Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

It took me a minute to figure out what might be happening here. I still can't really tell. At first I thought he somehow knocked a drone out of the air with his rifle, and threw something at it which triggered its payload.

He stumbles backwards, almost trips on a branch, and then moves forward and throws something onto the ground - it looks like it might be his rifle. Then he picks up what is most likely an RPG launcher, based on the sling and the breech. I thought it was unloaded, but it might be using a frag warhead, which is slimmer and flat?

Considering the way he throws consistently towards one spot on the ground, could he be trying to throw something heavy on something frightening like a snake, without considering the effects of that action?
 
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It took me a minute to figure out what might be happening here. I still can't really tell.

Yesterday, you may have seen the moment of the mysterious self-destruction of a Russian man on social media in poor quality.

To stop the endless stream of ridiculous versions of this event, we show you how it really happened....

Our kamikaze drone was hunting for an orc and lost control a moment before it was hit, which is why it landed very carefully on the ground.

The occupier decided to win the Darwin Award, so he bravely and courageously started fighting our drone with an assault rifle and an RPG.

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The tl;dw is that he threw his rifle at it barrel first, like a spear, but missed. Then he picked up an RPG tube and threw that. He hit, which caused the drone's payload to explode. He did these things while standing maybe two yards from the drone.


Here's a video of two Russian soldiers trying to fend off a drone with sticks.
Notably it explodes in what appears to be a remote controlled air burst.

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China recognized the problem with their generation of "little princes" in some of their slap fights with Inida and rolled back One-Child in the 2010's. Those children will be turning 18 in the 2030s, and things are likely to start getting spicy.
It didn't work, the damage is already done and China's birthrates continue to deteriorate even with the policy lifted. The One-Child Policy basically reduced the birthrate to that of a highly-developed country but without the economic development.

So now they're getting hit with the drop in birthrates that corresponds to their increasing incomes, too, without the benefits of a population bulge like with a developing economy. Mao killing 60-70 million people during the GLF and Cultural Revolution doesn't help either.

The other huge problem with the One-Child Policy was the sex-selective abortions for girls. This was already an issue in China before the policy but that made it way more severe so there is a surplus of tens of millions of men relative to women that the previous generations still rely upon to support them.
 
Here's a video of two Russian soldiers trying to fend off a drone with sticks.
Notably it explodes in what appears to be a remote controlled air burst.
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Fuck, you can even see when the shrapnel tear through these guys.

But thats what you get for fighting an exploding drone with sticks I guess.
 
It didn't work, the damage is already done and China's birthrates continue to deteriorate even with the policy lifted. The One-Child Policy basically reduced the birthrate to that of a highly-developed country but without the economic development.

So now they're getting hit with the drop in birthrates that corresponds to their increasing incomes, too, without the benefits of a population bulge like with a developing economy. Mao killing 60-70 million people during the GLF and Cultural Revolution doesn't help either.

The other huge problem with the One-Child Policy was the sex-selective abortions for girls. This was already an issue in China before the policy but that made it way more severe so there is a surplus of tens of millions of men relative to women that the previous generations still rely upon to support them.
Large numbers of young men with nothing much to do or lose is not a formula for social stability. It has had lethal consequences for authoritarian and politically and economically underdeveloped societies whether Africa where it's mixed with Islamism and similarly in the Middle East and north Africa.

Ever since Stalin and NKVD head Lazar Kaganovich re-activated the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate, in 1943 it has been a nasty and sordid tool of the state. The invasion of Ukraine resulted in the loss of most of its active parishes. Maybe 7% of Russians are in any way actively Russian Orthodox. Only the ill willed, uninformed and the stupid could give it any spiritual credence. Its affiliated churches overseas, like in Russia, help maintain social control of a portion of Russians and propagandise for Putin. It should be mentioned by contrast the Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia works to help Ukrainian refugees and undo some of the the damage done by the bald manlet Putin and priest Gundyaev/Kirill.

The Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) has combined several Kremlin ideological narratives in an attempt to form a broader nationalist ideology around the war against Ukraine and Russia's expansionist future.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The ROC MP has amplified the Kremlin's rhetoric on Russia's war against Ukraine and called it an existential and civilisational "holy war", which appears to be a significant deviation for Russian authorities, who have so far carefully avoided officially framing Russia's invasion of Ukraine as any kind of "war".

The ROC MP appears to be bringing together previous parallel Kremlin narrative efforts into a relatively coherent ideology centred on national identity and demographic revival, which promises Russians a period of national renaissance in exchange for social and civic responsibilities.

