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US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians
- Thread starter SeniorFuckFace
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Individualism Incarnate
kiwifarms.net
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- Sep 23, 2019
Its not as if people have spent the past 30+ years relying on an easily recorded and trackable system for buying goods.
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- Dec 23, 2022
Wow these "conservatives" are dumber than I fucking thought.
If there's no immunity while in office, then the president no longer rules the executive, the permanent DOJ bureaucracy does, via threats behind closed doors.
The standard that should be discussed is:
Did the senate CONVICT in an impeachment?
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- Aug 22, 2020
That's been the case even with checks ever since banks went to computerized records. And they switched to needing to write a check to CASH to withdraw from the human being teller at most banks
- Joined
- Oct 20, 2019
I know you're not supposed to post just to say something anybody could say but... These people are idiots.
I think you're right with two caveats. Firstly, don't neglect political prosecutions and hounding. Speak up? This provides a tonne of ammunition for them to charge you with something. Remember that Obama already weaponised the IRS against political opponents. This gives that weapon a whole lot more bullets.
Second caveat is automation of this stuff. Someone already said credit cards but that's nothing to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) which they will be pushing very soon. With that they can track a whole lot more still, from both ends of the transaction. And it will be built from the ground up to facilitate Big Data analysis whilst cards were just an evolution of cheques and cash.
What I'm not clear on is if this proposed tax is entirely new or if he's just increasing the rate. The way people are talking it's wholly new?
Individualism Incarnate
kiwifarms.net
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- Sep 23, 2019
Its both. There's a new tax and the older tax rate is going up at the same time.
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2022
The Fed’s Forecasting Method Looks Increasingly Outdated as Bernanke Pitches an Alternative
Bloomberg (archive.ph)
By Craig Torres
2024-04-21 12:42:55GMT
Bloomberg (archive.ph)
By Craig Torres
2024-04-21 12:42:55GMT
The Federal Reserve is stuck in a mode of forecasting and public communication that looks increasingly limited, especially as the economy keeps delivering surprises.
The issue is not the forecasts themselves, though they’ve frequently been wrong. Rather, it’s that the focus on a central projection — such as three interest-rate cuts in 2024 — in an economy still undergoing post-pandemic tremors fails to communicate much about the plausible range of outcomes. The outlook for rates presented just last month now appears outdated amid a fresh wave of inflation.
An alternative method starting to gain steam is called scenario analysis, which involves emphasizing a range of credible risks to the baseline and how a central bank might respond. It’s a tactic that becomes especially useful in times of high economic uncertainty.
“The Fed urgently needs to incorporate scenario analysis into its public communications,” said Dartmouth College professor Andrew Levin, who was a top adviser to former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. Levin describes it as “stress tests for monetary policy.”
Bernanke himself is currently making a similar case across the Atlantic. He recommended the Bank of England adopt such an approach in a report published this month for the UK central bank. It wouldn’t be the first to do so: Sweden’s Riksbank, for example, already uses scenarios to think about alternative policy paths.
Publishing both central and alternative scenarios means “the public will be able to draw sharper inferences about the reaction function and thus better anticipate future policy actions,” Bernanke wrote in his review of the BOE’s forecasting methods.
A sizzling economy continues to surprise Fed officials. From December to March, they revised up their outlook for growth in 2024
by a substantial 0.7 percentage point and projected three rate cuts this year, according to their median estimate.
Higher-than-expected inflation data quickly rendered that call obsolete, at least in financial markets: Investors have dialed back the number of cuts expected this year, while options markets say the probability of one cut or less is about a coin toss.
The projections represent a compilation of the views of 19 policymakers about the likely trajectory for growth, unemployment, inflation and interest rates. By design and intention, the Fed trains the eyes of investors and analysts on the median estimates. But at times like the present, when the economy is highly unpredictable, the full range of views acquires more importance.
