Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[mindlessobserver]

It's amazing how I ask in the pro Ukraine thread and I get a concise answer and tactical breakdown of the battlefield as to why it's so hard for Russia to advance.

In the Russian thread I just get told this canal is too big for Russia to pass but that the Ukrainian frontline is collapsing.

It is being inexorably pushed back, but that inexorability is measured in meters per day rather then kilometers. The Russia Thread is correct that the situation for Ukraine is not ideal, but its not been ideal since this war began. Even the USA assumed Ukraine would fall within weeks if Russia invaded.

If you are curious for a very unbiased breakdown of just how badly Russia (and the world) underestimated the Ukrainian Military as well as the overall limitations it still faces, this documentary of the Feb-March 2022 Battle of Kiev is very good.

 

[BlackDragoons]

Even the USA assumed Ukraine would fall within weeks if Russia invaded.

I think that was the general census when the fighting started to break out.

By day 3 Kiev was quiet and you knew Russia fucked up somewhere.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

We currently live in the Ace Combat universe, actually.

Source: https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823084244757049398

Who the AFU really needs isn't the F-16 pilots but the guys on the ground who can maintain and repair the F-16s.

 

[Ghostse]

It's amazing how I ask in the pro Ukraine thread and I get a concise answer and tactical breakdown of the battlefield as to why it's so hard for Russia to advance.

In the Russian thread I just get told this canal is too big for Russia to pass but that the Ukrainian frontline is collapsing.

And that is why the threads split.

Regarding the Ukrainian front, they are being slowly pushed back no one who isn't a red faced copelord is disputing that. But remember: Russia is 5x Ukraine's size, and claimed to be able to defeat NATO easily. So the fact there IS a front after nearly three years shows just how completely fucking garbage Russia's military is and incompetent their leadership.

 

[mindlessobserver]

The first official public recognition of the fact that the Russian Federation lost territories during the Kursk operation.​

link
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link subtitles

Breaking out into western media. The fact that even Putin realizes he can't lie about how grim the situation in Kursk is, well enlightening.

Over 1,000 Square Kilometers are pretty much confirmed now and the UAF is moving deeper into Russia.

This is now the thread theme song. Its just too apt. This is the highwater mark of the Ukrainian War effort.

Like the CSA, 2 and a half years into the war they have shoved for all the marbles while holding a losing hand and is forcing their enemy into an all or nothing battle on their soil. This is legitimately it. If Russia wins the 2024 "Battle of Kursk" and smashes the forces Ukraine has sent in, Ukraine will have nothing left for it but a slow and grinding defeat. If Ukraine wins though, Putin will have to answer for the being the first Russian leader since World War 2 to have his armies routed while defending Mother Russia against an invading nation. I opined when this started that the Russo-Ukrainian War was in many respects the long delayed Soviet Civil War that never fully materialized in the breakup of the USSR. The parallels are uncanny.

 

[The Morning Visitor]

It's amazing how I ask in the pro Ukraine thread and I get a concise answer and tactical breakdown of the battlefield as to why it's so hard for Russia to advance.

In the Russian thread I just get told this canal is too big for Russia to pass but that the Ukrainian frontline is collapsing.

It's very telling. From my observation, Russia fanboys usually fall into two camps:

1. Vatniks that live in Russia and guzzle the Kremlin's Flavor-Aid on Channel 1 state news. They'll often concede that post-Soviet propaganda is intentionally confusing/overwhelming and turn to military bloggers as though they're not also on the Kremlin's payroll.
2. Conservative westerners that either get a thrill from being "anti-woke" contrarians (and associate Ukraine as "woke" because they're the protagonists in the American adaptation of this story) or conservative westerners that long for the return to the days when Might Makes Right under a strongman warlord daddy.

There's also unironic tankies that support Russia due to their association with the Soviet Union, but everyone knows tankies are retarded. Most of what you'll see from Russia supporters is either cope or an analysis of pure military strength, neither strategy nor diplomacy. Post-antiquity, Russia has always outnumbered their western contemporaries and just throws men into the meat grinder to brute force a problem.

 

[Snekposter]

Does the Russian army have zero bridge laying equipment?

They had a fair bit at the start, but... yeah, it got blown up as a priority target, along with the engineers who know how to use it.

Joke, it's not Kursk. It is American bioweapons though.

