US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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The ruling party has always been punished for dropping the incumbent. Happened in 52' with Truman, happened in '68 with LBJ, happened with James K Polk, happened with James Buchanan. Only times it didn't happen were Coolidge and Rutherford B Hayes
There are reasons besides just dropping the incumbent that all those incumbents you mentioned had bad things happen to the party overall and the two you mentioned as exceptions benefitted from times of relative prosperity.
In order:
>upjumped Missourian haberdasher who threatened to use nukes until the Soviets got it, then looked like an idiot with his backtracking (doesn't help his successor was OLD bougie Democrat lineage in an age where they still pretended to be a rural party)
>Vietnam and uppity negroes
>Ultimate mic drop of a term and nobody, not even his party, thought he'd follow through on his promise to resign afterwards so they had no replacement plan of note
>Literally the most divisive election in this country's history
 
Yes, but dropping the incumbent generally is a sign that either the incumbent personally or their party political apparatus view their situation as untenable
You can be punished for dropping an untenable incumbent but also for not dropping them. Gotta fight the battle you are in today and figure out which situation is MORE untenable.
 
No, they destroyed their upcoming crops of new talent, while at the same time they utterly refuse to give up even an inch of power they have clawed onto over the past 50 years. This ends when the fucking boomers like Schumer / Pelosi / McConnel / etc die and they're finally, FINALLY, forced to let go of the reigns of power, and not a second sooner
I think right now what we're seeing is that they don't actually have to die first, power just falls right out of their arthritis weakened hands.
 
I believe the 2020 plan was for Biden to win and then resign for health reasons shortly after the midterms, but Kamala turned out to be so incredibly unlikeable and 2022 was looking bad enough that they scrapped that plan.

That's how I understood it at the time.

Biden in, it was highly suggested he'd be a one-term President. He drops out before the end of the term. They get their first female and *cough* black President. Run on identity politics for the next election. They're just too retarded that they set it up so Kamala was the only option they had.

What's the general African American view on being told Kamala is a black woman? You can just look at Biden's recent ramblings about being a black vice president under a black President to get an idea of how retarded they are on race peddling.
 
Boys I'm ngl, this post-debate Dem meltdown is rapidly approaching the pure uncut schadenfreude of the 2016 aftermath when Trump sent Killary to the glue factory.

Watching Biden call himself a black woman on his "I'll show them how sharp I am" comeback tour, then The Economist absolutely puts him in a bodybag with their cover story... hot damn, this is weapons grade lulz.
Yeah but remember folks. It's July. Too many people out there have too short of a memory to remember all this, current, brouhaha.
 
What's the general African American view on being told Kamala is a black woman? You can just look at Biden's recent ramblings about being a black vice president under a black President to get an idea of how retarded they are on race peddling.
Verbatim, from a best friend, "she doesn't sound even remotely black, she sounds like Hillary wearing a skinsuit. Condoleeza Rice is more authentically black, and none of us are voting for her either unless its to run a football team"
 
Democratic donors push Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom as Joe Biden replacements
Financial Times (archive.ph)
By James Fontanella-Khan, Lauren Fedor, and Alex Rogers
2024-07-04 23:56:50GMT
Michigan and Californian governors gain favour as US president enters make-or-break period to save candidacy

Top Democratic donors have made Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom their preferred candidates to replace Joe Biden in the White House race against Donald Trump, said several people familiar with the matter.

The donor focus on Michigan governor Whitmer and California governor Newsom reflects deepening frustration among Democratic operatives and backers with the impasse over Biden’s future.

Donors remain anxious about Biden’s condition and his polling since the disastrous debate with Trump last week, saying the president’s campaign is simply delaying an inevitable battle for succession with four months to go until November’s general election.

“Biden’s candidacy is doomed,” said a donor and bundler close to the president. “I’m Joe’s biggest fan, he’s an admirable public servant but he’s doomed . . . we need to start putting all our focus on what comes next.”

Vice-president Kamala Harris is also among candidates donors think could replace Biden, said several donors and bundlers, who have held talks among themselves as they prepare to raise hundreds of millions of dollars to fund a new candidate.

Democratic party grandees, including top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, have also held crisis talks with large donors to gauge their mood following the debate, donors and bundlers said.

“You’re starting to see a lot of frustration among donors and the pressure is mounting to turn the page and start focusing on finding the right candidate to win against Trump,” said a New York-based bundler. “Everybody is talking to their contacts to make sure we are ready to back the right candidate as soon as Biden steps down.”

Whitmer and Newsom joined other governors who met Biden for emergency talks at the White House on Wednesday, less than a week after his stumbling debate performance sparked immediate calls for him to be replaced on the Democratic ticket.

Both governors reiterated their backing for the president’s re-election campaign afterwards — but their donors and bundlers are working behind closed doors to support them should they step into the White House race, people familiar with the matter said.

Whitmer has been posting her support for Biden on social media — and is a co-chair of his re-election campaign — while posting a link on X that directs donations to her own political action committee, not Biden’s campaign.

The Michigan governor also plans to attend the annual gathering of technology and media titans in Sun Valley, Idaho, next week, offering her an opportunity to meet key Democratic megadonors.

Newsom has been a prominent surrogate for Biden for months, including defending his debate performance in the media “spin room” after last week’s debate in Atlanta. But he has raised eyebrows by conducting what some politics watchers have described as a shadow campaign, participating in a televised debate with Florida governor Ron DeSantis last year and travelling to several early primary and swing states.

Newsom on Thursday delivered a speech praising Biden in battleground state Michigan.

Whitmer appears to have more support among donors, with several people saying she would have a stronger chance of beating Trump in swing states such as Michigan, where she won the governor’s race by more than 10 points in 2022. Recent opinion polling puts Trump ahead of Biden in the state by several points.