In March, for example, nine of 19 officials wrote down two rate cuts or fewer for 2024, a view that has suddenly become more plausible with the arrival of the latest inflation figures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s constant refrain is that what the central bank ultimately decides on rates will depend on the data, though he has leaned into the rate-cut narrative this year.
Without a sense of how officials might revise their path for rates in a “hot economy” scenario, “any shift in these outlooks creates more volatility,” said Ira Jersey, chief US interest-rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Understanding how the Fed is handicapping such potential outcomes could provide valuable information,” he said.
Fed staff economists do run scenarios for policymakers. But they are model-driven, don’t reflect an agreed-upon anticipated reaction of the rate-setting committee and are irrelevant for communications purposes since they are made public only with a five-year lag.
Historical Record
There are several ways Fed officials could begin to communicate the risk of alternative paths. The New York Fed already asks Wall Street dealers to assign probabilities for different outcomes of the year-end policy rate. If policymakers did the same, investors would have likely seen a greater-than-zero chance of no rate cuts in 2024.
“From their perspective, it may be tidier to communicate about baseline outcomes. The question is, ‘What is the most helpful thing to do?’” said Kris Dawsey, the head of economic research at the investment firm D.E. Shaw Group. “There is a sense that it is costly to change the way they communicate on the rate path too abruptly.”
After what has been a volatile couple of years for the economy, Dawsey’s analysis shows that economic forecasts collected from market participants and published by the New York Fed also show a tighter range of outcomes than the historical record suggests, going back to World War II.
Dawsey said in his own view, another year of economic growth above 3% is slightly less than a coin toss, based on historical patterns. That’s a risk that both investors and central bankers have to take on board and talk about.
The information value of the Fed’s quarterly projections is something officials have been concerned about for years. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, when she was Fed vice chair in 2012, tried to get the committee to agree on publishing a consensus forecast. That effort was unsuccessful.
“There is no getting away from the fact that policymakers are laying out a single policy path and they need a modal outlook,” said Ellen Meade, a Duke University professor and former Fed board staff member. Once they have that, “scenarios can be good for discussing with the public about the fact that the modal path is not 100% or set in stone and what the most prominent risks are.”
At least some current Fed officials do seem amenable to that kind of approach. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who has in the past served on the central bank’s subcommittee for communications, calls herself “a fan” of scenario analysis. Her Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari published an essay last year outlining two competing economic outlooks and their hypothetical implications for interest rates.
The Fed tends to move slowly when it comes to innovations in public communications practices. But Bernanke’s BOE review could spur more thinking on how to talk more about rate-path probabilities and alternative scenarios, said JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief US economist Michael Feroli.
And the timing may also be fortuitous: Fed officials later this year will launch another policy framework review after undertaking the first of its kind at the central bank in 2019 and 2020.
“I think it will come back to these shores,” Feroli said.
The issue is not the forecasts themselves, though they’ve frequently been wrong. Rather, it’s that the focus on a central projection — such as three interest-rate cuts in 2024 — in an economy still undergoing post-pandemic tremors fails to communicate much about the plausible range of outcomes. The outlook for rates presented just last month now appears outdated amid a fresh wave of inflation.
An alternative method starting to gain steam is called scenario analysis, which involves emphasizing a range of credible risks to the baseline and how a central bank might respond. It’s a tactic that becomes especially useful in times of high economic uncertainty.
“The Fed urgently needs to incorporate scenario analysis into its public communications,” said Dartmouth College professor Andrew Levin, who was a top adviser to former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. Levin describes it as “stress tests for monetary policy.”
Bernanke himself is currently making a similar case across the Atlantic. He recommended the Bank of England adopt such an approach in a report published this month for the UK central bank. It wouldn’t be the first to do so: Sweden’s Riksbank, for example, already uses scenarios to think about alternative policy paths.
Publishing both central and alternative scenarios means “the public will be able to draw sharper inferences about the reaction function and thus better anticipate future policy actions,” Bernanke wrote in his review of the BOE’s forecasting methods.
