Plummeting Birthrates Watch Thread - The horrifying implications of living in a Children of Men situation.

[Alex Hogendorp]

Throughout most countries around the world except for most of Africa, the Middle East, some countries in Asia and Latin America. Birthrates have been plummeting throughout most of the world. The western world has seen a Sexual Revolution which has revolutionized how humans view sex in a more liberal and lustful manner (LGBT, Millions of Genders, Abortion, etc). This in turn has caused the entirety of the western world to have a birth rate well below the replacement level. The Situation in countries such as East Asia (With exception to Mongolia and North Korea). The birthrates are at it's absolute lowest. In Japan. Rural Areas are becoming abandoned with a lot of Schools shutting down and Vacant housing. In South Korea, People are mentioning how finding a child is such a rare occurrence. In China, there a copious amounts of abandoned cities with massive apartment complex's crumbling or in many cases entire cities being demolished. For countries in Eastern Europe. The Aftershocks for World War II has really hit them hard, with Ukraine having the worst birthrates out of them all with countries like Romania, Bulgaria, Belarus and Russia projected to have a situation similar to East Asia within the next decade. This is the map with the birth rates as of 2022.

Romania Population Chart

Japan Population Chart

South Korea's Population is eventually going to drop too.

China's population chart.

Population Chart in Russia showing the aftershocks of the World War II is still in effect.

To get an insight on what we're going to go through. These videos show the horrifying reality of living in a children of men situation in such an extreme magnitude.

Note the videos are mentioned are fairly liberal in their solutions so I decided to add a video that contradicts the liberal argument to the solution.

 

[Judge Dredd]

There is a documentry called "Birthgap" that goes into this. Parts of it are on YouTube, and the guy does interviews about it. Might be worth adding to the OP.

Not watched the videos in the OP yet (I've skimmed the first one), but I assume it's the same information. Declining birth rates below replacement rate. The decline is kickstarted by economic problems such as the oil shock in the 1970s that make birth rates slump, but unlike previous economic set backs, it never recovers after that.



On the topic of solutions. This is one of the frustrating elements about the problem is the liberal solutions of mass immigration and financial incentives don't fix it, and other possible solutions are considered verboten. Birthgap doesn't propose solutions for this reason. It's also not a topic you can discuss with boomer normies because they don't want to hear it. I tried to bring it up just a couple of weeks ago when some boomers were talking about a local school closing down, and they just ignored it.

And for those wondering.

• Financial incentives won't work because it's yet more tax that will be moved around and doesn't address the actual problems. It could also creates incentive for other social problems caused by people having kids they don't want just for the payout. Cutting tax and lowering the cost of housing, living, etc. might work, but that's one of those options you're not allowed to discuss.
• Mass immigration won't work because their populations are also starting to collapse. They also don't integrate and create a tax burden, meaning less money for the financial incentives.
• Automation might work, but that assumes a lot of things will be made and go off as planned. Given that things like drone delivery and self driving cars have been "a few years away" for over a decade now, the idea of an almost totally automated economy is not one we can rely on.

And for the sake of completeness. The usual conservatives take of "banning birth control" won't work because all that will do is create accidental births nobody wanted, possibly leading to other social problems down the line. Even if there is no unintended consequences, I doubt accidental births will be enough to make up the difference. Birth control also doesn't line up with the timeline of when birthrates declined, so there isn't any real statistical link between the two.

 

[Buttigieg2020]

Time to promote families in them Chinese cartoons. It will be necessary to shift the culture over having kids.



Japan somehow has the highest fertility rate in east Asia now lol.


Housing blocs for cheap family only housing will probably end up being used. That was how the Soviets handled the problem.

 

[Waifu Denier]

I'd expect certain countries to get hit especially hard. So many systems were created with present taxpayers funding current retirees, necessarily meaning that to sustain such a system, you need a constant measure of population growth. It's why places such as the US have been increasingly moving to individual 401Ks and Roth IRAs for retirement instead of traditional pensions and even social security, because you can't depend on the sustainability of the current system.

Ironically, immigration helps the most generous welfare states the least. because welfare states tend to have low income inequality, high taxes, and a relatively flat return to skill. Contrasting with more unequal countries such as the US, and you get negative selection with immigrants, the good conditions for those on the low end of income attracts the exact types of people you would expect, while countries with less taxes and more unequal income distributions give higher returns to skill for those at the high end of skill, and empirically you can see this in modern immigration trends. Although this just goes to show that to maintain your generous welfare state, which in itself is not a bad thing,, you need strict controls on migration because you are losing out on the high skilled workers while being highly attractive to low skill workers who won't contribute much if at all to maintaining it.

 

[Judge Dredd]

It's why places such as the US have been increasingly moving to individual 401Ks and Roth IRAs for retirement instead of traditional pensions and even social security, because you can't depend on the sustainability of the current system.

Healthcare too.