At least they're not a Canadian bioweapon...

Of course they have thought of that. Scorched Earth is and always has been one of the main crutches of Russian military doctorine. They suck ass on a tactical scale, so they know they can always rely on retreating to Muscovy, destroying all supplies/infrastructure on the way back and letting the attacker die from the elements.

Part of that is the fact there's fucking nothing between Moscow and the borders of any real value.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

For those wondering about the state of Russian civilian aviation:

---

And drone warfare:

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

It's very telling. From my observation, Russia fanboys usually fall into two camps:

1. Vatniks that live in Russia and guzzle the Kremlin's Flavor-Aid on Channel 1 state news. They'll often concede that post-Soviet propaganda is intentionally confusing/overwhelming and turn to military bloggers as though they're not also on the Kremlin's payroll.
2. Conservative westerners that either get a thrill from being "anti-woke" contrarians (and associate Ukraine as "woke" because they're the protagonists in the American adaptation of this story) or conservative westerners that long for the return to the days when Might Makes Right under a strongman warlord daddy.

There's also unironic tankies that support Russia due to their association with the Soviet Union, but everyone knows tankies are retarded. Most of what you'll see from Russia supporters is either cope or an analysis of pure military strength, neither strategy nor diplomacy. Post-antiquity, Russia has always outnumbered their western contemporaries and just throws men into the meat grinder to brute force a problem.

Don't forget the Turd Worlders/Globul Souf'ers cheering for Russia because blowing up Ukrainian school children totally pwns the Great Satan

 

[Prester John]

I'm just glad that the Spring Counteroffensive finally happened.

 

[3-2-1836]

It's very telling. From my observation, Russia fanboys usually fall into two camps:

1. Vatniks that live in Russia and guzzle the Kremlin's Flavor-Aid on Channel 1 state news. They'll often concede that post-Soviet propaganda is intentionally confusing/overwhelming and turn to military bloggers as though they're not also on the Kremlin's payroll.
2. Conservative westerners that either get a thrill from being "anti-woke" contrarians (and associate Ukraine as "woke" because they're the protagonists in the American adaptation of this story) or conservative westerners that long for the return to the days when Might Makes Right under a strongman warlord daddy.

There's also unironic tankies that support Russia due to their association with the Soviet Union, but everyone knows tankies are retarded. Most of what you'll see from Russia supporters is either cope or an analysis of pure military strength, neither strategy nor diplomacy. Post-antiquity, Russia has always outnumbered their western contemporaries and just throws men into the meat grinder to brute force a problem.

This was the response I got saying who gives a fuck Russia did the same during Crimea '14 to people claiming the Ukrainian forces invading Russia now are actually NATO soldiers in Ukrainian Uniforms

They actually were local volunteers you stupid shit head. How brainwashed are you by western nato faggot ops that you cannot see it? GOD maybe follow Intel Slava for the truth on what’s happening in Ukraine instead of lies stupid tranny shill

Mind you Putin openly admitted they were Russian army on national TV 2 months after Crimea was reunified with Russia.

https://ria.ru/20140516/1007988002.html

Apparently RIA Novosti is controlled by the West and NATO

 

[mindlessobserver]

This was the response I got saying who gives a fuck Russia did the same during Crimea '14 to people claiming the Ukrainian forces invading Russia now are actually NATO soldiers in Ukrainian Uniforms

The Ukrainian Army of 2014 is not the one that the Russians ran into 2022. For whatever reason, Putin gave Ukraine 8 years to think about what happened with the Crimea annexation. They did not spend that time idle.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

This was the response I got saying who gives a fuck Russia did the same during Crimea '14 to people claiming the Ukrainian forces invading Russia now are actually NATO soldiers in Ukrainian Uniforms

Mind you Putin openly admitted they were Russian army on national TV 2 months after Crimea was reunified with Russia.

https://ria.ru/20140516/1007988002.html

Apparently RIA Novosti is controlled by the West and NATO

I often point to Crimea as the first act of aggression that kicked off the whole thing. I remember arguing with a relative and using this as an example of their beloved government lying to them. "It wasn't us *wink*" and "We were never there" regarding Donbas debacle that followed.
I got them to admit regarding "green little men", and a suspicious amount of FSB officers suddenly "retiring" and "volunteering" to Donbas, along with Russian weapons and equipment somehow ending up in the hands of separatists. That's about as much progress as I managed to make, their brain turned off after that and went into defense mode, "it's nawt truuu" kinda deal, repeating propaganda talking points.