“Michigan is a much more important state than California when it comes to elections,” said a major donor. “If you look at the betting odds, Newsom is ahead but when you think about which states the Democratic party needs to win Michigan is critical and California isn’t . . . California is also viewed as a progressive anti-business, far-left progressive state with challenging policies. It could hurt us.”

A spokesperson for Newsom declined to comment. A spokesperson for Whitmer did not return a request for comment.

Donors’ efforts to find alternatives have come alongside calls from lawmakers in Biden’s party for him to withdraw from the race and polls published on Wednesday showed a stark drop in support for him since the debate.

Abigail Disney, the heiress of the media giant, said she would stop making contributions to the Democratic party until Biden steps aside. Separately, billionaire crypto investor Mike Novogratz is spearheading the creation of fund called Next Generation PAC to raise about $100mn to back whoever takes over the candidacy.

Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings, one of the party’s biggest donors, told the Financial Times the president needed to “step aside to allow a vigorous Democratic leader to beat Trump”.

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Ari Emanuel, one of Hollywood’s most powerful agents and a major Democratic donor, told a conference in Colorado that the only way to speed up the president’s exit was by cutting funding.

“The lifeblood to a campaign is money, and maybe the only way . . . is if the money starts drying up,” said Emanuel, whose brother Rahm is Biden’s ambassador to Japan and a former chief of staff of president Barack Obama.

“You’ll see in the next couple weeks, if the money comes in . . . I talked to a bunch of big donors, and they’re moving all their money to Congress and the Senate.”

But some donors have warned that any move to replace Biden with one of the governors could ignite a Democratic “civil war”, saying Harris would be a less-contentious choice.

Charles Myers, chair of Signum Global Advisors and a big donor, warned of “deep divisions” among Democrats in any new race.

An “open” Democratic convention in Chicago in August — with a candidate decided by floor vote — could also be hijacked by leftwing Democrats, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, warned some wealthy donors.

One said they feared an outcome akin to that in the UK in 2015, when leftwing politician Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader of the Labour party. He led Labour to two general election defeats.

That would bring an “annihilation at the polls in November”, said the major donor and bundler. “We don’t want a Corbyn situation like in the UK years ago.”

As a person close to Biden put it: “Ultimately this is going to be a bit of a shitshow for a while if and when he steps down.”

Additional reporting by Christopher Grimes in Los Angeles and Oliver Roeder in New York
 
Bro the miscellaneous, nebulously wealthy heiresses with a large gap between their ears are the ones you want donating to you.
If Disney did it proper there's all these regulations with the FEC/SEC that make it harder to funnel money into a random PAC or just massively overpay for a plate at some donation dinner.
If they're losing the idle elites that's a bad sign.
Abigail Disney is a regular in left wing politics and has basically no influence at all for Disney the company. In fact she agitates regularly to unionize Disney stuff and decry the actual anti worker stuff they do and decries the current ceo for being too conservative. Her publically agitating is a day ending in Y.

What really worries me is of this backstabbing by the media is something more insidious. That the rig machine is secure and in place and Trump will not win period. And this is the true believer wing of the cathedral making a move and causing instability to get someone even more left out there because the Dem candidate will win no matter what.
 
To me Harris kind of sounds like Urkel. Black people like Urkel, right?

Yeah but remember folks. It's July. Too many people out there have too short of a memory to remember all this, current, brouhaha.
So, here's a potential scenario: Right now we've got Trump leading and Biden floundering. We can expect the polls to tighten up a little bit as democratic panic and anger subsides and they realize they have to rally around Biden. Then we've got the Republican convention July 15 to 18, so probably a convention bump for Trump, landing us back around where we are now. Things will tighten back up a bit as the bump energy fades, and then in Aug 19-Aug 22 we have the Democratic convention. Biden should get a bit of a convention bump and possibly take the lead or at least turn things into more of a tossup. Then, the second debate Sept. 10. Biden fails to visibly shit himself and stroke out on stage, and the media and democratic viewers get back on the same page with the party and call that a Biden win and incredible recovery. Biden takes the lead, but this is the last major campaign event so things tighten back up into a tossup by election day, anybody's ball game.

It all depends who the undecideds break for, but I have no fucking idea how to answer that question. Who the hell doesn't have enough information about these two to decide already? I can only imagine an undecided being so digusted by both that they don't want to pick, maybe leading to lower than expected turnout. As far as turnout in general, I think Trump will have a more energized base of voters so that could help him, but Democrats have "fortifications" to counter so who knows? Another wildcard is the Trump legal stuff. As far as my intuition goes, I think whether they jail him or he gets everything cleared up for now, it helps Trump either way. But like I said, I can't fathom the mind of an undecided voter.

Another scenario is dems continue to be huge babies throwing a tantrum about being stuck with Biden, he gets no convention bump, and then he also does visibly shit himself and stroke out on stage at the debate. Then, Trump takes it by a big margin.

Am I missing anything?
 
How the hell have the GOPe not found a way to fuck things up and take all the attention off Biden? Right about now is when Lindsey Graham or someone similar should be somehow turning this thing into a losing situation.
He's busy pretending the conspicuous amount of hot dogs he ate today was a totally heterosexual act
Also even he, Yertle the Turtle, and Johnson see this is a way to win without doing anything and are mostly hammering the Democrat civil war over Biden's health at all opportunities.
 
How the hell have the GOPe not found a way to fuck things up and take all the attention off Biden? Right about now is when Lindsey Graham or someone similar should be somehow turning this thing into a losing situation.
The "stay quiet your stupid fucks" memo must have gone out. The democrat situation right now is basically a dream scenario for easy opposition.
 
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