Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Ashkenazi Porn Actress]

Nord Stream Probe Hampered by Resistance From Poland - "Polish officials have resisted cooperating with an international probe into the sabotage of the Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines and failed to disclose potentially crucial evidence" "[they] withheld key evidence"

Anybody with half a brain i.e. most people who aren't journalists and "foreign policy experts" have already suspected that the attack was signed off by the Poles (wanted to fuck over Germany, don't want lose gas transit shekels), the Danes (wanted to fuck over Germany, wanted to prevent Germany from being a energy resource hub) and the Swedes (they're just fucking gay).

 

[Male Idiot]

They really want to trialnon, heh, the ruskies.

Like it did good for Imperial Germany.

They don't realise that if the kings had nukes, that wouldn't fly.

Well in case of Hungary, nukes would have went fly.

 

[Elwood P. Dowd]

The US held a secret meeting to discuss peace with various countries and Ukraine last month.according to Bloomberg.

Saudi Arabia was host to the talks. The aim of the talks was supposedly to convince countries outside the G7 in private to adopt the Ukrainian "peace plan". The Ukrainian peace plan being in reality an ultimatum for an unconditional surrender of Russia, massive economic reparations including surrender to international control of the Russian energy industry and war crimes trials for many Russians. The other part of the peace formula is no talking with Russia about peace or even an end to hostilities.

China was not invited. Brazil and the UAE did not attend. Two of the countries they were attempting to strongarm were India and Turkey.

The result of the meeting was supposedly no interest shown by the G7 in changing the Ukrainian peace ultimatum and no interest in talks with Russia. The other countries showed no particular interest in signing on to Ukraine's "peace process".

https://archive.is/m0384

Kyiv and its G-7 allies reaffirmed their view that a just peace needs to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals hadn’t changed and he’s shown no sign of being serious about wanting substantive negotiations and has failed to respect past agreements. The allies made clear they will continue backing Ukraine, and the EU and the US said they were confident that the support packages would be agreed.

What "agreement" has Russia "failed to respect?" And how does the record stand on NATO "respecting" "agreements?"

The big issue to me is Putin flat out saying for decades Russia would not tolerate Ukraine in NATO, and any attempt along those lines would mean war. NATO apparently thought he was bluffing or too weak to actually do anything, and here we are.

 

[Gondolindrim]

The plan seems to be to try and get Russia to agree to a "deal" that does nothing but hurt them, and then when Putin inevitably rejects it they can justify escalating the war (in a way that doesn't put NATO boots on the ground - officially). Between Ukraine and Israel, it's hard to tell which conflict is more essential to the machine because I expected us to abandon Ukraine months ago. Biden must have some serious fucking stake in making sure Zelensky doesn't have peace.

 

[Betonhaus]

The US held a secret meeting to discuss peace with various countries and Ukraine last month.according to Bloomberg.

Honestly I'm still surprised that they don't see this train wreck a mile away. Russia has zero incentive to abide by a "peace plan" much less one this lopsided. In three months they will expect Russia to abide by it, and in six months they will be "applying pressure", and in nine months they will be panicking because it's a US election year. I don't see how they can escalate, as Russia can bomb any troops or weapons the moment they hit Ukraine soil and any undeniable attack on Russian soil directly brings the war to their home turf.

 

[Sister Miriam Godwinson]

Honestly I'm still surprised that they don't see this train wreck a mile away. Russia has zero incentive to abide by a "peace plan" much less one this lopsided. In three months they will expect Russia to abide by it, and in six months they will be "applying pressure", and in nine months they will be panicking because it's a US election year. I don't see how they can escalate, as Russia can bomb any troops or weapons the moment they hit Ukraine soil and any undeniable attack on Russian soil directly brings the war to their home turf.

This war is a shitshow because everybody failed and does not know how to off-ramp anymore.

Putin failed to decapitate Ukraine with a swift strike at the capital in the first days, a tactic that worked in Georgia. He did not expect Ukraine to actually play for keeps, perhaps because he did not expect them to suicide themselves at the behest of their handlers.

The West failed to strangle Russia with "sanctions from Hell" because they genuinely expected that the plebs would riot without McDonalds and Coca-Cola and the oligarchs would riot without their impounded billions and villas abroad, that was supposed to bring Russia to its knees combined with a hit to the GDP. Also blowing up the Nord Stream pipe because har har, gas station country, can't pump gas = no country, mission accomplished. That didn't work because they STILL do not understand Russians and the actual Russia is very different from the Russia in their heads thanks to the efforts of the self-proclaimed experts on all things Russian like Masha Gessen and the retards at the Atlantic Council. Who have no idea what they are talking about much like the fine people with Russia Derangement Syndrome on this very forum.

