US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[George Lucas]

Kinda hard for Caesar not to be a heathen when he was assasinated decades before the birth of Christ.

Yeah, canonically everyone who wasn’t a Hebrew at that time is in hell now. Sneed.

 

[X Prime]

…because people are largely fine with moral crusading if it’s their side doing it? And now that exact same moral crusading is turning today’s young people against them? Being hypocritical and inconsistent is literally basic human nature, dunno why you’re expecting people to be rational and internally consistent with their beliefs.

It's because you failed to grasp the point I was making.

The supposed moral crusaders you were ranting about back then didn't have any power. The closest anyone came to having it is when it was Democrats such as Joe Lieberman, Tipper Gore, and Hillary Clinton doing it, yet the right-wing Christians are the ones who apparently got blamed.

You're just saying that successful propaganda was successful.

 

[STARS158]

very retarded

Israel bombed Yemen because the Houthis attempted to use a suicide drone to strike the US embassy in Tel Aviv but missed, killing an Israeli. It's tit for tat. The US has never suspended an election due to a war, not even the civil war or ww2. Why would they suspend one now?

Hey it worked for Ukraine.

 

[The Last Stand]

You mean the astroturfed whining about something that really didn't have an effect on most people.

It's worth noting that if it was actually a backlash against that, why do those same morons lean Dem, who by and large are the ones who did most of the big-name moral crusading?

It's bullshit. The kids are just being propagandized.

You're confusing political affliction with moral grandstanding. Generally speaking, Democrats from twenty, thirty years ago are different from how Democrats conduct themselves NOW. Take Matt Groening from The Simpsons as an example. The social dynamic THEN allowed liberalism to be "rebellious" in nature through entertainment and social perception. I can't say for certain WHEN/HOW that Overton Window stretched thin on either direction, but it's argued that 2012-2016 caused that dichotomy to be redefined.

 

[X Prime]

You're confusing political affliction with moral grandstanding. Generally speaking, Democrats from twenty, thirty years ago are different from how Democrats conduct themselves NOW. Take Matt Groening from The Simpsons as an example. The social dynamic THEN allowed liberalism to be "rebellious" in nature through entertainment and social perception. I can't say for certain WHEN/HOW that Overton Window stretched thin on either direction, but it's argued that 2012-2016 caused that dichotomy to be redefined.

So close, yet so far.

Matt Groening wasn't actually rebellious. Neither was, say, Rage Against the Machine. Once you understand that they weren't actually rebels and were enabled for the purpose of making money and exerting cultural influence, then perhaps you'll understand why things turned out the way they did and why so many supposed "rebels" seem an awful lot like establishment hacks now.

 

[The Ugly One]

As someone who thinks as many abortions as possible should be prevented, I also understand that my relative who had an ectopic pregnancy and found out late would have died without one.

Nobody is proposing forcing mothers with ectopic pregnancies to die. What we have is what leftists openly believe in, which is being able to jam scissors in a live baby's skull and vacuum its brains out and leaving live babies in a closet to die, and a boogeyman of the left's creation that exists only in their imagination, forcing 12-year-old rape victims with ectopic pregnancy to carry the fetus until it kills them.

 

[Forest Portal Triumph 747]

@MasterMiller I'm going to go through the 13 Keys myself

Key 1 (party mandate) is turned true if the incumbent party has achieved a net gain of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the term's midterm elections compared to the previous midterm elections. For example, Lichtman refers to the 1982 U.S. House elections in the middle of Ronald Reagan's first term when the Republicans lost 27 seats: as the Republicans had gained 35 seats in 1980, this left them with a net gain of eight seats, turning the key true.

[[Ok, so the Republicans had a net gain of 22 seats in the House compared to 2018, which means that this key counts AGAINST chomo joe]]

Key 2 (no primary contest) is turned true if the incumbent party nominee wins at least two-thirds of the total delegate vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention with no deep and vocal party divisions. Lichtman says the incumbent party's ability to unite behind a consensus nominee is reflective of successful governance, whereas a contested nomination is indicative of internal party strife caused by weak governance.

[[Ok, so this key technically was going to count for chomo joe...but now it counts AGAINST him because many Democrats changed their mind as to whether or not he should remain the nominee after that disastrous debate performance, and after many prominent Democrat figures said chomo joe should step down as the nominee.]]


