Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Fatsuit Shinji]

There's ironic memes about god emperors and then there's whatever this is. I hope they look back on this period of their lives and cringe at how close they came to ushering in a literal fascist dictatorship in the name of "preserving democracy."

You're talking about people who lack the self-awareness of why being a (left of) Stalinist and/or Maoist communist is horrifying to anyone who isn't a communist.

 

[National Defense Advocate]

I went into the other Ukraine war thread and asked them why they support Russia in this particular conflict.

Almost every single response I got was retarded to a shocking degree. Those people live in a complete fantasy land.
One guy openly admitted he was dumb and didn't understand the conflict at all.

I was honestly expecting paragraphs of explanations, referencing historical events and leaders. Nope, just some of the dumbest shit I've ever heard, completely detached from reality.

 

[Ghostse]

Theres actually a lot of countries which where involved in Iraq. Outside of the UK, Australia and Poland it was all pr bribes.

I never interacted with them but I knew lots of guys who did and talked about the Georgian soldiers being pretty solid guys.
Until you know Russia invaded their country and they had to go back home to defend it from Putin and Russia.

The American MIC is pretty fucked dude. Our defense industry has a vested interest in being behind schedule and overbudget. As this objectively results in being paid more. There is no end to that in sight. I do not understand where the idea comes from that we are outproducing them in context of war materials. As Ukraine has consistent problems with basic munitions supplies that Russia does not. Or has much less of as despite the endless articles of them running out any day now, they don't seem to be.

A lot of the US MIC is run for sustainability & cost-effectness not scale since the USSR imploded.
Before dunking on Russia the HIMARS was being produced at less than 1 per month. Now they are running to the max to try to fill orders...but the max is like 3 per month.
The US army, in specific, had offlined their main ordinance production facilities down to "barely enough production for training and replacement of shit aging out" for upgrades and some of the are just now coming back online.

How will the Russians keep up with the losses?

Smekalka & chinese golf carts

Which is evidently counterproductive to the objectives of the nations supplying Ukraine. I'm sure Ukrainians would love a swift victory tomorrow, but realpolitik dictates that it's best for everyone else that Russia is fighting a war of attrition for 5 years.

There is also the concern of a Ukraine more well-armed than Germany. All these fun toys don't start shooting NERF just because Putin stops wildin'.

Daily reminder Ukraine sold Iran the Russian Cruise missles that serve as the foundation for Iran (and the Norks) entire missile program.

That and Russia getting more shells from Norkland and missiles from Iran.
Like Russia has its own domestic MIC capable of production, but Russia's allies were delivering while Ukraine's allies weren't doing as much.

Russia and its allies are mostly liquidating their cold-war stocks to run Russia's war effort. This isn't sustainable, but it doesn't have to be. Those stocks run deep, and they are approaching and in some cases past their USE BY dates so the costs are not as great as new production is.

The counting people claimed about 1650 per year, which seems far more reasonable.
Most things also don't really run out. Availability decreases and as a result options narrow. For the foreseeable future the Russians can decide how much to invest and I don't think it's credible that they'd deplete both the storage and the active service. People forget that there's thousands of vehicles in active service, so storage being used up in 12-18 months (assuming current loss rates) doesn't mean there's suddenly nothing left. It might mean that the current style of "mechanized assaults until the enemy runs out of ammunition, then advance" would no longer be viable.

I would buy the 4-5 per week number as "This is the number of CURRENT YEAR spec" IFVs that Russia can produce new. But if we dial that back to 90s or 80s specs, 1600 per year sounds realistic especially when you add in parts from stored systems and battle salvage.

And you raise a point I've raised before but its good to keep in memory:
Russia largely controls the pace of the war. They are in a very good position to escalate or deescalate based on their supply situation. Even if Russia sends every running BMP at the Ukrainian lines and they are all destroyed tomorrow, all that means is Russia can't send anymore BMPs at Ukraine. Russia can deescalate till their are more.

 

[World in Scarlet]

I went into the other Ukraine war thread and asked them why they support Russia in this particular conflict.

