All this talk of trans genocide perhaps necessitates a reminder that in the United States, trans people are actually
substantially less likely to be victims of murder than the average person. I ran the numbers, and the results may shock you (no they won't):
This
2022 study cited by Reuters (
link) places the number of trans-identified people in the US at an estimated
1.6 million (a little less than 0.5% of the population):
The homicide rate in the US was reported by the United Nations as
6.38 per 100,000 individuals in the same year (
link):
The Trans Murder Monitoring research project (
link), conducted by Transgender EU, tracks worldwide trans homicide incidents in the form of an annual report. Released in 2023, the latest of these reports provides a figure of
31 such occurrences in the US (of 320 globally) between October 2022 and September 2023:
31 homicides in a population of 1.6 million gives us a US trans homicide rate of
31 / (1,600,000 / 100,000) = 1.94 per 100,000 individuals. Essentially, you are over
three times less likely to be murdered if you identify as transgender compared to the typical American citizen. This is hardly surprising, since trans people are overwhelmingly white and upper-middle class, but it's nice to have some concrete figures. The rate isn't rising, either -- in the States, it's actually
decreased by nearly half since 2021.
Tony and his TRA buddies can keep grasping at isolated incidents to spin into some global conspiracy all they like. The figures don't lie. Even when I use data from exclusively pro-trans sources to give them the benefit of the doubt, nothing suggests that trans people are at an increased risk of murder, or that the recent rise in Gender Critical beliefs is leading to more murders. What it does suggest is that Tony is willing to use the death of a young girl to fabricate a narrative of oppression and redirect public sympathy towards himself and his ilk. But we knew that already.
