Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Sister Miriam Godwinson]

It really isn't though? Ignoring the nature of the Kiev regime, to the population it makes very little difference which city you pay your taxes to. For the common man, the most rational choice is immediate surrender. It spares the people, the infrastructure, and the economy.
Like I'm patriotic and all, but the whole "fight until the last man" thing never made any sense to me. Better to not fight, and still have all the men.

I do not disagree, but the conflict is being framed as the re-enactment of WW2 with Putin being Hitler. and the heroism of our ancestors is pretty much ingrained as a national myth at this point. If you watched the interview you may remember he had told Carlson about an episode where the surrounded Ukrainans shouted "Russians do not surrender" and perished instead of, you know... surrendering to the Russians.

 

[Seedling]

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Excuse my retardation but as i understand it at this point Russia is only concerned with the autonomy of the border regions (which have a massive ethnic Russian majority and where already fighting for their independance with Ukraine) and Ukranian neutrality right?
The US really just wants to keep the old forever war going huh

 

[Sister Miriam Godwinson]

Excuse my retardation but as i understand it at this point Russia is only concerned with the autonomy of the border regions (which have a massive ethnic Russian majority and where already fighting for their independance with Ukraine) and Ukranian neutrality right?

That was true when the war started in 2022 and pretty much sums the terms of the early peace talks in Istanbul that Boris Johnson torpedoed with an unscheduled visit as they were reaching conclusion. After two (and possibly more) years of sunk cost, hundreds of thousands of lives and ruined international reputation it is highly unlikely that Putin will simply walk away with the pre-war status quo.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

Excuse my retardation but as i understand it at this point Russia is only concerned with the autonomy of the border regions (which have a massive ethnic Russian majority and where already fighting for their independance with Ukraine) and Ukranian neutrality right?
The US really just wants to keep the old forever war going huh

If whatever is left of Ukraine is allowed to have any military at all when this is over it's just going to happen again.

 

[Betonhaus]

I don't think it is that soon to be quite honest I think it is at least another three months almost certainly more if it actually does happen. And Ukraine could go through a crisis but manage to survive it. We must remember it is not impossible for them to crawl their way out of it. All a crisis really means is it is reasonably possible for destruction to occur. Not all patients in the crisis center die but all of them can.

The next two weeks are the most critical time. The shock of having a decent leader being replaced with one known to cause senseless deaths will be a heavy blow to the troops and make them lose faith in their orders. Plus the dramatic overhaul of the leadership means there will be interruptions in logistics and neglected gaps in the defenses, ones that will take too much time to resolve as the new leadership gets a clearer picture of what's happening and what works and doesn't work. Right now is the perfect time for Russia to ramp up the pressure, doing massive bombing runs and pushing through poorly defended territory. I would expect 75-90% of Ukrainian defenses, troops, and weaponry to be lost within the next two weeks. That dramatic loss could lead to the people losing faith in the government and beginning a serious insurrection. I'm pretty certain the war will be over in two weeks, though that may not be publicly announced for another week or two while the ramifications of what happened sinks in.

 

[Extremist Frank]

Excuse my retardation but as i understand it at this point Russia is only concerned with the autonomy of the border regions (which have a massive ethnic Russian majority and where already fighting for their independance with Ukraine) and Ukranian neutrality right?
The US really just wants to keep the old forever war going huh

Congress critters have to make sure they have a seat on the board of major defense contractors after their term is up

 

[Seedling]

Congress critters have to make sure they have a seat on the board of major defense contractors after their term is up

Those lockheed martin stocks aren't gonna sell themselves

 

[Rome's rightful successor]

 

[blackjack101]

Heard that there are only a few defensive lines left before it becomes an easy push to the Dnieper River. But with consideration in Shoigus statement the war should be over by 2025 and Putin talking about establishing a 300km demilitarized zone in ukraine where Russian cities wont be struck 2 weeks ago makes it seem that the Russian higher ups have enough confidence controlling the flow of this war if they made those statements.