I think this is the unstated reason why every party that gets into power promising to cut taxes and reduce immigration ends up increasing both. Once elected, they are shown a chart that shows the impending collapse. The only option that isn't political suicide is to plug the gap with mass immigrants, tax rises, and inflation.

Housing blocs for cheap family only housing will probably end up being used. That was how the Soviets handled the problem.

That will never be allowed to happen in the UK. Boomers care only about the NHS and making sure house prices keep going up.

It will be necessary to shift the culture over having kids.

One of those verboten solutions. Getting rid of man hating feminism, and related things like the family court system favouring women, is something that can't be suggested in polite normie society.

 

[Alex Hogendorp]

Time to promote families in them Chinese cartoons. It will be necessary to shift the culture over having kids.

View attachment 5441983

Japan somehow has the highest fertility rate in east Asia now lol.


Housing blocs for cheap family only housing will probably end up being used. That was how the Soviets handled the problem.

It's unfortunate that the current Japanese Government thinks otherwise against the wishes of Japanese people. The Japanese Prime Minister recently sold out to the World Economic Forum which is one of the main factors of White Genocide and Adrenochrome harvesting.

 

[JoseRaulChupacabra]

Not to be a doomer here (ok, maybe this is dooming), but aren't the effects of these pretty much baked in when the developed world skipped it for the past few decades? I hear even the developing world is catching this as well.

Even if you could suddenly inspire fecundity in your populations, the present shortage (and it's inevitable effect) isn't going away.

 

[Alex Hogendorp]

Not to be a doomer here (ok, maybe this is dooming), but aren't the effects of these pretty much baked in when the developed world skipped it for the past few decades? I hear even the developing world is catching this as well.

Even if you could suddenly inspire fecundity in your populations, the present shortage (and it's inevitable effect) isn't going away.

I think the comforting bliss of bread and circuses with advancing technology have a major factor to play for this. For example. South Korea being in the worst shape in the 1950s have an abundance of baby booming despite how debilitating it was. People in South Korea nowadays are not equipped with giving birth as it's too debilitating for being too expensive and because of it the fertility rate is so low and it's population is falling faster than ever. They never had any experience growing up in South Korea in it's worst shape after the war. The notion "weak men create hard times" really hits hard when you think about it. Why raise a child when you can easily sit on the couch farting during your favorite football game?

 

[Magicicada_septendecula]

I'm not too worried about population decline itself. I worry about the people who insist that mass immigration from countries that have never come close to achieving what the west has achieved is the solution. I don't recall a single time in history when a civilization has disappeared because the people voluntarily started having fewer babies. It appears countries have a default population (~10 million for Korea, ~30 million for Japan for example) that skyrockets as soon as industrialization takes place. It will take a few life times before they go back to that default and a lot could happen that might cause people to see the need for more children.
That said, I'm actually on the side of Elon Musk in that I think we could use more people because all the great things we could do colonizing space. We could have 100 billion people though and nothing good would happen if all the countries that have a history of innovation are flooded with people from places where the average IQ is that of our institutionalized retards and the remaining pockets of innovative people are in persecuted and ever-dwindling enclaves. If it is a problem, it's one we should solve on our own.

 

[Alex Hogendorp]

I'm not too worried about population decline itself. I worry about the people who insist that mass immigration from countries that have never come close to achieving what the west has achieved is the solution. I don't recall a single time in history when a civilization has disappeared because the people voluntarily started having fewer babies. It appears countries have a default population (~10 million for Korea, ~30 million for Japan for example) that skyrockets as soon as industrialization takes place. It will take a few life times before they go back to that default and a lot could happen that might cause people to see the need for more children.
That said, I'm actually on the side of Elon Musk in that I think we could use more people because all the great things we could do colonizing space. We could have 100 billion people though and nothing good would happen if all the countries that have a history of innovation are flooded with people from places where the average IQ is that of our institutionalized retards and the remaining pockets of innovative people are in persecuted and ever-dwindling enclaves. If it is a problem, it's one we should solve on our own.

Believe me when I say Niger and many other African countries would feel the effects of population decline around 30 - 50 years from now. Have them plummet from 5 billion to around 100 million when they struggle to give up the conveniences of bread and circuses they had for so long. Seriously. I remember Algerian world cup fans protesting the outcomes of a match against Cameroon that got Algeria eliminated from the World Cup.

 

[mofu mofo]

Automation might work, but that assumes a lot of things will be made and go off as planned.

Automation was supposed to have freed us from working more than 20 hours a week by the turn of the century. What it actually did was make it easier for the owners of the machines to skim off money from the economy.


A slightly declining population itself isn't that bad (unless you're in the Perpetual Economic Growth™ fanclub, in which case it's extremely triggering) in countries with a welfare state, the problem comes from how upside down the population pyramid is. You can also have a pop. pyramid the right way up and still have it be a problem; if everybody is paying out the arse to feed and clothe 5 kids it limits any economic activity outside of that. It's all about the dependency ratio i.e. how many dependent kids or fogeys there are for each worker. That's why the 'demographic dividend' is the result of a fall in the birthrate; that drop in birthrate manifests as a large cohort of young people entering the workforce who put their efforts into working and shopping instead of trying to Zerg Rush the future.