A sizzling economy continues to surprise Fed officials. From December to March, they revised up their outlook for growth in 2024
by a substantial 0.7 percentage point and projected three rate cuts this year, according to their median estimate.
Higher-than-expected inflation data quickly rendered that call obsolete, at least in financial markets: Investors have dialed back the number of cuts expected this year, while options markets say the probability of one cut or less is about a coin toss.
The projections represent a compilation of the views of 19 policymakers about the likely trajectory for growth, unemployment, inflation and interest rates. By design and intention, the Fed trains the eyes of investors and analysts on the median estimates. But at times like the present, when the economy is highly unpredictable, the full range of views acquires more importance.
In March, for example, nine of 19 officials wrote down two rate cuts or fewer for 2024, a view that has suddenly become more plausible with the arrival of the latest inflation figures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s constant refrain is that what the central bank ultimately decides on rates will depend on the data, though he has leaned into the rate-cut narrative this year.
Without a sense of how officials might revise their path for rates in a “hot economy” scenario, “any shift in these outlooks creates more volatility,” said Ira Jersey, chief US interest-rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Understanding how the Fed is handicapping such potential outcomes could provide valuable information,” he said.
Fed staff economists do run scenarios for policymakers. But they are model-driven, don’t reflect an agreed-upon anticipated reaction of the rate-setting committee and are irrelevant for communications purposes since they are made public only with a five-year lag.
Historical Record
There are several ways Fed officials could begin to communicate the risk of alternative paths. The New York Fed already asks Wall Street dealers to assign probabilities for different outcomes of the year-end policy rate. If policymakers did the same, investors would have likely seen a greater-than-zero chance of no rate cuts in 2024.
“From their perspective, it may be tidier to communicate about baseline outcomes. The question is, ‘What is the most helpful thing to do?’” said Kris Dawsey, the head of economic research at the investment firm D.E. Shaw Group. “There is a sense that it is costly to change the way they communicate on the rate path too abruptly.”
After what has been a volatile couple of years for the economy, Dawsey’s analysis shows that economic forecasts collected from market participants and published by the New York Fed also show a tighter range of outcomes than the historical record suggests, going back to World War II.
Dawsey said in his own view, another year of economic growth above 3% is slightly less than a coin toss, based on historical patterns. That’s a risk that both investors and central bankers have to take on board and talk about.
The information value of the Fed’s quarterly projections is something officials have been concerned about for years. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, when she was Fed vice chair in 2012, tried to get the committee to agree on publishing a consensus forecast. That effort was unsuccessful.
“There is no getting away from the fact that policymakers are laying out a single policy path and they need a modal outlook,” said Ellen Meade, a Duke University professor and former Fed board staff member. Once they have that, “scenarios can be good for discussing with the public about the fact that the modal path is not 100% or set in stone and what the most prominent risks are.”
At least some current Fed officials do seem amenable to that kind of approach. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who has in the past served on the central bank’s subcommittee for communications, calls herself “a fan” of scenario analysis. Her Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari published an essay last year outlining two competing economic outlooks and their hypothetical implications for interest rates.
The Fed tends to move slowly when it comes to innovations in public communications practices. But Bernanke’s BOE review could spur more thinking on how to talk more about rate-path probabilities and alternative scenarios, said JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief US economist Michael Feroli.
And the timing may also be fortuitous: Fed officials later this year will launch another policy framework review after undertaking the first of its kind at the central bank in 2019 and 2020.
“I think it will come back to these shores,” Feroli said.
I posted this video in the Houthi thread, but it deserves a post here since you mentioned that:
- Joined
- Nov 22, 2021
The USA needs more pragmatic Realpolitik-focused diplomats at the helm not obsessed with international political purity and morals to have a chance in this changing world when it comes to maintaining or expanding national influence across the globe. Unfortunately for anyone that cares about the idea of an American sphere of influence the people Biden's regime has selected for this kind of work are incompetent and arrogant.
