Thought I would lay out the potential hypotheses for what has happened, usually during investigations detectives create hypothesis and rule them out as evidence emerges that rule them out. I actually don't think we can rule any of them out in a technical sense, but I will say that the likelihood she is still alive is looking incredibly slim.
JF Killed her.
JF claims he dropped her off in the middle of nowhere on 17 Jun 23, and she was living with him prior to that. For me, what we do know is that she was living with JF until 17 Jun 23. If she is dead he now has the means, and the capability, to commit the crime.
Means alone does not make someone a suspect, unless all other options are exhausted, with JF we also have something of a motive - that being he's clearly a controlling partner and Mama JF was not always compliant. When people leave a controlling partner, this is often the most dangerous period of time as the partner escalates their controlling behaviour to bring them back under their control.
When things escalate a lot it can lead to murder.
In addition to this, JFs behaviour after she left is highly suspicious. Primarily, not contacting the police to inform them she is missing. Him seemingly not caring what has happened to her, beyond the fact he is being accused of murder. The fact he frenetically cleaned his house the day after. Admittedly, it is possible whatever cocktail of personality disorders is a potential explanation of all of this - but even so, this is suspicious and should be treated as such.
Evidence against?
The
RCMP stated that she was sighted in Moncton two days later on 19 June 23, although I think that we can't treat that as confirmed until we know how it was confirmed. CCTV systems usually only store footage for up to 14 days. From personal experience, even high security environments will rarely have CCTV that stores footage longer than 3 months (unless you specify footage you want saved) and as a result I highly doubt any cameras in the area would have footage to confirm that sighting. I posted earlier that witness evidence is pretty unreliable - however the caveat being unless they had a reason to remember her. Maybe she had an interaction with someone that was so out of the ordinary they have a clear memory of it. For example, I was subjected to an insane Australian schitzophrenic on a train journey back in February - if I was asked to recall if I had seen a woman matching her description even now, I would be able to confirm that.
Now even if that sighting is true it doesn't completely rule out JF being involved in foul play - but it does cast some doubt on it. At that point you are potentially looking at some sort of weird prearrange scheme where he would meet up with her and kill her at a later date - after sanitising his house. It doesn't seem likely. May he could have hired a hitman, but this is just speculative at this point.
Mama JF left and...
It is worth noting that despite not trusting a word that comes out of the frogs mouth, Mama JF has exhibited some of this behaviour previously. She also exhibits lots of other
strange behaviours, her strange rant at No White Guilt, her spray painting graffiti praising JF and
if JF is to be believed her life prior to meeting him seemed to be not very tied down to any specific location. Going on such a trip is not necessarily out of the question for Mama JF.
If the aforementioned sighting on the 19 June 23 is to be believed, then she did indeed leave and made it out of the house alive and she is out there. It was pointed out earlier that for her to make it from where she was dropped off at on Prince Edwards Island to Moncton on foot, it would take her 61 hours of walking. This however is misleading, as it would also involve a ferry trip which she had no means to pay for. If she walked across the bridge from her drop off the walk would be about 110km, and would take about 30 hours - possible to complete in the time she had, but also highly unlikely.
You could walk on the bridge, but I wouldn't fancy it. It's also not allowed, they do however operate a shuttle service for C$4.75.
Point is, she may have hitchhiked, she may have got the shuttle, but it is incredibly unlikely she made her way across that bridge alone. If she lacked funds - then the shuttle seems unlikely, as you would then need to also explain how she got to Moncton. I think that if she was in fact spotted in Moncton she got there with the assistance of someone else.
died by other means.
Hitchhiking is dangerous, if she was hitchhiking there is always an inherent risk in doing this - her being special needs will exacerbate her vulnerability. It could be that she got picked up by a trucker, raped and disposed of in a ditch out in the Canadian wilderness - or any variation on that theme
Maybe she had an accident instead, fell off a cliff, a bridge, drowned. Eaten by a fucking bear. Maybe she OD'd in a crackden in Moncton and all the junkies have just stuffed her under the couch.
Personally, I think the chances of her death being caused by the trip but not JF are not low. It would explain everything we have seen so far, minus JFGs odd behaviour - but as already stated, it is not like he's not already a deranged weirdo.
she is still out there.
There is also the possibility she is still alive, and you can narrow this down to if it's her own choice to be gone, or whether she is stuck.
Maybe that trucker kidnapped her and just kept hold of her. She's a prisoner in his sex dungeon. This is highly unlikely, but not impossible - there have been many high profile cases of people being abducted and held against their will for years on end.
If she is out there on her own, then she would have needed to find somewhere to live, a means of supporting herself and done all of this whilst not drawing the attention of the authorities or people in general. We could probably rule out women's shelters, prisons and hospitals, as these are all places police would check in the first instance - in fact they will all most likely receive a BOLO about her. There is however the possibility she had organised to go and live with someone else, or some others ahead of time and went to be with them. This could explain why she would be off the grid completely. Still, all of that sounds fairly far fetched and I don't think it is likely at all she could achieve all of that almost undetected.
Conclusions
At this point the lack of available information means that I don't think we can rule out any possibility at this point. If the RCMP report of her being seen on the 19 Jun 23 is true, then we can rule out her being killed in the JF household, or in his car. While it doesn't rule out JF as a culprit entirely, I do think that if the sighting was real then the likelihood that he had any direct involvement is lower than initially thought. He could still return to kill her, he could hire a hitman, but without evidence of this ultimately it's just speculation.
While she could be out there undetected of her own volition, as time goes on I believe this is becomes increasingly unlikely - barring a secret and unknown benefactor helping her hide I do not think this would be possible to achieve in the modern day, especially for someone like Mama JF who would immediately be identified as a human-potato crossbreed.
Her being killed or kidnapped while hitchhiking is also a major possibility here, it's a high risk issue, there are parts of Canada which it is well known to happen in and Mama JF is especially vulnerable.
If, and it is a big if, that sighting is confirmed to be Mama JF then I am leaning towards the left on her own, and was killed by something or someone else rather than JF. If not, he is still suspect number 1.