Everyone is assuming that if Putin takes presidency again in March that a major offensive would be launched like it did before in the start of the war. so I will probably be on the lookout if there is any news about Russian troops getting sent to Belarus to maybe attack Ukraine from the north. If they somehow do manage to get to the Dnieper river I think they will change their minds in supplying the F-16s to Ukraine in Spring by the last minute because of this.

If they somehow get 40% of land coverage during the spring they have Smerch 80km and Tornado MLRS systems which they bragged about working in 3 work shifts to produce which cover 120kms. You basically have more than half of Ukraine become a target zone for artillery and drone strikes leaving not much room to park F-16s in runways if they get targeted more frequently without the options of using air to ground missiles, long range ground to ground missiles or long range Iranian drones. So it makes me wonder if those F-16s would fly to resupply to NATO countries to attack Russians in which I have no idea if that counts as NATO declaring war on Russia.

Wonder also if they will go Israeli style on Kyiv and worry less about civilians if they start getting ready to all pack and move westwards.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

I'm pretty certain the war will be over in two weeks, though that may not be publicly announced for another week or two while the ramifications of what happened sinks in.

Fantastically delusional belief, the war is going to grind on just as it has. Russia isn't even in a position to capitalize on such dysfunction within the Ukrainian chain of command and your belief completely ignores the reality that the stuff on the ground matters far more than promulgation of orders, assaults are just complete shitshows to pull off and are extremely costly in terms of manpower.

 

[Betonhaus]

Fantastically delusional belief, the war is going to grind on just as it has. Russia isn't even in a position to capitalize on such dysfunction within the Ukrainian chain of command and your belief completely ignores the reality that the stuff on the ground matters far more than promulgation of orders, assaults are just complete shitshows to pull off and are extremely costly in terms of manpower.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. There are enough tangential pieces in this house of cards that a strong shock may cause them all to collapse.

I'm not suggesting that Russia puts troops on trains and invades all the European capitals at once, just that something is going to break, like Ukraine entering a civil war or realizing they just don't have enough troops to do anything but surrender.

 

[Strix454]

Excuse my retardation but as i understand it at this point Russia is only concerned with the autonomy of the border regions (which have a massive ethnic Russian majority and where already fighting for their independance with Ukraine) and Ukranian neutrality right?
The US really just wants to keep the old forever war going huh

The Russian terms in 2022 were that Ukraine not join NATO and that Ukraine agrees to Crimea and the seperatist regions being detached from Ukraine. The talks were progressing in the spring of 2022. Boris Johnson traveled to Ukraine on April 9, 2022 and ordered the government of Ukraine to cease negotiations which Ukraine did.
The Russian position since then has generally been the same terms but with the implicit threat that whatever additional territory they gained in the war would not be going back to Ukraine.

The US/Ukraine has its own peace plan. The terms are:

1) Russia must withdraw unconditionally to the 1991 borders.
2) All Ukrainian citizens in Russia must be handed over to Ukrainian custody. Even if they don't want to live in Ukraine or return to Ukraine. This in particular applies to Ukrainian seperatists and Ethnic Russians in Crimea.
3) Russia must agree to submit to a war crimes tribunal and turn over any Russian citizen to its custody.
4) Russia must agree to compensate Ukraine for long-term damage to the Ukrainian environment which cannot be immediately calculated. This includes compensation for animals who have died as a result of the conflict.
5) Russia must agree to international controls over the prices it sells its natural resources at. In particular oil and gas resources. A new international organization would set the prices at which Russia could sell these resources.
6) Russia must agree to reparations for all damage done to Ukraine during the conflict. The reparations would be paid by Russia out of state revenues, natural resource revenues and whatever methods seem appropriate to Ukraine and its international partners.