Key 3 (incumbent seeking re-election) Lichtman says an incumbent president seeking re-election has several advantages, such as the ability to set the national agenda, and often attracts far more media attention than a non-incumbent. The president can also benefit from the rally 'round the flag effect in times of crisis.

Lichtman also says that presidents running for re-election rarely face the strongest candidates from the challenging party, who typically refrain from running unless the president is seen as very vulnerable.

[[Ok, here's the major problem with Lichtman's usage of incumbency as an advantage. Incumbency is only an advantage when things are going well, but it is a DISADVANTAGE when things are going poorly. Aside from infrastructure, chomo joe's national agenda is massively unpopular, and chomo joe is being blamed for the economic woes of many millions of Americans. Incumbency is therefore a disadvantage in this case, and while chomo joe technically is an incumbent seeking re-election, this key ought to count AGAINST him because of his abysmal approval ratings]]

Key 4 (no third party) is turned false when there is a major candidate other than the nominees of the Democrats and the Republicans.

[[RFK Jr ought to make this key count against chomo joe. Also, Jill Stein may get even more attention before November as the prime "no genocide in Gaza" candidate. Lichtman is oblivious if he thinks 3rd party candidates will be negligible this cycle.]]

Key 5 (strong short-term economy) is turned false when the economy is, or is widely perceived to be, in recession during the election campaign.

Lichtman cites the early 1990s recession as an example: the recession had ended in March 1991, but a Gallup poll in September 1992 found that 79% of respondents believed the economy was still in recession, turning the key false for George H. W. Bush.

[[ok, so this definitely should count against chomo joe. Even if you assume that the technical indicators of a recession aren't here right now-- if you poll Americans, most of them will say this economy is in recession because of how badly they're chafing with prices, lack of employment with jobs they actually want as opposed to low paying jobs they take upon themselves to pay their ever rising bills.

Key 6 (strong long-term economy) is turned true when the real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms: Lichtman states that slow economic growth is indicative of an administration's lack of strength.

[[the problem with this key is that the growth is middling compared to what it could be, the stats are being exaggerated to benefit chomo joe (look at all the downward revisions after every jobs report) and much of that growth is either going to illegals or the public sector or the tech sector; this barely helps chomo joe, and there has been long-term economic suffering because Americans have had a hard time with price increases since 2021]]

Key 7 (major policy change) is turned true if the incumbent administration redirects the course of government or enacts a major policy change that has broad effects on the country's commerce, welfare or outlook: it does not matter whether the change is popular with the public, nor does it matter what ideological mold it was cast from. Abraham Lincoln abolishing slavery, Franklin D. Roosevelt enacting the New Deal, and Barack Obama enacting the Affordable Care Act were policy changes that turned the key true.

[[this key is dumb in and of itself because Lichtman mentions it does not matter whether the change is popular with the public; Obama succeeded in 2012 against Romney in spite of the ACA, not because of it. Anyway, I cannot think of a major policy change that has "broad effects on the country's commerce, welfare or outlook" other than letting massive numbers of illegals in and encouraging DEI everywhere; this key should count against chomo joe]]

Key 8 (no social unrest) is turned false when there is widespread violent unrest that is sustained or leaves critical issues unresolved by the time of the election campaign, which makes the voters call into serious question the stability of the country.

[[conservatives don't engage in widespread violent unrest no matter what happens so this key is hard to turn against chomo joe, but a very large portion of the country rightly views chomo joe as illegitimate, which should count as major unrest in and of itself; and then you have the fact that beyond those who view chomo joe as illegitimate, you also have many millions of people so upset at chomo joe because of the economy and immigration that they wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire -- hell, the issues at the border should count as widespread social unrest; and then you have the "muh free palestine" protestors; and then you have the rising crime rates because many younger Americans don't have much else to do with mediocre wages and rising prices and housing costs]]

Key 9 (no scandal) is turned false when there is bipartisan recognition of serious impropriety that is directly linked to the president, such as widespread corruption in the Cabinet and/or officials of an incumbent administration or presidential misconduct resulting in a bipartisan impeachment. By contrast, the voting public ignores allegations of wrongdoing that appear to be the product of partisan politicking or are not directly linked to the president: for example, the impeachment of Andrew Johnson in 1868 and the Iran-Contra affair during Ronald Reagan's second term did not turn the key false.

