And what are the odds of that happening?
Higher than a lot of people in A&H realize.
This is a base election. It’s all about turning out your party’s most reliable voters and, ideally, gaining some new ones. Part of the reason why Trump ”won” in 2016 (based on the technicality, not the popular vote) was that he was able to turn out a new population of voters, mainly rural white voters, who were cynical about politics but were willing to be registered and vote for him. That was one of the reasons why the polling was so skewed: traditional polling data relies on registered, consistent voters. But the gains made in that rural white vote in 2016 haven’t stuck around. The same thing happened to Obama in 2008: the enthusiasm resulted in a lot of new voters, especially among Black and other minority voters, but they didn’t stick around for midterms. Therefore, the Democratic party lost both the House and Senate in 2010 and Obama’s hands were tied.
So what do we have now? Trump underperformed in the primaries by around 20 to 30 percent, which was the Nikki Haley vote. Some of that vote will return to him, but some of it won’t. Some of it will go to Harris, some of it will go third party (mostly RFK), and some won’t vote at all. There are longtime Republican voters who absolutely refuse to vote for Trump. He is not winning them back, especially now. The majority of normal people saw what went on at the RNC and saw the behavior of a cult. (I make an effort to learn not just from liberals, but from conservatives, and this is what they are saying.)
In a close election, five points or less, this can be the difference between winning a state or not. Look at Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Now, a lot of people have moved around the country post-covid and this may change some things; there may be some surprises along the way. But part of the reason why the DNC chased Biden off the ticket is because he was costing them votes. The base wasn’t excited and they weren’t getting many new voters, and that means low turnout for the Democratic side. It does NOT mean those voters were moving to Trump, though; it just indicates apathy. Harris gets those voters back because she’s significantly younger, female, Black, and approachable. She’s bigger than Hillary ever was. She might be another Obama, as crazy as that sounds; I have not seen this much energy around a Democratic candidate since 2008.