It's nice to see they're enjoying the display of western equipment. It's a bit cringe to copy what Ukrainians did in 2022 two years later, but you can't be picky in the Russian World.
Soldiers literally died to retrieve those vehicles too. IIRC there's a videos of two recovery vehicles getting blown up trying to sneak one off and I read Russian bloggers talk about their losses retrieving other pieces.
They even repaired the burned out Leopard 2A6 with T-80 wheels and gave it a fresh paint job.
Though people complained it looked too triumphant, so they had to lower the gun by force.

link

 

[National Defense Advocate]

It's nice to see they're enjoying the display of western equipment. It's a bit cringe to copy what Ukrainians did in 2022 two years later, but you can't be picky in the Russian World.
Soldiers literally died to retrieve those vehicles too. IIRC there's a videos of two recovery vehicles getting blown up trying to sneak one off and I read Russian bloggers talk about their losses retrieving other pieces.
They even repaired the burned out Leopard 2A6 with T-80 wheels and gave it a fresh paint job.
Though people complained it looked too triumphant, so they had to lower the gun by force.
View attachment 5950511
link

I'm like 90% sure the Leopard has a manual turret drive, they could have just hopped in and lowered the turret by hand instead of... whatever the fuck they decided to do. Break it, I guess.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

One guy openly admitted he was dumb and didn't understand the conflict at all.

He's a Chinese Singaporean still resident in decadent democracy Singapore who doesn't even live in glorious multipolar power Communist China, let alone Russia.

 

[teriyakiburns]

I'm like 90% sure the Leopard has a manual turret drive, they could have just hopped in and lowered the turret by hand instead of... whatever the fuck they decided to do. Break it, I guess.

Smekalka in action.

 

[karz]

Though people complained it looked too triumphant, so they had to lower the gun by force.

Break it, I guess.

The Leopard 2A6 has a very mechanically advanced stabilizer. It is electrically driven but can be manually moved in an emergency.
The Russian Ministry of Defense could have taken the 2A6 for a breakdown and seen how the tank works (smart). May 9 is still a week and some days out.
Instead, forcefully moving down the gun like that has irreparably damaged the vertical drive, cannon barrel, and stabilizer. They will still glean some useful information from it, but they likely won't be able to replicate it because
1) Due to its complexity it is an expensive stabilizer system (MoD doesn't like to pay for anything except artillery shells)
2) They fucking broke it lol lmao

Russian Alcoholism must be affecting their brain stems, given their retarded decision-making.

Edit: They have also given the captured tanks a fresh coat of paint. I don't know why exactly. The prevailing hypothesis is to show that the tanks were abandoned and captured with little effort or loss (hahahaha)
Allegedly the Russians also captured an Abrams but have been unable to move it to Moscow. It's probably because it's too heavy for their engineering vehicles to move.

 

[Ghostse]

1) Due to its complexity it is an expensive stabilizer system (MoD doesn't like to pay for anything except artillery shells)
2) They fucking broke it lol lmao

Russian Alcoholism must be affecting their brain stems, given their retarded decision-making.

Bold of you to assume even if given a non-broken one or fuck it plans they'd be able to replicate it in any meaningful way.

 

[74164978231]

A lot of the US MIC is run for sustainability & cost-effectness not scale since the USSR imploded.
Before dunking on Russia the HIMARS was being produced at less than 1 per month. Now they are running to the max to try to fill orders...but the max is like 3 per month.
The US army, in specific, had offlined their main ordinance production facilities down to "barely enough production for training and replacement of shit aging out" for upgrades and some of the are just now coming back online.

How many new ordnance plants have we built in the last 2 years with all these billions being handed out again?

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

There is also the concern of a Ukraine more well-armed than Germany. All these fun toys don't start shooting NERF just because Putin stops wildin'.

Daily reminder Ukraine sold Iran the Russian Cruise missles that serve as the foundation for Iran (and the Norks) entire missile program.

Bringing Ukraine into NATO would probably alleviate that. It would mean NATO troops, officers and advisors on the ground, keeping a close eye on Ukraine's military (and the equipment).

 

[Ghostse]

How many new ordnance plants have we built in the last 2 years with all these billions being handed out again?

More than the number of dicks your mother hasn't sucked.

Here, have some reading. Provided you are able to read.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/04/18/us-army-document-details-plan-to-update-wwii-era-ammo-plants-and-depots/

 

[74164978231]

More than the number of dicks your mother hasn't sucked.

Here, have some reading. Provided you are able to read.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/04/18/us-army-document-details-plan-to-update-wwii-era-ammo-plants-and-depots/

That article mentioned absolutely nothing about building actual new ADDITIONAL ordnance/ammo plants. All that money thats been spent is at best upgrading ancient relic infrastructure from WW2 that should have already been long replaced. Its not genuinely adding capacity to arms and ammo manufacturing.

Get back to me when we build lake city #2 along side lake city #1. These upgrades to existing infrastructure is pissing on a wildfire of requirement for a genuine conflict. We need 10x as much current capacity.

