Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

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I am pissed off I can't find the thread from russia defense net to share here (no idea if that information got shared here before anyways) but some user made an argument about how strongly re-enforced commie blocks were made by the Soviets in Ukraine to withstand a distant nuclear blast showing the layouts on how the buildings were built. The FABs being reintroduced and now a 3000 version has shown significant progress being made through the urban regions that it pissed off the Ukrainians enough to move 2 Patriot launchers closer to the battlefield to get destroyed later.
 
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I think this is just posturing on Macron's part. Those aren't enough men to make a difference in a war this size, and it's also not enough that they can effectively blackmail Europe into saving them by holding a gun to their own head. Besides, France didn't do shit when Wagner chased them out of a big part of Africa last year, a much more consequential defeat than Ukraine or Ukrayne or Yukrayyne or however the fuck we're spelling it now.
 
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Strix454 said:
Totally delusional. They would struggle to keep 25,000 or 30,000 in the field. Deploying 60,000 would require stripping the French army bare outside of Ukraine and having no system for combat replacements.
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I recall that they said that the 60,000 would also include soldiers from other NATO countries.

This number wouldn't turn the tide though. The Ukrainians themselves said that they needed 20,000-30,000 replacements in manpower per month since their casualties are just that heavy.
 
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I'm going to agree with Legato. Deploying French troops and integrating them into Ukrainian forces or areas is going to be a cluster fuck of epic proportions just as Russia gears up for an offensive.

1. The French arrive to find all the "fortifications" are just crudely dug ditches because Ukrainians ran off with the money.
2. French soldiers get press ganged from being truck drivers into going to the front.
3. Ukraine becomes resentful of the French and force them to shoulder the weight of the war.

The calculus doesn't work out since the French will end up fighting a war on Ukrainian soil for a war that the US decided to start. It will become a quagmire that won't make sense to anyone.

Except Macron. He seems to be angling for the "Savior of Western Democracy" title that Biden and Zelensky have.
 
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Saleh said:
I recall that they said that the 60,000 would also include soldiers from other NATO countries.

This number wouldn't turn the tide though. The Ukrainians themselves said that they needed 20,000-30,000 replacements in manpower per month since their casualties are just that heavy.
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I checked the article and it does indeed say that France could deploy (a possible number of) 20,000 and that French officers could apparently command 40,000 other Europeans.

So if France's "friends" were to contribute similar portions of their armies:

- Czech Republic 2600
- Estonia 800
- Latvia 1340
- Lithuania 1730
- Poland 20,000
- Romania 7,000
- Netherlands 3,211
- Denmark 5,000
- Norway 745

You get in the range of 40,000.

The premise seems to be that by taking up the positions of many Ukrainian units west of the Dnipro, they will free up an equal number of Ukrainian garrison units to go the front lines. The other premise I guess is that the Russians would never dare fire at foreign troops.

Or else they are preparing to guard the borders of "little Ukraine" after the country collapses.

Before doing the math, I thought this was all rather unlikely. Now after looking at it, this seems like such a stupid idea that it seems almost certain to happen. Its actually no more implausible than the entire German political/economic elite making a decision to economically ruin the country.

Better yet, Macron not being able to run again in France gives him nothing to lose in all this no matter what happens and the perfect leader for this insane project.
 
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Strix454 said:
So if France's "friends" were to contribute similar portions of their armies:

- Czech Republic 2600
- Estonia 800
- Latvia 1340
- Lithuania 1730
- Poland 20,000
- Romania 7,000
- Netherlands 3,211
- Denmark 5,000
- Norway 745

You get in the range of 40,000.
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That would be such a clusterfuck of an army to command with so many languages, protocols, and equipment differences. A force of that style would be effectively worthless as a military asset and an utter drain of resources.

I do believe it was the last great Frenchman who said, "Give me allies to fight against." (Un)fortunately, his descendants are more into "Diversity is our strength" with predictable consequences.
 
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Betonhaus said:
...I don't understand. They are clearly sending those men to their deaths. How can there be this much evil in the world?
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My guy, the entire political paradigm of the western world is built on the idea it's a moral imperative to run Midwestern farm boys straight into machine-gun fire to prevent the hideous fate of some nasal German taking a county back from Poland. That much evil doesn't just exist, it's baked in.
 
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Betonhaus said:
...I don't understand. They are clearly sending those men to their deaths. How can there be this much evil in the world?
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It's worse then that. If that happens. This would be de-facto declaration of war. It pretty much unties Russia's hands. To target NATO assets. And this will lead to tactical nukes also.


Now granted Putin has let the west escalate without consequences. And they might believe they'll get away with this also.


This is a insane non the less.
 
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Strix454 said:
The premise seems to be that by taking up the positions of many Ukrainian units west of the Dnipro, they will free up an equal number of Ukrainian garrison units to go the front lines. The other premise I guess is that the Russians would never dare fire at foreign troops.
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This seems like a dumb premise.

If they're freeing up UAF troops, they're part of the Ukrainian war effort. This should lead to Kinzhal strikes on NATO troop concentrations.

Macron is wrong, there is no "strategic dilemma" for Russia from France or any other NATO country sending a tripwire force to Ukraine. Russia knows NATO isn't going to directly fight a war over Ukraine. No nukes will fly, and no conventional war would be successful for NATO. That means Russia can, and must, make an example of any NATO country foolish enough to enter the chat.
 
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Rubick said:
Now granted Putin has let the west escalate without consequences. And they might believe they'll get away with this also
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That's largely because every action the west does harms themselves more then it harms Russia, it is far more efficient for Russia to smack down paltry attacks one after another - instead of trigger a massive response.
Russia's stance is perfectly logical. Not our leader's actions they are completely irrational. It really makes me sick
 
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No idea how brainwashed Europe's population is, as in Ukraine has such a low casualty and death rate that the far superior western European army will do way better until shells, drones and rockets start pouring above their heads for them to understand the reality they are actually in and decide from there if they want to continue being heroes to a war they knowingly won't win.

Sending 1000s of body bags back to Europe will humiliate, "the might of the NATO force" that to save their dignity from the humiliation will be to escalate the war further and they can argue among themselves who is going to get recruited more from their countries which by than there will be massive protests. I don't think armies from the EU are brainwashed enough like Azov to start firing at their own civilians to become cannon fodder for the frontlines for a country unrelated to them.
 
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