The terms offered to Russia since April 2022 have always been essentially an unconditional surrender where the leadership of the country would be sentenced as war criminals, all Ukrainian opponents of the Ukrainian government would be handed over to Ukraine for punishment and Russia would be a state kept in perpetual bankruptcy with its economy controlled by others.

The US vision for the post-war future of Russia is its dismemberment into small republics as per the plan of the Free Nations of PostRussia organization. An organization supported by various NATO governments, the US government and even the Japanese government.

They don't just want to keep the war going. They want Russia dead and obliterated.

 

[The Ugly One]

It really isn't though? Ignoring the nature of the Kiev regime, to the population it makes very little difference which city you pay your taxes to. For the common man, the most rational choice is immediate surrender. It spares the people, the infrastructure, and the economy.
Like I'm patriotic and all, but the whole "fight until the last man" thing never made any sense to me. Better to not fight, and still have all the men.

The Prussian royalty noticed the same thing when Napoleon rolled through the first time. The common man didn't give a shit whether the man in the fancy hat they paid taxes to spoke French or German and was in no hurry to enlist. There were major reforms to the government afterward to make people feel like they had a stake, and this is part of why the Franco-Prussian war went so badly for his nephew.

If anything, I would expect Putin of all people to be acutely aware of how the Nazis' vicious treatment of civilians made it extremely easy for Stalin to both recruit a large army and muster partisans, the latter of which cut communication lines and were a key part of defeating the Germans at Minsk, and therefore doing the exact reverse and making a good show out of rebuilding cities after they're taken and well behind the front lines helps erode civilian support for the war.

In seven years of Euromaidan rule, the average Ukrainian's life hasn't gotten much better, and if it looks like people in Russian-occupied Donetsk & Crimea have it pretty good, why risk your own neck for the Euromaidan regime?

5) Russia must agree to international controls over the prices it sells its natural resources at. In particular oil and gas resources. A new international organization would set the prices at which Russia could sell these resources.

Nothing says "free-market capitalism" like an international committee setting price controls.

 

[Cuckoman]

Plus the dramatic overhaul of the leadership means there will be interruptions in logistics and neglected gaps in the defenses, ones that will take too much time to resolve as the new leadership gets a clearer picture of what's happening

There is also the risk that all these newly promoted leaders will
"Finally it is my turn to get to embezzle money and get myself a luxury mansion in the Caribbean or two. This is my chance! Better hurry before it is too late".
We are talking about the most fucking corrupt country in eurasia after all.

In this scenario these new folks won't really put much priority in the war effort at all for uite a while. Or until the swiss bank account is full and the mansions are purchased.

 

[Betonhaus]

1) Russia must withdraw unconditionally to the 1991 borders.
2) All Ukrainian citizens in Russia must be handed over to Ukrainian custody. Even if they don't want to live in Ukraine or return to Ukraine. This in particular applies to Ukrainian seperatists and Ethnic Russians in Crimea.
3) Russia must agree to submit to a war crimes tribunal and turn over any Russian citizen to its custody.
4) Russia must agree to compensate Ukraine for long-term damage to the Ukrainian environment which cannot be immediately calculated. This includes compensation for animals who have died as a result of the conflict.
5) Russia must agree to international controls over the prices it sells its natural resources at. In particular oil and gas resources. A new international organization would set the prices at which Russia could sell these resources.
6) Russia must agree to reparations for all damage done to Ukraine during the conflict. The reparations would be paid by Russia out of state revenues, natural resource revenues and whatever methods seem appropriate to Ukraine and its international partners.

I wonder how they convince themselves that they're being serious about these terms.

 

[White_N]

The US to its citizens and the world: We must support and protect the Ukraine, Russians are violating their human rights!