The ROC MP has emphasised that "restoring the unity of the Russian people" through the war in Ukraine is a key condition for Russia's survival and successful development during the 21st century.

ISW analysts believe that this call for restoration means a full-scale destruction of the Ukrainian nation and its absorption into Russia.

The ROC MP also aims to convert ethnic Belarusians into the Russian nation through its concept of the "trinity doctrine", as well as to repatriate other "compatriots" abroad en masse.

The Kremlin may choose not to fully embrace the ultranationalist ideology that the ROC MP has proposed, but it will likely borrow and use it to support the war against Ukraine and any future acts of aggression against Russia's neighbours and the West.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 29 March:

  • The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), a Kremlin-controlled organisation and a known tool within the Russian hybrid warfare toolkit, held the World Russian People’s Council in Moscow on 27 and 28 March and approved an ideological and policy document tying several Kremlin ideological narratives together in an apparent effort to form a wider nationalist ideology around the war in Ukraine and Russia’s expansionist future.
  • The ROC MP intensified Kremlin rhetoric about Russia’s war in Ukraine and cast it as an existential and civilisational "holy war," a significant inflection for Russian authorities who have so far carefully avoided officially framing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as any kind of "war."
  • The ROC MP called for the codification of elements of the Russkiy Mir and may be gauging public support for the formal inclusion of ethnic Ukrainians and Belarusians in the Kremlin’s concept of the Russian nation.
  • The ROC MP heavily emphasised Russia’s need for traditional family values and an updated migration policy to counter Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis.
  • The ROC MP appears to be combining previously parallel Kremlin narrative efforts into a relatively cohesive ideology focusing on national identity and demographic resurgence that promises Russians a period of national rejuvenation in exchange for social and civic duties.
  • Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stressed that materiel shortages from delays in Western security assistance are constraining Ukrainian forces and forcing Ukraine to conduct a strategic defence.
  • The Russian military likely expanded the target set for Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure to include hydroelectric power plants.
  • Russia vetoed an annual United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution extending a monitoring panel tracking adherence to UN sanctions against North Korea on 28 March.
  • The Kremlin appears to have succeeded in pressuring Telegram to further censor extremist content following the 22 March Crocus City Hall attack, highlighting the Kremlin’s ability to pressure significant actors within the Russian information space to act in its interests.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on 29 March.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is preparing for Russia’s semi-annual spring conscription cycle, which will begin on 1 April.
  • Russian occupation authorities continue law enforcement crackdowns, including against the Crimean Tatar ethnic minority, to consolidate control over occupied Ukraine.
Ukrainska Pravda/archive

Pro-Kremlin website spread propaganda and “paid” European politicians, top European officials said.



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EU Commission opens non-compliance investigations against Alphabet, Apple and Meta
The new Russian influence campaign comes with less than three months to go before the European Parliament election. | Olivier Hoslet/EFE via EPA
MARCH 29, 2024 11:14 AM CET
BY NICHOLAS VINOCUR, PIETER HAECK AND EDDY WAX
A Russian political influence campaign is shaking up Europe, as top officials warned Moscow paid European Parliament members to interfere in the upcoming EU election.

"This confirms what we have suspected: the Kremlin is using dodgy outlets pretending to be media [and] using money to buy covert influence,” European Commission Vice President Věra Jourová told Brussels Playbook, calling the revelations “very troubling.”

The scandal broke when the Czech government on Wednesday sanctioned a news site called Voice of Europe, which Prague said was part of a pro-Russian influence operation. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said Thursday that Russia had approached EU parliament members (MEPs) and "paid [them], to promote Russian propaganda.”

The new Russian influence campaign comes with less than three months to go before the European Parliament election on June 6-9. It echoes concerns of corruption and foreign meddling brought to the fore by the Qatargate corruption scandal that rocked the European Parliament less than two years ago.

"We can't afford to be one step behind Putin and his propaganda army on a chess board ... We have to constantly bear in mind he will use the disinformation and foreign interference as a weapon to divide Europe," Jourová said.

The influence scandal revolved around the website Voice of Europe. The Czech foreign ministry sanctioned Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as Voice of Europe itself and a person called Artem Pavlovich Marchevskyi presumed to be involved in the operation.


"The Kremlin is using dodgy outlets pretending to be media [and] using money to buy covert influence,” said European Commission Vice President Věra Jourová. | Ronald Wittek/EFE via EPA
Medvedchuk was running a “Russian influence operation” from Russia on Czech territory using Voice of Europe, authorities said in a statement.