So here we are with no way to deescalate and the only way for both sides is to push forward, may God have mercy on us sinners.

 

[Betonhaus]

how many defense lines does Russia have now? I think Russia has a clear picture that this war will go on for quite a long time and has adapted Russia to the long haul. Are there any immediate concerns that would prevent Russia from holding it's territory indefinitely?

If the US and NATO decide to escalate the war, what would it look like? Do they have any military weapons in reserve that will make quick work of Russia's defenses, or can they go around the defenses by involving another country? I recall claims that Ukraine has succeeded in drone bombings of civilian targets deep in Russian territory, could that escalate? How would Russia respond if it did?

It does look like the eventuality is that Russia will win, with a small chance of everyone loses if the US brings out the nukes.

 

[Doctor Love]

Honestly I'm still surprised that they don't see this train wreck a mile away.

Depends on who you mean by, "they"

I would like to clarify some of my earlier statements - I had some brain problems which made language a bit more difficult than it usually is.

I don't think the United States can see it, but I do think that the European countries do see it. Except for Poland.

Hence, they are telegraphing rather openly that they are willing to negotiate directly with Russia, outside of NATO, should the need arise. They have been dramatically dragging their feet, sluggishness and a broadly "half-arsed" approach to a war which is in Europe.

I think this conflict may end similarly to Afghanistan, where America suffers the most catastrophic foreign policy defeat in its history.



Also, there is a massive risk of chemical weapons. Back during the early stages of the invasion, several anti-war negotiators were allegedly poisoned with nerve agents. This is similar in its "situation" to the Assad one - the Russians had no motive to lightly dust the Ukrainian side of the peace talk with a nerve agent.

I have since learned that most people have no idea what those sensations actually feel like, and I was actually rather unwell.

There is no chance, at all, that anybody - even someone who is familiar with what chemical weapons do - would describe those sensations "by chance" so it's incredibly unlikely that it's a fake event. If it was, they wouldn't go about describing things like that. I can expand on that if anyone would like that.

Make of it what you will - my opinion is that the Ukrainians have a stockpile of organophosphate chemical weapons which they will use at some stage. It is very unlikely that they will use it in the next few months - not because of a lack of motivation, but because the ambient air temperature will be too low for them to be effective until spring.

 

[Betonhaus]

Also, there is a massive risk of chemical weapons. Back during the early stages of the invasion, several anti-war negotiators were allegedly poisoned with nerve agents. This is similar in its "situation" to the Assad one - the Russians had no motive to lightly dust the Ukrainian side of the peace talk with a nerve agent.

I have since learned that most people have no idea what those sensations actually feel like, and I was actually rather unwell.

There is no chance, at all, that anybody - even someone who is familiar with what chemical weapons do - would describe those sensations "by chance" so it's incredibly unlikely that it's a fake event. If it was, they wouldn't go about describing things like that. I can expand on that if anyone would like that.

Make of it what you will - my opinion is that the Ukrainians have a stockpile of organophosphate chemical weapons which they will use at some stage. It is very unlikely that they will use it in the next few months - not because of a lack of motivation, but because the ambient air temperature will be too low for them to be effective until spring.

Well that's terrifying. I'm sure Ukraine can convince themselves that nerve gas is justified. Is there a way to detect the nerve gas and to have advanced warning? Does Russia keep antidote and masks on hand, and would the be effective?

 

[01169]

Anybody with half a brain i.e. most people who aren't journalists and "foreign policy experts" have already suspected that the attack was signed off by the Poles (wanted to fuck over Germany, don't want lose gas transit shekels), the Danes (wanted to fuck over Germany, wanted to prevent Germany from being a energy resource hub) and the Swedes (they're just fucking gay).

You forgot Germany itself. No way they don't know who's behind it. But our government is fighting its war against the populace.

 

[Doctor Love]

Well that's terrifying. I'm sure Ukraine can convince themselves that nerve gas is justified. Is there a way to detect the nerve gas and to have advanced warning? Does Russia keep antidote and masks on hand, and would the be effective?

