The better question to ask is just how accurate are Hamas's (or Hezbollah's) rockets
This question didn't help my insomnia, so I got up seeking to answer it.
I did find this low resolution chart on the various types of rockets used if anybody just wants to see that and not read a novella-
I should note that I am in no way any sort of expert on rocketry, aeronautics, or the military application of such, so if anybody is for some reason citing their paper off a kiwi farms post I strongly suggest you rethink your options.
Amateur rocketry is a hobby shared by many, most of these enthusiasts not being terrorists. So there's quite a bit of material and theory on how to make homemade rockets, though the ones by Hamas are obviously a fair bit larger. It's also not easy- literally rocket science isn't that simple, wow, what a shock. Now, what Hamas and similar groups use when they can, and what their own homemade rockets are (at least somewhat) based off of, are Grad rockets, which come in types so numerous that it's easier to just call them that since they're generally the same thing. A 122 millimeter diameter warhead stuck on a three meter rocket. The reason why they use those are exceedingly obvious. The Soviet Union, every successor state, and every country that uses slav shit used and uses a ton of Grads, so there's an absolute shit ton of Grad rockets to go around, and chances are they might not even be half rotten from sitting in a warehouse. There's also a bunch of bigger rockets, as pictured, but a bigger rocket isn't necessarily a more accurate one, they're more difficult to smuggle and store and hide, it's harder to bullshit a launch platform for, it's not as numerous, et cetera.
What most people think of when you mention a Grad. A happy truck with a bunch of happy rockets ready to make anybody not in a fortified position very unhappy.
This is a Grad-P, for launching a singular rocket. Pack it up, go to a cheeky place, fire it off and run. Even those uninitiated to rocket artillery bombardments can probably see where this is going.
This is an example of a Qassam type rocket and their launch rails. These are extremely primitive examples, and earlier in the thread there were videos of much more sophisticated multiple launch style platforms, but when you're launching as assload of rockets to overwhelm interception systems and you're an insurgent group then you can't be that picky.
Getting back to the original point of how accurate these are- you might think, when you're shooting at a
city, surely it's not that hard to hit, right?
Well, no. It turns out the launch platforms, which are much larger, less numerous, and more difficult to smuggle compared to the rockets, are an important part of making sure the rocket flies correctly. Normally, a Grad launcher system can hit within 300 meters of a target in its range. Considering they're multiple launch systems organized in batteries, this radius is plenty sufficient to use against tactical targets, let alone an entire city. However, when the Grad rocket does not have the launch platform that spin stabilizes it, and is launched by an untrained operator from equipment not designed to handle it, then there's a solid chance that the rocket's going to be extremely off target. That's from proper military rockets- the homemade rockets are obviously going to perform even worse, especially since they are (at least mostly) not designed to spin during flight. Doing a proper deep dive into Hamas improved rockets and launch platforms is something hard to gather information for since they don't exactly report their inventory numbers and their prototypes have a good chance of being more for propaganda rather than something fielded in large numbers, but since they're not going to have the sort of manufacturing needed to make proper military grade rocket artillery there's going to be a limitation by nature no matter how good it looks while techno-jihad is playing over it.
TL;DR
What I could find for average accuracy over all attacks was a less than 50% hit probability at best. So extremely inaccurate even when shooting at a target the size of Moviebob.