“This decision is in the security interest of the Czech Republic, as well as contributing to the protection of the democratic nature of the forthcoming elections to the European Parliament,” the Czech foreign ministry said.

Polish security services said Thursday they had carried out searches as part of the cross-border investigation in Warsaw and Tychy in western Poland, Reuters reported. Local media cited the security services' statement saying authorities had seized €48,500 and $36,000. Poland's Internal Security Agency's website has been down since Thursday evening.

Voice of Europe’s YouTube page throws up a parade of EU lawmakers, many of them belonging to far-right, Euroskeptic parties, who line up to bash the Green Deal, predict the Union’s imminent collapse, or attack Ukraine. There is no suggestion that those appearing on the network accepted cash.

The website has its roots in the Netherlands, Dutch daily NRC reported. An entrepreneur linked to the site at the time “worked with” far-right leader Thierry Baudet in 2016 “to bring about the Ukraine referendum,” the paper wrote,
Politico EU/archive

Fuck, you can even see when the shrapnel tear through these guys.

But thats what you get for fighting an exploding drone with sticks I guess.

They made their choice to go to Ukraine for what they hoped was easy money. When there they could have deserted or surrendered to Ukrainian authorities who provided a mechanism for contractors to surrender and unlike Russia don't torture and murder some prisoners while starving the rest.
 
It didn't work, the damage is already done and China's birthrates continue to deteriorate even with the policy lifted. The One-Child Policy basically reduced the birthrate to that of a highly-developed country but without the economic development.

So now they're getting hit with the drop in birthrates that corresponds to their increasing incomes, too, without the benefits of a population bulge like with a developing economy. Mao killing 60-70 million people during the GLF and Cultural Revolution doesn't help either.

The other huge problem with the One-Child Policy was the sex-selective abortions for girls. This was already an issue in China before the policy but that made it way more severe so there is a surplus of tens of millions of men relative to women that the previous generations still rely upon to support them.
The problem for the ccp is that they have now created a system of incentives to keep having a single kid.
Your retirement basket is your kid so they have to do better than you or poverty it is.
So your kid has to get more education than you. All higher education depends on how good you do on one exam (or if you can afford to send them abroad on your own). So now you kid has to be at the very tip top or no higher education and the only way you can stand a chance it to go ball to the walls full out on over working your chinklet, no cost spared.
So now you have an education industry to prep the little princes and princesses for the exam from the moment they can crawl. If they don't subject their kids to this they aren't going to make it so even if you can now have two kids you can't afford to send both kids to all the extra lessons and if you don't they would get a decent education or job.
So now the ccp has to dismantle an entire industry that has had decades to entrench it's self into the culture. Just to get the price of raising a child down enough that people might consider having a second child.
In the west if you want one of your kids to become a doctor you are better having a few kids and then investing a bit more in the smartest one of them. So there never was the incentive death spiral to just investing in one child.

Honestly speaking to mainlander kids is pretty depressing when you get to talking about their childhood, or lack there off
 
Large numbers of young men with nothing much to do or lose is not a formula for social stability. It has had lethal consequences for authoritarian and politically and economically underdeveloped societies whether Africa where it's mixed with Islamism and similarly in the Middle East and north Africa.
The catch with China is the families of those young men still depend heavily on them to support the family in old age and there aren't really any other options. There's a surplus of men overall but not a surplus of men per family like is the case in Africa or the MENA.
 
More drone v. drone action:

This is a new one. I haven't seen any other videos of multiple MG-armed 'bots in action, on either side.

Definitely haven't seen anything like that before, either. Yikes.
 
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Will France Really Be Giving All Decommissioned Weaponry to Ukraine, Including VAB APCs, Leclerc Tanks, Mirage Fighters?
  • The approximate number of these [VAB] armored vehicles is around 1800 units
  • hundred Leclerc tanks
  • 27 single-seat Mirage 2000-5 and 7 two-seat Mirage 2000B aircraft.
The power of the AASM Hammer:
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The tl;dw is that he threw his rifle at it barrel first, like a spear, but missed. Then he picked up an RPG tube and threw that. He hit, which caused the drone's payload to explode. He did these things while standing maybe two yards from the drone.
Oh shit so my first guess was closer to the truth. That explains a lot, and it's a pretty fucking wild way to die.
 
The tl;dw is that he threw his rifle at it barrel first, like a spear, but missed. Then he picked up an RPG tube and threw that. He hit, which caused the drone's payload to explode. He did these things while standing maybe two yards from the drone.
That has to be the dumbest most bizarre death/act ive seen out of this so far. The guy had to have either been under the effects of some substance or his brain fried from combat/ptsd.
 