No, no, and no. Chemical weapons are impossible to stop, even now. The best you can really hope for is that the person using them is retarded - and they normally are. Some aspects of MAD apply, and they are rather difficult to actually produce, store and distribute - but there's no immediate "line of defence" against modern chemical weaponry outside of those which can target the distribution - anti-rocket defences, for example.

The masks may be handy, but to my knowledge, nerve gases are a chemical which disrupts nerves themselves. They don't necessarily need to be inhaled, only dissolved into fluids on the surface of the skin. Once it does, it can travel very quickly.

This is why I mentioned the eyes, actually - it's a common misconception that gas masks are for the respiratory factor, but they are just as important in protecting the eyes. When dissolved into the fluids of the eyes, the nerve agent will paralyze the eye muscles, and the muscles surrounding the eyeballs - meaning that although you can still see, you struggle to move your eyes at all in any independent fashion from the rest of your head.



The nightmare scenario, here, is that Ukraine will employ "duster drones" to sweep across Russian positions in a precise, concentrated fashion - citing "legitimate defensive use" and essentially, daring Russia to escalate to a full nuclear assault. All while the West backs it up, saying that WMDs are only illegitimate in a handful of contexts (like tear gas) and that this is a legitimate tactical use.

 

[Rubick]

Lmao, they just copied their work from July.

Not the first time either it seems and not the last.

This peace plan meetings are basically G7 group therapy more than anything else...

 

[ZMOT]

if ukies really put chemical weapons on the table it would be a hard escalation at which point the gloves come off. they can't blame it on evil putler using it on his own troops (most people aren't retarded and would smell the falseflag from a mile away), just like it didn't work with nordstream.
but I doubt russia would use nukes, more likely big Z wakes up one morning with a polonium stomach bug...

besides, how hard shit seems to go off the rails, with an election year coming up there's a good chance the west doesn't even care anymore because there are more serious issues at home to deal with. even the usual twittards have replace the ukie flag with the hamas one.

 

[Napoleon III]

Depends on who you mean by, "they"

I would like to clarify some of my earlier statements - I had some brain problems which made language a bit more difficult than it usually is.

I don't think the United States can see it, but I do think that the European countries do see it. Except for Poland.

Hence, they are telegraphing rather openly that they are willing to negotiate directly with Russia, outside of NATO, should the need arise. They have been dramatically dragging their feet, sluggishness and a broadly "half-arsed" approach to a war which is in Europe.

I think this conflict may end similarly to Afghanistan, where America suffers the most catastrophic foreign policy defeat in its history.



Also, there is a massive risk of chemical weapons. Back during the early stages of the invasion, several anti-war negotiators were allegedly poisoned with nerve agents. This is similar in its "situation" to the Assad one - the Russians had no motive to lightly dust the Ukrainian side of the peace talk with a nerve agent.

I have since learned that most people have no idea what those sensations actually feel like, and I was actually rather unwell.

There is no chance, at all, that anybody - even someone who is familiar with what chemical weapons do - would describe those sensations "by chance" so it's incredibly unlikely that it's a fake event. If it was, they wouldn't go about describing things like that. I can expand on that if anyone would like that.

Make of it what you will - my opinion is that the Ukrainians have a stockpile of organophosphate chemical weapons which they will use at some stage. It is very unlikely that they will use it in the next few months - not because of a lack of motivation, but because the ambient air temperature will be too low for them to be effective until spring.

that is an interesting idea and i'm not going to say you are wrong but I'm going to talk about why nuclear weapons aren't used more often as a similar calculation applies to all the MAD type of weapons. And even if this is not very likely say a 0.1% chance due to the massive possibility for casualties from something like that the risk that is involved in this scenario the mean Russians should prepare for it.

States are not just one guy pulling a button and doing something like this. Especially any of the states that around today. If a leader orders nuclear weapons to be fired everyone basically has to agree that doing that is a good idea. Governments are full of hundreds or thousands of people a leader has to keep happy and keep on board. A lot of Ukrainian "leaders" are going to go to the west and live off of their stolen riches if this goes south. If they order a chemical weapons attack that goes away. If they even participate or are associated with people that do a chemical weapons attack all of that goes away.

Furthermore this is just speaking off of my limited knowledge of chemistry, which is certainly more than the average person, but i'm not an expert. It is my understanding that a lot of the chemical weapons are difficult to make for one reason or another. I believe Sarin is a pain in the ass because you can't use standard equipment. It is very easy for this stuff to kill the people making it too. Sarin wasn't even very effective at killing a lot of people as we can see from the Tokyo Subway attacks. I believe VX requires special reaction vessels and is a real pain in the ass to make. Easy enough that a state can manage it but it requires resources and know-how that make you light up like a beacon to anyone paying a bit of attention. By the way if you are a competent chemist that could make something really dangerous like this why not leave and make a whole bunch of money and live a comfortable life in the west?