[[yeah, this definitely should count against chomo joe because of the obvious senility that the vast majority of Americans recognize]]

Key 10 (no foreign or military failure) is turned false when a failure occurs that is perceived to undermine the standing of the United States and/or erode trust in the president's leadership. Lichtman cites the attack on Pearl Harbor, the botched Bay of Pigs invasion, North Vietnamese victory in the Vietnam War, and the Iranian hostage crisis as failures that turned the key false. By contrast, failed diplomatic initiatives, such as Dwight D. Eisenhower's failure to negotiate a nuclear test ban treaty with the Soviet Union, will not turn the key false.


[[from what I heard, Lichtman apparently claims that the botched Afghanistan withdrawal doesn't count. LOL. Bullshit. This key definitely counts AGAINST chomo joe]]

Key 11 (major foreign or military success) is turned true when an achievement is seen as improving the prestige and interests of the United States. Lichtman cites the formation of NATO under Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower negotiating an armistice to the Korean War, John F. Kennedy's handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the killing of Osama bin Laden under Barack Obama as successes that turned the key true.[13]

[[yeah, no, funding Ukraine doesn't count. "Rebuilding NATO" as chomo joe brags doesn't count. Mayyyybe if Prigozhin's coup went all the way through, but Americans don't care as much about Russia as they did in the latter half of the 20th century]]


Key 12 (charismatic incumbent) is turned true if the incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero, while key 13 (uncharismatic challenger) is turned false if the challenging party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Key 13 is the only key that pertains to the challenging party.

[[Key 12 counts against chomo joe for sure; he was charismatic back in the day -- he would've gotten away with feeling up women in public in his late teens, 20s, 30s, even his 40s, but his mind has gone since then]]

[[Key 13 also should count against chomo joe; yes, Trump is polarizing, but is also charismatic in his own way]]

in a nutshell....

Key 1: AGAINST
Key 2: (Dem convention hasn't happened yet...but we already know enough to say that even if chomo joe remains the nominee, this should count as...) AGAINST
Key 3: Technically FOR, but the caveats make it a negative rather than a positive
Key 4: AGAINST
Key 5 and Key 6: Technically FOR, but the caveats make it a negative rather than a positive
Key 7: AGAINST
Key 8: AGAINST
Key 9: AGAINST
Key 10 and Key 11: AGAINST
Key 12 and Key 13: AGAINST

seriously, literally every single key is either AGAINST chomo joe, or when the definition technically counts FOR chomo joe there are enough caveats to make it arguably a net-negative; worst case scenario for chomo joe, the keys-with-caveats makes literally ALL 13 issues pertaining to the keys count against chomo joe;


And even with Lichtman's technical definitions, the Party Mandate Key and the No 3rd Party Key and the No Social Unrest Key and the No Scandal Key and the No Foreign Policy Failure Key and the Foreign Policy Success Key and the Incumbent Charisma Key all should count AGAINST chomo joe (that's 7 keys AGAINST; let's assume you don't count the No Social Unrest Key -- that's still 6 keys AGAINST, which is enough for a chomo joe loss)

The reason Lichtman still argues for chomo joe winning is because he stretches the truth to make the subjective keys fit for chomo joe, and that he ignores the caveats with the keys that technically do fit. He literally argued that Afghanistan doesn't count. If I recall correctly, he believes that RFK Jr doesn't count. He may try to argue that chomo joe has implemented Major Policy Change because of something like infrastructure, and that there is "no social unrest" because there are no riots all over, and that there is "no scandal" because there is nothing like Watergate in the media against chomo joe even though the "step down because senility" issue ought to count as a scandal

 

[Dr J]

The supposed moral crusaders you were ranting about back then didn't have any power.

Eh, I wouldn't say that.

You'll never see a show like NYPD Blue on mainstream network television ever again because of the Parents' Television Council. Those nuts caused so much trouble that it really made the whole venture not worth it.