I learned for myself then that it's indeed easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. I plainly showed that Putin started this mess, and their eyes just glazed over.

 

[Hermann von Salsa]

Watching DW.

They are saying its up to around 5 Ukrainian Brigades at this point. So this is most definitely not a raid or incursion. Its developing into a full on invasion. The question now is, is that true and is Russia sending enough forces to the area to deal with it. These are looking to be Ukraines pipe hitters, as far as the units involved go. Trying to send some lightly armed 18 year old conscripts on their 2 year national service up against them would be like leading lambs to slaughter.

Ukrainians can't escape amerifacation, you vill eat ze hamburger you vill be fat and happy.

 

[Ghostse]

Who the AFU really needs isn't the F-16 pilots but the guys on the ground who can maintain and repair the F-16s.

They need both, really. The F-16 is an excellent 'wild weasel' aircraft due to performance and maneuverability, but you need skilled pilots to do it. And if you don't have skilled pilots... you get the IDF losing an F-16 to an SA-2.

They also need permission to start hitting Russian airbases inside Russia with their equipment.

Most of what you'll see from Russia supporters is either cope or an analysis of pure military strength

Its mostly cope, but the other thing is they love quoting Russian paper statistics for Russian weapons & vehicles, while going to any turd worlder pedoworshipper's gripe about NATO hardware. Despite the fact for like 70 years there has been one consistent fact of war:
NATO equipment underpromises and over-delivers, and WARPACT Soviet shit screams abotu how great and mighty it is and often never delivers.

"We have more guys than you have bullets" doesn't work when the other guy actually has more bullets than you have men.

This was the response I got saying who gives a fuck Russia did the same during Crimea '14 to people claiming the Ukrainian forces invading Russia now are actually NATO soldiers in Ukrainian Uniforms

Mind you Putin openly admitted they were Russian army on national TV 2 months after Crimea was reunified with Russia.

https://ria.ru/20140516/1007988002.html

Apparently RIA Novosti is controlled by the West and NATO

Your first mistake was expecting logic and consistency of argument from Vatniggers.

The Vatnik thread here unironically posts Russian MOD releases and discusses them like they have a bearing on reality, these same releases that claim to have destroyed five or six times the number of tanks and IFVs as Ukraine ever had.
Vs. this thread where we don't bother posting Ukrainian MOD releases except to laugh at them because we understand it'll also be full of slavic lies.

You'll also see them shitting on the F-16 as only being good at blowing up schools and hospitals, completely ignoring that Russia blew up a children's hospital with one of their feared and totally accurate cruise missiles.

This put them in the awkward position of either saying Russian cruisemissiles are the best in the world (which would mean they deliberately targeted a children's hospital) or that they were trying to hit someothing of military value, the closest legitimate military target being over 1km (which would mean their missiles suck and can't hit more accurately than 1km from the target). They also tried to cope by saying that some Ukrainian officer was getting treatment there - which even if true, as an unarmed medical facility, that would be a violation of the Geneva Convention.

So forget trying to get logical consistency from them, they can't even decide which warcrime Russia is committing.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Ukrainians can't escape amerifacation, you vill eat ze hamburger you vill be fat and happy.

Belgorod border regions being evacuated in response to UAF probing attacks along the front line.

Russia is calling the situation along their border with Ukraine a "State of Emergency", as if this is somehow a natural disaster. A force of nature. And not a consequence of the Kremlins actions.

I am reminded of a post I made 3 months ago.

I think the current Kharkiv campaign is going to change this calculation. For good or ill. The simple truth is that in 2022 Kharkiv Counter Offensive there was nothing standing in the way of the Ukrainian Army and Belgorod but an absolutely shattered Russian column in complete route with no fuel and ammunition. That and an arbitrary international border with the implicit threat of nukes, world war 3, and all that jazz. Without all the Great Power Machinations, this current fight would be less about Russia trying to slice off more of Ukraine, and more about them trying to retake Russian Territory they lost.