The Ukraine:
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source

Spoiler: archive of original

View attachment 5709963

Every faggot screeching about Russias "human rights" should have this shoved in their face and told be made to STFU

I thought for a long time what he was doing there and how his relatives allowed an obviously mentally challenged man to go to the front, but then I remembered that for the death of a soldier, the family receives a compensation of 400,000 dollars...
https://life.pravda.com.ua/society/2022/08/3/249854/

There's that word again, "genocidal." I'm surprised they're still running that after that whole mass grave story ended up being a big nothing.
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The former Aidar commander threatened to purge Ukrainian villages and towns for resisting mobilization.

The former commander of the Ukrainian national battalion Aidar, Yevhen Dikiy, has threatened to purge Ukrainian villages and towns for resisting mobilization. This is how he reacted to the incident in the village of Kosmach in the Ivano-Frankivsk region, where the crowd beat a woman, suspecting her to be a recruiter for the Ukrainian military recruitment center.

"If they will chew, excuse me, snot, we will see more and more such cases, and then the civilian authorities will throw up their hands and tell the army to solve the problem. Believe me, the army will solve it. But I would very much not want Kosmach to be cleansed as an enemy territory," Dikiy said on air of the TV channel Kyiv 24.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

I wonder how they convince themselves that they're being serious about these terms.

That list of demands was just a long way of saying "Russians will overthrow Putin so we can install the next President and loot the place."

 

[The Hardest R]

I wonder how they convince themselves that they're being serious about these terms.

It’s basically the same terms and conditions they levy on anyone since the end of the Cold War. America is treating Russia the same way they did Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. Funny thing is America failed in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria but they think it’ll work on a country much larger than those three combined. It’s nothing more than ideological hubris, which is why they tried to cancel Russia Xitter-style and now the future of Pax Americana institutions are now in question, such as NATO and SWIFT.

To answer your question, these days they’re the only ones who take them seriously and everyone else increasingly sees them as paper tigers. Some of this is definitely due to the fact that Pax Americana is a historical aberration that was always going to be temporary but a lot of it is due to the lower quality leadership of the west who thinks the biggest priority at the moment is adding more women, niggers, trannies and faggots in senior leadership positions, and seeing the ramifications of such a retarded policy.

 

[borsabil]

Denys is now openly criticizing Elensky for wasting the army in Bakhmut and likely about to do the same again.

Now it's milquetoast but hearing this coming from his mouth means things are really, really fucking bad.

Fantastically delusional belief, the war is going to grind on just as it has. Russia isn't even in a position to capitalize on such dysfunction within the Ukrainian chain of command and your belief completely ignores the reality that the stuff on the ground matters far more than promulgation of orders, assaults are just complete shitshows to pull off and are extremely costly in terms of manpower.

That's not how attritional wars work. It's a simple equation, x amount of artillery plus y amount of air defense and z amount of troops. You have less of one you need more of the other.

Ukraine has run out of X and Y and the west can't pull 5 million 155mm rounds or 10 Patriot systems out of their arses no matter how many billions in funding is approved. Shell starvation and lack of AD is allowing the Russians to change their tactics and concentrate their forces. When the Ukrainian army breaks it will be sudden. Can the Russians take advantage of a localised collapse in the Ukrainian lines? We'll see but collapse it will.

 

[Strix454]

I wonder how they convince themselves that they're being serious about these terms.

The same way the US convinced Germany to commit economic suicide and then doubled down with the US natural gas export "pause" just to rub it in further.

Its no different than the US struggling with everything at its disposal to save Hamas and its rule in Gaza.
Its no different than Biden's 2021 decision that the houthis in Yemen were good guys and not terrorists.
Its no different than people screaming about genocide and nazis everywhere in the world but looking the other way at the Roman Shukhevych museum in Ukraine.
Its no different than Victoria Nuland implementing the same policy toward Ukraine in the US government as a political appointee regardless of what party controlled the white house. She could go from working in Dick Cheney's office to working in the Obama Administration without anyone even questioning how or why.


They just don't care. Convincing people isn't necessary because under the system people simply do as they are told.