The reason Lichtman still argues for chomo joe winning is because he stretches the truth to make the subjective keys fit for chomo joe, and that he ignores the caveats with the keys that technically do fit. He literally argued that Afghanistan doesn't count. If I recall correctly, he believes that RFK Jr doesn't count. He may try to argue that chomo joe has implemented Major Policy Change because of something like infrastructure, and that there is "no social unrest" because there are no riots all over, and that there is "no scandal" because there is nothing like Watergate in the media against chomo joe even though the "step down because senility" issue ought to count as a scandal

Lichtman is a TDS inflicted fucktard and this is exactly why the 13 keys are a terrible metric for gauging electoral success - because they're subjective. I personally can't see Biden with more than two or three keys but somehow Lichtman sees Biden with enough keys to win the election

 

[George Lucas]

@MasterMiller I'm going to go through the 13 Keys myself

Nigger it’s Saturday night log off and go get laid

 

[The Last Stand]

Matt Groening wasn't actually rebellious.

How many shows can you name around the time of The Simpsons' infamy that dared to tackle biting social commentary through the lens of an middle-class American family?

Hell, one episode took a direct shot against George HW Bush's assertion that American families "should be more like the Watsons than the Simpsons." Bart Simpson himself is a caricature of the overzealous, "bad boy" child that acts out for attention. Many parents did not like how popular Bart was to children, which they completed missed the intention of Bart's character.

It's not like Republicans would make a stink of a cartoon without compromising their belief of "freedom of speech." Even so, they may not have been the intended audience. Not because The Simpsons was firstly political, rather its subject matter and taste would had not been for everybody.

 

[Forest Portal Triumph 747]

Nigger it’s Saturday night log off and go get laid

I'm going for 365 Days+ of NoFap, NoPorn, No Lusting for ANY women (in public, on TV shows and Movies) and also No Wet Dreams via regular lucid dreaming, sleeping in certain poses, not eating spicy food too close to bedtime. Full on physical and mental chastity for spiritual gains.

I have ignored requests from girls I know to meet up. I have deliberately looked away when I stumble upon an attractive woman on any screen anywhere.

 

[Catboy Ranch]

Okay, so people are dancing around it, and I have to ask: what *was* the reason the US had to go in as hard and as fast as possible without informing the UK ahead of time?

Around that time, I know much of the political establishment of the USSR was muddled and paranoid as geriatric premiers kept dying as soon as they were installed.

Did Maurice Bishop and the NDM have an agreement to secretly base nukes in Grenada or were they going to serve as an advance base for other insurrections in the Caribbean and Latin America? What could tiny Grenada do that Cuba couldn't do ten times better for the Soviets in the Western Hemisphere?

No one will ever produce a clear answer what the rush to get into Grenada actually was. The WH put out a series of case bullet points and leaned into the invitation of the governor to intervene and the airport runway. Finding the kalishes and the huge ammo horde was a bonus that justified it later. But it's not like a pressure campaign wouldn't have worked.

There was no security agreement between the commie junta on the island and the Soviets. That would have certainly raised tensions dramatically. There were two Soviet advisors on the island with the Cuban meddlers.

Some say it just simply presented Weinberger with a mini Domino Theory in the Caribbean, the CIA buttressed it with memoranda, Reagan was sold, and when the invitation arrived asking for intervention, they went before any more hardware could show up.


If the documents the CIA sent to the WH ever see the light of day, assuming they weren't shredded, maybe we'll learn the real reason.

 

[Jade Philosophies]

This is correct, if poorly worded. @Gar For Archer is spouting propaganda because he does not know any better.

To wit, check what party Jack Thompson currently subscribes to.

Never mind Jack Thompson, what about Tipper Gore?!
Edit: And of course Joe Lieberman.

 

[X Prime]

Eh, I wouldn't say that.

You'll never see a show like NYPD Blue on mainstream network television ever again because of the Parents' Television Council. Those nuts caused so much trouble that it really made the whole venture not worth it.

My compliments on not trying to bring up the Dixie Chicks as a counter, that one is heavily overstated. But it's worth noting that most people don't seem to mention your example for some reason.

Hell, one episode took a direct shot against George HW Bush's

Left-wing media? Talking shit about a Republican? Oh that's a real stunner.

Hint: they mainly went after safe targets like that or went after unsafe targets with kid gloves for a reason.