 

[blablabla]

im going to laugh my balls out if loyd austin managed to get himself killed in ukraine by a fucking rusian misile lmao

 

[MrJokerRager]

Carry on like this and we're likely to start seeing some serious civil unrest break out.

The French mutinied after three years in World War 1.

The Germans after 4 years had a mutiny in World War 1.

We barely going to reach the 2nd year anniversary so if hohols don't mutiny by February 2025 then it looks like hohols are dumb.

 

[Doctor Love]

I believe Sarin is a pain in the ass because you can't use standard equipment.

This is because of

It is very easy for this stuff to kill the people making it too.

Chemically, it's not actually that hard - it's the same process used to produce a lot of pesticides. They are called organophosphates - they inhibit the nervous system and are, overall, a nasty bunch of chemicals.

For the pesticides - they are considered an immediate danger to life if you are exposed to over 100mg/m^3. That's one single drop for ten tonnes of water to be lethal. It's generally not used as an insecticide, often, anymore.

Sarin wasn't even very effective at killing a lot of people as we can see from the Tokyo Subway attacks.

Sarin wasn't effective because very little gas was actually produced. They used, essentially, water balloons filled with a mixture of liquids, some of which was sarin - pierced them, and ran. The resulting evaporation is what did all that damage.

The chemical itself isn't too hard to actually get. The series was discovered in the 30s - the first, Tabun, is named after the German word for "Taboo" because he nearly killed himself when he made it.

As such, staying alive through the process, making a reliable mechanism which can make sure all of the liquid becomes gaseous within a desired concentration - these are the things that make it a difficult weapon to use.

 

[Napoleon III]

The French mutinied after three years in World War 1.

The Germans after 4 years had a mutiny in World War 1.

We barely going to reach the 2nd year anniversary so if hohols don't mutiny by February 2025 then it looks like hohols are dumb.

That's the question when does Ukraine collapse either in a military sense or a political sense. States can't keep fighting losing wars forever.

I will note the French Mutinies were caused due to French Soldiers not wanting to go on pointless offensives that was going to get them killed but they were willing to stay in the trenches in a defensive manner.
The German mutinies were because they were running out of food and there was no reasonable way to win the war.
If Ukraine can stay on the defensive they minimize the chance of mutinies. However I expect to see more surrenders as well. I think the reason you don't see many surrenders is because officers have to be on board to surrender.

Ukraine may collapse in a political sense if funding from the west completely stops and government workers aren't getting paid. I think Zelensky is ride or die enough though that unless he and his faction can be removed he won't surrender without orders to do so from the west.

The other question is once Ukraine begins to collapse in one way or another, what does Russia do? Do they seize the moment do they even have the capability to do so? The way to be a brigadier general is to always be creating a reserve that you can use if something comes up. Either the enemy attacks or you see a good tactical opportunity or whatever and you use that reserve for that. I hope Russia is doing something similar when the opportunity comes they can and do take it. This war will not be slow forever.

 

[Cuckoman]

I think this conflict may end similarly to Afghanistan, where America suffers the most catastrophic foreign policy defeat in its history.

This is worse than Afghanistan.
Afghanistan was just humiliating and something that gave US enemies something to laugh at and meme about. But no one else suffered any consequences other than humiliation.

This is something that has led to the complete destruction of european/german manufactoring industry.
Energy prices continue to be sky high, factories and companies continue to close or migrate to outside of EU.
This is not humiliation but rather a total destruction of the economic future of europe and will have effects that will last decades.

Once the war is over and calmer heads prevail, maybe it will become time for europeans to ask themselves "was it worth it to destroy our economy and industrial base? and if not, who should we blame?"

 

[Doctor Love]

and if not, who should we blame?

The front page news is, now, talking about how Trump said he wouldn't help Europe if it was invaded.

So much bitching. But he is basically correct - Europe would rather maintain its living by taking a neutral or anti-American approach, than fight on behalf of the USA. The USA should take the same approach rather than try to control Europe through this mafia-style "protection" racket.

The entire "alliance" is fraudulent and there's no actual unity within it. "Russia bad" isn't worth the sacrifice.