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US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians
- Thread starter SeniorFuckFace
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Random Internet Person
kiwifarms.net
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I'm tempted to just not go outside this entire month. Every year they get more and more obnoxious with this month.
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- Jul 25, 2019
Literal shower thought. I just realized accepting gays is kinda like smoking cigarettes. You do it once, and no harm done... and that sweet, sweet nicotine is pretty damn good. But if you let it get to be a habit, soon enough you're smoking a pack a day, but you don't quit because you're not seeing any detrimental effects yet. In a decade, you have a persistent cough, and in another you have lung cancer.
The point being is that letting one or a few gays run rampant isn't really going to hurt anything, but if you do it too much, things get fucky... and the damages are on a delay, so it's easy to just allow it for now or pretend the damages aren't caused by the actual root cause.
The point being is that letting one or a few gays run rampant isn't really going to hurt anything, but if you do it too much, things get fucky... and the damages are on a delay, so it's easy to just allow it for now or pretend the damages aren't caused by the actual root cause.
Literally the only sign that it was pride month to me last year (besides the news stories on the farms) is that my place of work flew a pride flag for one day on a weekend... long enough to get a photo, really, then took it down. The newsletter had photos or I'd have never known it happened.
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- Jun 18, 2019
I don’t know how the Reuters poll could be more explicit about reflecting the trial, because they literally wrote it on the header:
57% said the trial had no effect on their likelihood to vote for Orange Man, 19% said positive, and 24% said negative.
Like everything else these days, the effects were completely different based on partisanship.
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- Jul 3, 2021
Gehenna’s turned into a real lolcow with his big-brained predictions lmao
Forest Portal Triumph 747
kiwifarms.net
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- Oct 9, 2021
Leaked Fallout 2 Footage regarding the Deep State plot against T R U M P
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- Mar 8, 2023
Looks like the trolls and lefty faggots have returned to the thread. The emergency NPC button must have been pressed with a new software update.
Forest Portal Triumph 747
kiwifarms.net
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- Oct 9, 2021
@Buttigieg2020 Reuters/Ipsos historically overestimated Hilldawg hard in 2016 in most of their polls, along with overestimating Dems in 2018 in multiple polls, along with overestimating chomo joe in 2020 in most of their polls
the fact that the best they can muster is chomo joe + 2 in their push poll right after news of the trial outcome, means that T R U M P is still ahead in the national popular vote
the fact that the best they can muster is chomo joe + 2 in their push poll right after news of the trial outcome, means that T R U M P is still ahead in the national popular vote
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2020
Sounds like what's going on here, except they seem to be making it a bigger deal than it really should be and also act like they are keeping it up for an entire month.
And this is just day 1.
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- Apr 30, 2016
I view it more as an illustration of the pitfalls of the identity-based activism complex that the Civil Rights Act indirectly created (that's exacerbated by LGBT membership being rooted in self-identification and not immutable characteristics like race/sex based activism). And, I suppose, a lesson that if you start tolerating troonery, midwit white women are going to re-subscribe to the gender essentialist worldview they hated when it came from fundamentalist Christians, and start grooming your kids into troons if they aren't a chad/stacy archetype, because it makes them feel so heckin' valid as allies.
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- Jun 14, 2016
Listen if people didn't act like completely tribal chimpanzees over politics this thread would be a lot less interesting
Don't know what you've got til it's gone, etc
- Joined
- May 6, 2019
Here's the thing, polls take a while to bake. Its not -just- calling up a bunch of people. You need to craft the questions, get them out there, spend a bit of time accumulating responses, then compile the data. And while a fair bit of that is automated, any good pollster would spend a while to make sure its good if for no other reason than maintaining his own data set.
And honestly, Reuters is a great example of why. So, how Reuters/Ipsos works is that for their quick polls they simply just skip any sort of attempt to match their polling to actual demographics and just do a raw poll and post the numbers. They also cut out a ton of questions to just give some raw "are you a republican or a Democrat".
Why is this a problem? Well, first off because this is useless and Buttigeg2020 here accidentally notes why. This will get you -exactly- what is expected and tell you not a single iota of information more. It is utterly worthless for predictive modeling or even mere speculation. This is "We put out a quick poll so we can advertise it!". A big second reason is that people develop their opinions over time, their first blush reaction will -very frequently- not match their eventual conclusion. not en masse, but enough to start moving a few percentage points that can be vital for actual predictive analysis. A final reason why is that because a quick poll like this requires broad questions with almost no nuance or attempt to make the results reflect actual representative amounts is... well, its more or less bullshit from the word go.
"20% of respondents say Trump's conviction will make them less likely to vote for him!" -Sounds- damning... until you realize that this is so bare bones it didn't even -bother- to ask if the person was even going to actually vote in the first place. Its just void of anything useful.
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- Feb 22, 2017
There were 3 days of riots in DC after Trump was inaugurated the first time, coupled with protests all around the country where bridges and roads were blocked in every major city. There were 0 consequences in most places, but the DC rioters were paid out millions of dollars for being arrested for rioting because it's mean to arrest them, according to DC judges.
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- Dec 17, 2019
Nigga if the look like they aged gracefully most likely they had tastefully work done you aint seeing it
Fucking hell I hope they do and give them taste of their own medicine.
Can someone explain to me how trump isnt 20+ considering the economy and inflation is wrecking the lives of everyone
Can you post the his prediction ?
Rykel22
kiwifarms.net
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- Mar 24, 2019
Can't say for sure, but the people they ask aren't always a proper cross-section of the populace.
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- Jan 30, 2015
Nothing better to be proud of than having to change your diaper on the battlefield because you got a loose asshole
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- May 6, 2019
I -think- the latest so-called failed prediction is me claiming it would be a mistrial. Nevermind I never said that, explicitly said my theory-crafting was only to say what would be needed for a mistrial, and I repeatedly stressed that a mistrial was by no means a likely let alone assured thing.
Reading comprehension isn't a lot of peoples strong suit.
I think the last prediction I was legitimately wrong about was the midterms. I had horrifically underestimated how much the GOPe would self sabotage just to keep Trumpian Populists out.
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- Jun 18, 2019
The last presidential race to be decided by more than single digits was Reagan V Mondale in 1984. 40 years ago.
Most people probably vote their party on habit as much as anything else.
Dr J
kiwifarms.net
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- Nov 13, 2020
Not everyone. There are people who are profiting. Biden's friends, for example.
Shy Trump effect is also a factor.
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- Apr 21, 2013
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