The restraint shown in 2022 was based solely on the assumption that Russia could still be brought to terms. Now it seems that Putin cannot negotiate in any way that is not him being the total victor of the conflict. Which means the Russian Border can longer be limitation on Ukrainian military interaction with the Russian Army. They are clearly using it as some impervious shield to prepare further invasions into Ukrainian territory. Ukraine must be permitted to carry the war into Russia itself as consequence.

Monday night news on the US networks. The Russian Tricolor being thrown on the dirt and trampled with the blue and gold being hoisted onto Russian soil.

 

[Exterminatus]

View attachment 6294167

Every time I see these green texts of the war from a Mexico/America pov it makes me laugh. These assholes were supposed our peer power, along with China. They still can't take fucking Ukraine. I was watching a streamer play the old Modern Warfare games the other day and it's wild that we genuinely believed the Russians were capable of even half the shit they did in those games.

The first official public recognition of the fact that the Russian Federation lost territories during the Kursk operation.​

link
View attachment 6301134
link subtitles

He looks so pissed there when the Kursk governor reads out the stats about the size of Ukraine's attack.

It's amazing how I ask in the pro Ukraine thread and I get a concise answer and tactical breakdown of the battlefield as to why it's so hard for Russia to advance.

In the Russian thread I just get told this canal is too big for Russia to pass but that the Ukrainian frontline is collapsing.

This thread tends to have more realism, it's not full doomer but it's also not full SLAVA UKRAINE UPDOOTS TO THE LEFT. I think it has fairer analysis of both Russian and Ukrainian capabilities, and the western aid Ukraine continues getting.

The Ukrainian Army of 2014 is not the one that the Russians ran into 2022. For whatever reason, Putin gave Ukraine 8 years to think about what happened with the Crimea annexation. They did not spend that time idle.

This is just a hunch on my part, but I think Putin intended to invade Ukraine earlier than he did but after Trump won, he was forced to wait because of uncertainty over how he'd respond to Russia bringing war back to Europe. Hillary and Biden didn't really spook him because of his overall familiarity with both, since they spent so long in DC as swamp rats.

 

[WhiteNight]

It's amazing how I ask in the pro Ukraine thread and I get a concise answer and tactical breakdown of the battlefield as to why it's so hard for Russia to advance.

In the Russian thread I just get told this canal is too big for Russia to pass but that the Ukrainian frontline is collapsing.

This is one of the reasons I never even bother to lurk in the zigger thread. Hell, they're probably still gloating about children with cancer being buried under rubble.

I also don't need to lurk because about once a week one of them breaks containment and starts posting their lunacy here.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Does the Russian army have zero bridge laying equipment?

From the start of things going sideways for Russia during the initial invasion, their bridging battalions & engineer brigades suffered heavily while stuck in the convoys of death, more were lost & abandoned during the subsequent retreats, and much of the rest was thrown away in crossing attempts like those in the Battle of Sievierodonetsk. The Ukrainians have long made it a point to blast anything remotely useful for bridging rivers & canals before it could be deployed; on top of that the Russians lost a lot of their equipment along the river when they blew the dam, which was staged & concealed for their dreamed-of retaking of Kherson.

Actually now that I'm thinking about it, it's been a very long time since I've seen any Russian pontoons & bridging/engineering vehicles destroyed, moving, or stored; spotted by drone, satellite, or partisan groups. Atesh in particular is an excellent source for video & images of Russian logistics & depots, with sapper/engineering troops & equipment being especially interesting for them.

Tl:dr- The only way Russia can assault across canals & ditches is to try filling them with corpses & wreckage first. But even that hasn't been working out too well for them lately.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Like the CSA, 2 and a half years into the war they have shoved for all the marbles while holding a losing hand and is forcing their enemy into an all or nothing battle on their soil. This is legitimately it. If Russia wins the 2024 "Battle of Kursk" and smashes the forces Ukraine has sent in, Ukraine will have nothing left for it but a slow and grinding defeat. If Ukraine wins though, Putin will have to answer for the being the first Russian leader since World War 2 to have his armies routed while defending Mother Russia against an invading nation. I opined when this started that the Russo-Ukrainian War was in many respects the long delayed Soviet Civil War that never fully materialized in the breakup of the USSR. The parallels are uncanny.

Though really, this comes back to the question of why Ukraine is pushing hard, what exactly are they hoping to accomplish by holding Kursk? Putin's not going to back down but what is Ukraine's objectives once they get a firm grip in Russian territory? Sweep westward?