 

[Grotesque Bushes]

There is also the concern of a Ukraine more well-armed than Germany. All these fun toys don't start shooting NERF just because Putin stops wildin'.

Assuming Ukraine somehow wins this war tomorrow it's economically and demographically fucked to such an extent it'd be unable to conduct war for another generation. I base that on analysis from Asspull Unlimited and I'd trust them with my life. Still it's a valid point, someone is likely looking at the big picture here and what could happen in 20-30 years.

That article mentioned absolutely nothing about building actual new ADDITIONAL ordnance/ammo plants. All that money thats been spent is at best upgrading ancient relic infrastructure from WW2 that should have already been long replaced. Its not genuinely adding capacity to arms and ammo manufacturing.

Get back to me when we build lake city #2 along side lake city #1. These upgrades to existing infrastructure is pissing on a wildfire of requirement for a genuine conflict. We need 10x as much current capacity.

Why are you under the impression that for US politicians this is anything but another proxy war? They trust their high tech equipment, air superiority doctrine and artillery shell reserves calculated for a month of combat [aka maybe a week under 'oh shit they comin' conditions]. Eastern Europe definitely sees the invasion of Ukraine as a pivotal moment and are all shovelling money into their military budgets to expand capabilities every which way, but the further west you go the response gets milder and milder.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Ryazan oil refinery, 500km from the border of Ukraine, is struck:

Ukrainian ATACMS strike, with 4 ATACMS, including one dud, hitting a Russian training area in Mozhnyakivka, Luhansk Oblast.

Based on the footage the losses will be significant. 80km behind the front line.
Rohove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine
3:51 - 49.641, 39.0467
4:08 - 49.639, 39.04588 (vehicles and soldiers)
5:47 - 49.61996, 39.06301
5:47 - 49.63696, 39.03448

First ATACMS strike:

Various informative images from this /k/ thread:

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

That article mentioned absolutely nothing about building actual new ADDITIONAL ordnance/ammo plants. All that money thats been spent is at best upgrading ancient relic infrastructure from WW2 that should have already been long replaced. Its not genuinely adding capacity to arms and ammo manufacturing.

Get back to me when we build lake city #2 along side lake city #1. These upgrades to existing infrastructure is pissing on a wildfire of requirement for a genuine conflict. We need 10x as much current capacity.

Iirc it will almost certainly need Acts of Congress to build facilities. Secondly after the almost entire U.S. M.I.C. getting destroyed by Clinton's Peace Dividend,
and before that the draw down after WWII. The U.S. M.I.C. absolutely loathes to put itself in that position again by risking itself building up and lose everything if and when the contracts do get cancelled at best. Or worse someone will do their Dick Cheney impersonation and orders the complete scrapping of system(s) and spare parts being built.

Having said that, there is fuck-fuck games afoot happening with the M.I.C. moreso as about all of it is now international corporations with no loyalty to their originating country i.e. USA or other.

 

[‘84 Fuckerbird Trans Man]

Allegedly the Russians also captured an Abrams but have been unable to move it to Moscow. It's probably because it's too heavy for their engineering vehicles to move.

Nah, is all good, they used donkeys to drag it over here.

Ooga booga

 

[klab]

Nah, is all good, they used donkeys to drag it over here.

View attachment 5952508

Ooga booga

View attachment 5952518

I wish there were a higher resolution of this photo. Some details to pick out like:

whitest russian

recrooter (who knows, but is wearing VDV beret so i think it's likely)

 

[MG-34]

M2 Bradley chews up an MT-LB

Zigger solider doesn't know how to set his rear sight assembly.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

[Latvian Foreign Minister] Baiba Braže: some allies allow Ukraine to STRIKE RUSSIA.

Baiba Braže, the new Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia, has chosen Ukraine for her first bilateral visit. She spoke to Sergiy Sydorenko (Сергій Сидоренко), European Pravda, about Latvia's support for Ukraine with a million drones in the “drones coalition,” and about Ukraine’s sovereign right to strike back targets on the Russian territory during Russo-Ukrainian war.

00:00 Intro
01:12 Weapons for Ukraine and more…
02:07 What can change to win the war
03:29 Time doesn’t play for Russia
04:21 Striking Russia is – legally allowed for Ukraine
05:48 Some Allies ALLOW Ukraine to strike Russia
06:29 Changing air defence for Ukraine
08:22 Will Russia attack NATO countries?
09:45 NATO changes approach on Russia
10:41 9th of May threat in Baltics
13:37 “Latvian” drones for Ukraine
14:59 1 mln drones and long-range drones
16:13 Ukraine will win!