 

[Justa Grata Honoria]

One of those verboten solutions. Getting rid of man hating feminism, and related things like the family court system favouring women, is something that can't be suggested in polite normie society.

Seriously i hear this man hating family court bs but statistics and explanation care to anyone explain to me on what are you basing this? Like right now most countries dont have gender specific laws regarding family court both can become primary custody holder, the asset split works both ways regardless who made what during the marriage. All i hear reee family court



literally two out of nine .

 

[Named User]

The issue is kids cartoons suck now. Why would I want to have a kid if that means I have to watch Bluey with them all the time?

 

[Dysnomia]

Cutting tax and lowering the cost of housing, living, etc. might work, but that's one of those options you're not allowed to discuss.

This would really be good if it was an actual option. We have all these resources. All this food and land.But yet we still have poverty because of greed.

I don't have the money to have children. No one's going to miss my contribution to genetics. I think a lot of people feel that way. "I'm poor. Me not having kids won't make a dent in anything". Lots of people feel the world sucks too much to bring kids into it. Or they live in areas where they feel it's unsafe and they have little prospect of affording better.

Also, I feel like tastes have changed? If that's the right word. People want to live life untethered. Women want to have purpose other than being tied to children and the kitchen. They just don't feel fulfilled. I think that there's a lot of women very happy with being single or child free and all those whiny articles about how that's false are sampling a tiny amount of women who never know what they want anyway. We're not walking wombs and shouldn't be seen as such.

But I don't see it as a man problem or a woman problem. It's a society problem. It's bundled in with so many other factors. Social media has made it so easy to connect yet everyone seems a lot more lonely. We've become too complacent behind our screens. So people interact less irl unless they arranged some meeting or date online. Then you see how much the wallflower population has increased. You've got all these kids playing on TikTok all day growing up without learning that you can't act that way face to face. So we've got the most social era ever churning out the most socially stunted people.

Maybe getting away from the screen would help? Not with the financial stuff. But maybe people could connect better if they did things the old fashioned way more often.

 

[Unexpected Genitals]

The issue is kids cartoons suck now. Why would I want to have a kid if that means I have to watch Bluey with them all the time?

I agree in principle, but Bluey is the wrong example to use, it's a genuinely good kids show. Garbage like Cocomelon is what should be avoided.

 

[Otterly]

If you want people to breed you have to put them in a situation that’s conducive to breeding. What is NOT conducive to breeding:
- overcrowding. Cities are population sinks
- college for all! By the time you’ve got a degree and a PhD you’re mid twenties and in debt, and barely a foot on the ladder. You’ve torpedoed your fertile young years
- houses costing a foetunr
- jobs needing higher degrees or degrees when really they don’t.
- needing both parents to work full time to afford to live
- lack of community. Parents miles or whole countries away when their kids moved for work can’t be easy access grandparents. That’s less family childcare, and more stress.
- stress
- environmental fertility depressors like oestrogenic pollutants. And cities.
If you’ve got lab mice and you put them in shit conditions they pine away and die or eat each other. If you put them in a nice cage with some loo roll middles to play with, good mouse chow, clean litter and some hobnob biscuits (lab secret formula) they breed like crazy.
Humans need space, clean air, good food and conducive conditions as well. Almost none of modern life provides this. This isn’t a man problem or a woman problem or a family court problem. It’s a mouse utopia problem

 

[Kari Kamiya]

Yeah, Africa has a high birthrate, but legit, how many of those babies have managed to survive to be able to have children of their own? They're having so many babies because they're still living in dire, filthy, war-torn situations that would end up crippling tribe populations that the more children someone has, the more likely a handful of them will survive. Of course, the AIDS crisis makes this a legit wonder that any child born with HIV in such shitty conditions manages to even survive to puberty.

Perhaps the true solution to solving the birthrate crisis would be to return to monke. Hmm.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

The problem of birthrates isn't that the developed world is having too little kids but that the developing world is having WAY too many kids, as OP's post states:

except for most of Africa, the Middle East, some countries in Asia and Latin America. Birthrates have been plummeting throughout most of the world.

The world can't take billions more humans as it is, with climate change and other ecocides we are committing on it. Highly educated, affluent people in well-developed societies have the happiest lives with the highest life expectancy and quality of health, be it Iceland, Sweden or Japan. They may not have great birth rates, but it's not like the relatively small mountainous archipelago nation of Japan really needs more the 120 million people on it.

 

[Ughubughughughughughghlug]

with climate change and other ecocides we are committing on it

Faggot
Go back to San Francisco

 

[Sneed's Feed And Seed]

Faggot
Go back to San Francisco

I'm sorry, the answer we were looking for was "Why don't you kill yourself to help stem population growth?"

Tough break, Ughubug. It's still your board.