Ukrainian POW sentenced to life for defending Mariupol after appealing his 22 year sentence:
Russian court of appeal has changed to life imprisonment the 22-year sentence passed by an unrecognized occupation ‘court’ against Ukrainian prisoner of war Denys Rashplia. The sentences were clearly based on ‘confessions’ tortured out of the Ukrainian POW, with the ‘prosecution appeal’ and massively increased sentence an additional cruel form of torture.

Russia began mass ‘trials’ of Ukrainian prisoners of war in 2023, with Denys Rashplia one of the first victims. The vast majority of such ‘trials’ are held in the Russian proxy ‘Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics’ [‘DPR’/’LPR’], with massive sentences passed by kangaroo occupation ‘courts’ effectively in secret, and then reported by Russia’s prosecutor general or Investigative Committee. The prisoners of war [POW] are deprived of any access to independent lawyers, their families or international observers, and the only ‘evidence’ to back the charges is typically in the form of videoed ‘confessions’ which the POWs appear to be reading off by heart. The charges are almost always the same, with Ukrainians defending their own country against the Russian invading army accused of the latter’s war crimes, specifically its killing and ill-treatment of civilians.

On 23 June 2023, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that Rashplia was to be ‘tried’ for supposed mass killing of civilians in Mariupol. It was clear from this first account that the Ukrainian POW, who is a driver from the 36th Maritime Brigade, was to be ‘tried’ by the so-called ‘DPR high court’, and that the ‘prosecutor’ mentioned was, in fact, a ‘prosecutor’ from this illegal formation. Both this ‘prosecutor’ and Russia’s Investigative Committee were claiming that, from 9 March to 9 April 2022, Rashplia had been deployed on three checkpoints and had killed 16 people and at least wounded nine others. It seems clear that this was based on Rashplia’s ‘confession’, with the Ukrainian having, allegedly, added (in the course of this ‘testimony’) that there could have been more victims, but that those wounded “had crawled into the bushes away from his fire”.

From almost immediately after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine until mid-May 2022, Russia subjected Mariupol to mass bombing and shelling, hitting apartment blocks, hospitals, schools and other civilian targets. The invaders also prevented civilians from fleeing to Ukrainian-controlled territory, with those who risked the journey in private vehicles likely to be shot at and killed. Russia’s attacks on civilian targets have been fully documented, and there is a huge weight of video and photographic footage and witness testimony. All of this has led to damning reports on Russia’s indiscriminate bombing of civilians by, among others, the UN’s Independent Investigative Committee on Ukraine and the UN’s Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights. Both bodies have also condemned Russia’s widespread and systematic use of torture, including against Ukrainian POWs.

Russia’s fake ‘trials’ of Ukrainian defenders on charges pertaining to the killing, wounding and ill-treatment of Ukrainian civilians are of particular cynicism. The aggressor state’s use of horrific forms of torture (in particular, electric shocks) is a further war crime against members of a group who have protected status under international law.

If Russia genuinely had proof of any of the alleged killings of civilians in this case, they would not have hidden Rashplia and his ‘trial’ in occupied Donetsk oblast where he had no access to independent lawyers nor to observers from the UN or International Committee of the Red Cross. There are no grounds for believing that his ‘trial’, reported by Russia’s Investigative Committee after sentence had been passed, had anything in common with rule of law. By 21 December, when Rashplia’s sentence was announced, Russia’s ‘trials’ had taken on a conveyor belt quality. The POWs are virtually always accused of the same charges under Russian legislation, and Rashplia’s case was no exception. He was accused of the murder and attempted murder of two or more people carried out by an organized group in a manner dangerous to the public and motivated by enmity and hostility towards a social group’ (various parts of Articles 105 and 30 of Russia’s criminal code); and of ‘‘using prohibited means and methods in an armed conflict’ (Article 356 § 1).

He was found ‘guilty’ by the so-called ‘DPR high court’ (presiding ‘judge’ German Ivanovich Aleksandrov) on 21 December 2023, with a sentence in total of 22 years in a maximum security prison colony.