 

[NevskyProspekt]

This is true but it is entirely a problem of their own making. They’ve got nobody but themselves to blame for the rise of Reddit atheism, which was a direct backlash against overbearing Christian moral policing. SJWism too, but less directly so. Frankly, the messaging at the time of “do X or you’ll go to Hell as a sinner” is a terrible way to sell your God to skeptical young people who are biologically hard-wired to be rebellious. Hellfire and brimstone is great for keeping the hardcore believers in line but it’s a hard sell for potential converts.

For me the best pitch for Christianity is not 'do X or you'll go to Hell', it's 'believe in/do X and you will come out of the Hell you are already living in." Hell is here. It is now. I want to follow Christ because I love Christ, not because I'm afraid of going to Hell (and I mean that without discounting the very real possibility of damnation for each and every one of us). It's what bothers me when some people argue against some form of universal salvation (which I myself am merely hopeful for as a remote possibility, on the basis of scriptural passages including 1 Tim. 2:3-6 and 2 Peter 3:9, as well as some of the great saints including St. Isaac of Nineveh, Julian of Norwich and St. Gregory of Nyssa - I simply cannot assert it as certainty because we just don't know) on the grounds that if everybody in the end, somehow goes to Heaven (probably after a looooooong time in Purgatory) then there's no reason to strive for the good because there is no fear of Hell. To me that says they do good out of fearing Hell rather than any actual desire for the good, or more than they love Christ (or they pridefully assume they'll be one of the saved) which really isn't a healthy way of being a Christian. One of my favorite quotes on the matter comes from the great St. Silhouan of Mount Athos - "Keep your mind in Hell and despair not." That's all we can do. Follow Christ with fear/awe and trembling and pray for all to be reconciled.

 

[Dr J]

But it's worth noting that most people don't seem to mention your example for some reason.

My guess is most people don't seem to remember NYPD Blue. Homicide: Life on the Street was more critically acclaimed, and came first (NYPD Blue was more popular, though). And most of the stuff NYPD Blue did that was groundbreaking (the sex, the nudity, the swearing) is just stuff that you can find on pretty much any cable show now. It was so shocking and controversial because it was on network television.

 

[Local Farmer]

View attachment 6214185

If this was Trump on twitter he would be saying something like:

“The GOOD Judge, Robert Pegg, who is as smart and handsome as me, told the Lyin Pulitzer Board that there fake news won’t be had here!

Are you tired of the winning yet folks?”

Trump getting banned from twitter was the worst mistake in the history of Humanity

 

[George Lucas]

I'm going for 365 Days+ of NoFap, NoPorn, No Lusting for ANY women (in public, on TV shows and Movies) and also No Wet Dreams via regular lucid dreaming, sleeping in certain poses, not eating spicy food too close to bedtime. Full on physical and mental chastity for spiritual gains.

I have ignored requests from girls I know to meet up. I have deliberately looked away when I stumble upon an attractive woman on any screen anywhere.

What is your purpose for doing this?

 

[OrangeJuliusEvola]

No one will ever produce a clear answer what the rush to get into Grenada actually was. The WH put out a series of case bullet points and leaned into the invitation of the governor to intervene and the airport runway. Finding the kalishes and the huge ammo horde was a bonus that justified it later. But it's not like a pressure campaign wouldn't have worked.

There was no security agreement between the commie junta on the island and the Soviets. That would have certainly raised tensions dramatically. There were two Soviet advisors on the island with the Cuban meddlers.

Some say it just simply presented Weinberger with a mini Domino Theory in the Caribbean, the CIA buttressed it with memoranda, Reagan was sold, and when the invitation arrived asking for intervention, they went before any more hardware could show up.


If the documents the CIA sent to the WH ever see the light of day, assuming they weren't shredded, maybe we'll learn the real reason.

@Jet Fuel Johnny seems to be hinting at some sort of inside baseball knowledge for the rapid and hard intervention. I'm curious as to what it is. I understand it's probably military scuttlebutt rather than actual classified info, but I'd still like to know.

 

[Dr J]

Trump getting banned from twitter was the worst mistake in the history of Humanity

Depends on your perspective. If Dorsey and them hadn't banned him and showed the world they've gone full tyrant, Elon might not have bought it