As far as foreign policy goes, the only big wins in the last four years for the United States is Sweden and Finland joining NATO and that only happened because of Russia. Everything else is a mess at best and a disaster at worst.
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- Joined
- Nov 15, 2021
There is nothing that draws the tax man's attention like a business.
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2016
So you know the saying that all forgien politics is really domestic politics?
you can be a politician and make the correct call/pragmatic call only for your domestic political rivals/enemies to tear you to shit.
I think the twitter or social media mind virus is real, and our "managerial" class eats that shit up. So you get people in the state department running these retarded programs but it makes them and their masters look better back home.
What I m trying to say is their is a value what you call global homo and I dont think its a bunch of unamed men sitting in a bunker jacking off.
Gay exist and are honestly a super minority but it became fashionable thanks to a cultural shift.
for example johny if two gross middle age men are sucking eachother off, does that make you angry? I mean sure if they are doing it on your yard then yeah spray them with the hose and call them faggots
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2023
If you look at your bank statement, you may notice a complete lack of itemized receipts.
The bank transaction only covers how much you paid to who. The government would have to force the company you purchased from to provide itemized receipts of every purchase sold, including a universal description for products that would use labelling unique to that inventory system. They'll go after things that already get registration submitted to the government, like homes and cars and guns and such.
Not saying that it isn't possible, but that's a massive amount of unorganized information that would need to be parsed. At best it would be used retroactively, as a punitive measure to those that refuse to gobble Biden's cock.
If that was true then shell corporations and offshore tax havens wouldn't be so popular with big business. They'll still go after small business owners that don't know all the tax evasion tricks, but all of the bigger companies will get off scott free.
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2022
99% of it is bots talking to each other, the other 10% are a lucky few humans.
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2023
I get what you're saying but your math doesn't add up
Honka Honka Burning Love
In Clown World, the only god is the one who Honks.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2019
Oh yes because paying for sweeden and finlands military is such a win
- Joined
- Apr 1, 2017
Two adults in private?
I don't give a shit what they do.
>looks at Pride Parade
Oh, yeah. That.
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2019
I have a theory this is all a Trojan horse for demonic garbage.your really testing my memories of elementary school. Plus inviting a sperge fight.
The book of revelation's is basically written in coded language, because persecution it tended to be ignored till some pastor I wanna say it was miller claimed to predict the 2nd coming.
heres a good read on it
Anyway growing up in the 1990s with desert storm happening and my parents foolishly enrolling me in a private school that was run by a cult. I heard non stop about the temple, the end times, the anti christ the dome of the rock, the 2nd temple, and of course
JESUS WILL COME IN THE YEAR 2000 BECAUSE GOD LIKES ROUND NUMBER
AND CATHOLICS ARE EVIL!!!
to put a bow on it
There is alot support for iserial because "certain" evangelicals believe the state of iserial needs to exist for the end times to happen.
Story of politics summed up
The hilarious thing about the African problem is they cant launch a military response even if they were capable. The politics of oppression would crucify them.
Just Some Other Guy
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Mar 25, 2018
"But muh heckin' sphere of influence"
Meanwhile the homeland is falling apart in shambles. But hey, at least we expanded NATO!
mandatorylurk
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2019
Ajit Pai removed it in Trump's first term, everyone acted like it would end the internet but it didn't, and now instead of realizing they were wrong or that people just don't care anymore and they could hide taking the L, they have to bring Fag Neutrality back.
CarlosDanger
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2020
Such a good day for Trump all around. Also the defense of the government to say no president has ever committed a crime might be the most retarded thing I ever heard, especially when Justice Thomas brought up Operation Mongoose.
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- Joined
- Dec 23, 2022
The justices just loaded up a SAW with a belt full of examples and let fly.
I'm surprised watergate didn't come up.
6MillionCoofs
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2019
I mean, they know they do not have an actually good argument. They are just hoping thry hate Trump enough to let it slide.
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