The next that was heard was a press release on 21 March 2024 from Russia’s first court of appeal in general jurisdiction cases. This announced ‘examination’ of an appeal against the ‘DPR’ sentence lodged by Russia’s public prosecutor. While the press release mentioned Rashplia, the information about the course of the ‘trials’ on the website is ‘secret’, with it known only that the presiding ‘judge’ was Tatyana Nikolayevna Ulyanova. This blitzkrieg ‘appeal’ resulted in the claim that the original court had wrongly applied criminal legislation, and in a new, life sentence, with this to be in a special (especially harsh) regime prison colony. This new sentence is now, it seems, only subject to appeal through a cassation court.

but can they beat Blendo?
Nothing can beat Blendo.
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Zmiivska Thermal Power Plant in Kharkiv region was completely destroyed as a result of a Russian missile strike on March 22, — Centerenergo
"All units were destroyed, auxiliary equipment was damaged. The degree of destruction is different, from complete to significant. Now the enterprise is in the process of disassembling the rubble and there is no access to most of the equipment. Therefore, it is possible to more accurately assess the extent of damage, exact figures regarding the amount required for restoration, as well as any forecasts regarding the time of repairs - there are none" — the statement of Centerenergo.
https://x.com/UkrReview/status/1773972902024491038?s=20
 
There's still no news about the Il-76 that crashed in Belgorod months ago. The Russians claimed it was loaded with Ukrainian POWs, then refused to allow UN people investigate, claimed the to have identified the remains, and then refused to return them to Ukraine. Nobody has seen a Ukrainian corpse yet.


Russians doing reconnaissance by buying satellite images from Western companies.
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Russian network that 'paid European politicians' busted, authorities claim
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80% of DTEK's [Ukraine's largest private energy company] energy capacity damaged, destroyed after Russian March attacks
[...]
Over the past month, DTEK's facilities have been reportedly targeted at least ten times. Five of the company's six thermal power plants have been "severely damaged," with some units almost completely destroyed and some partially destroyed, according to Sakharuk.

"(A March 29 attack) was the second biggest attack in March. The previous one was a week ago. The consequences of these two attacks, which were very 'effective,' are the damage to much electricity generation and distribution facilities," Sakharuk said on national television.
[...]
Among Moscow's other targets in March were Kaniv Hydroelectric Power Plant in Cherkasy Oblast, Dnister Hydroelectric Power Plant in Chernivtsi Oblast and Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant.

The Hydroelectric Power Station-2 (HPS-2), one of the two stations of the latter, is in critical condition following the attack. The dam itself suffered damage as well, but officials said that there was no risk of a breach.
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The WaPo posted a good interview with Zelenskyy. In it he confirms that US officials asked Ukraine to stop the attacks against refineries.
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Russia Doubled Imports of an Explosives Ingredient—With Western Help
U.S., German and Taiwanese firms made nitrocellulose that was shipped to Russia, much of it through one Turkish company, despite sanctions
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Taiwan’s Top Diplomat Says U.S. Aid to Ukraine Is Critical for Deterring China
Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said in an interview that a Russian victory could embolden China to move against Taiwan and would fuel anti-American propaganda.
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While the Russians conduct these terror attacks without military significance, their assaults keep suffering.
Since Russians do not care whatsoever about their soldiers' lives being thrown away, they can replace the losses and slowly gain ground.

Dozens of armed vehicles destroyed in attacks around Avdiivka:
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and north of Novoprokopivka (Zaporizhzhia):

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The work of the 170th separate logistics battalion of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Pictured here are MAN HX81 8×8, MAN HX77 8×8 with Wechselladesystem loading system, and Scania R500 trucks provided by Germany.
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An X-101 cruise missile with a dual warhead was shot down by the Ukrainian Defence Forces during a night-time missile strike

The modified version received an additional warhead module (2) and the total equivalent increased from 450 kg to approximately 800 kg

The second warhead (2) has prepared warhead elements in the form of cubic steel fragments to increase combat effectiveness

Probably, the space for the additional warhead was found by reducing the fuel tank, which will probably affect the range of the X-101, but even a reduced range may be sufficient for the territory of Ukraine.

So in this video (https://t.me/war_home/516) at the Raduga plant, the employee was not mistaken about 800 kg, he simply confused the X-59 with the X-101
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Anti-aircraft deployment: the army creates mobile teams to combat UAVs
The Russians are now planning to copy Ukrainian efforts.
Russian troops and facilities will be covered from drones with the help of special mobile anti-aircraft gun groups. They are currently being formed as part of several Russian general armoured armies, as well as air force and air defence armies, Izvestiya sources in the Russian Defence Ministry said. They will be armed with ZU-23-2 automatic cannons mounted on truck chassis, as well as pickup trucks equipped with large-calibre machine guns. The use of such mobile firepower is a cheap and effective way to defend against drones, experts believe.
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New Perun: Global Arms Exports - Winners, losers & trends in the race to rearm
There's no way the goal if slightly obfuscating analytics nobody cares about is worth losing the ability to embed youtube videos.
 
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