would have expired when I was away, you gain a gallon of milk but I lose nothing as I'd have had to toss it out when I got back - yes, I had to buy the milk at one point, but it cost me virtually nothing giving it you.

MaxxPros are very valuable to Ukraine, but on the US surplus vehicle lists they are pretty much just scrap since they'd never be used again due to roll-over issues. Transferring them to Ukraine probably is saving money by not having to keep them serviced. They don't "cost" anything to give away.

As I said the Bradley's are tricker because while they're officially retired, the replacement for a real IFV/Armored scout isn't ready yet. So that's harder quantify because right now Bradleys are still in service with some units so by sending armored reserve to Ukraine, you are reducing the ability to form new units and replace any losses. But as you point out, the replacement is coming and once its ready, the Bradleys are scrap & gate decorators. So the "cost" is some compromise between "making sure you have enough to meet needs until the replacement is ready" and "any of these things we still have 5 years or so will be worthless".

The Leopard I 's "cost" because there are export buyers and operators of Leopard I's; Its possible you could find a buyer who take the tanks and pay for the upgrade package.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

I think everyone involved in this is resigned for a long war. Everyone that is except the Russian people are are still being promised inevitable victory soon.

One has to wonder, where "special military operation" ends and the war begins in their minds, and how effective playing semantics really is at this point.
You've committed more resources to this war than both Chechen Wars combined, got more people killed, so I guess it's fair to say... ?

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

I like it.
Needs more glyphs, bosspole and red paintjob to help with rokkit boosta.

I wouldnt be surprised if somewhere else on the front there was something similar, but with the addition of crudely bolted-on scrap metal/ERA for better protection.

WAAAAAGH!

 

[namai337]

One has to wonder, where "special military operation" ends and the war begins in their minds, and how effective playing semantics really is at this point.
You've committed more resources to this war than both Chechen Wars combined, got more people killed, so I guess it's fair to say... ?

Its going to happen when something happens back home like the apartment bombings that kickstarted the Chechen wars or hell ukies really gear up and hit kremlin with something really powerful or they finally lose Crimea

 

[mindlessobserver]

Fresh Fog of War mystery!. Ukrainian troops advancing have come across a compacted pallet of mystery meat. /uhg/ claims its the trash compacted remains of Mobiks, /chug/ say's it rotting pig carcasses. You decide!

Spoiler: The Mobik Cube

In all seriousness, its probably not mobiks trash compacted into an easy to transport form, but the Russians and Russiaboos seem really triggered by it.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Just saw on Russian TV in one of their "analytical" propaganda shows some "analyst" saying that Ukraine destroyed Kakhovka dam, just matter-of-factly while talking about something else happening in that direction. "So the Kakhovka dam that Kiev regime destroyed blah-blah-blah created islands they're now trying to take blah-blah-blah".
Absolutely shameless motherfuckers. For some reason I was always more eager to see propagandists hanging from the lampposts than even politicians. Fucking filth.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Just saw on Russian TV in one of their "analytical" propaganda shows some "analyst" saying that Ukraine destroyed Kakhovka dam, just matter-of-factly while talking about something else happening in that direction. "So the Kakhovka dam that Kiev regime destroyed blah-blah-blah created islands they're now trying to take blah-blah-blah".
Absolutely shameless motherfuckers. For some reason I was always more eager to see propagandists hanging from the lampposts than even politicians. Fucking filth.

Must be insufferable. How do they claim flooding downriver and increasing the downriver flow of the Dnieper CREATES Islands. Never mind the rest. That does not make any sense.

 

[Uranus Pink]

Currently been seeing both pro-Ukraine and pro-Russia sides losing their shit over what to do with all of the "Nazis," "fascists," "ring-wingers" who're fighting for Ukraine once the war is over and they start going home.

Edit: Spacebattles is completely oblivious or faking it to what "re-education not possible" means to noncommunists. As any thing that phrase is used is right before the unre-educationable population is rounded up and genocided.