Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Dr. Eldon Tyrell]

I have a precise scenario for the nuke escalation, it will never be Washington right away:
Putin will NEVER even bomb Rammstein or something in Poland, even if he really needed to.
But he will use nukes under very cirtical circumstances, if things get more Kursky and they start hitting moscow, just not how you think.
It will go like this:
He will select west Ukrainian farmland well outside a population center and wait for some contingent of NATO mercs, a full on "not-the marines" company with Bradleys and everything because if NATO really goes that far, they WILL have to bolster unkraine and send actual, full combat units under Ukrainian flag. His commanders will then patiently wait until they enter one of the designated low casulty zones and press the button. They will tell us that there were no Americans/French/Canadians/Germans and that only poor Ukrainian Farmers were wiped by the insane Putler but Washington will know, Ukrainians will understand and that might be the end of western support and Ukrainian public's morale. It's the only way because then NATO has no legitimate reason to retaliate further. That or they will go crazy and kill us all but that wouldn't be on Putin.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

I don’t even disagree with you there, you are however defending the person that suggested using nukes. Which mostly reply in turn, thus ending the world. Sorry I don’t think that’s a justified reaction to a proxy conflict.

Well I don't condone violence either, and certainly not the use of nukes. But if I walk up to a gorilla with his mate and offspring to hit him with a baseball bat as well as threaten his family he might not hit me back but if if I persist he's eventually going to kill me if that's the only way to get me to stop. I don't get why this is so difficult for you to understand.

 

[Justsomecicada]

Well I don't condone violence either, and certainly not the use of nukes. But if I walk up to a gorilla with his mate and offspring to hit him with a baseball bat as well as threaten his family he might not hit me back but if if I persist he's eventually going to kill me if that's the only way to get me to stop. I don't get why this is so difficult for you to understand.

I fully understand the reason. What I don’t understand is wanting it to get to that point as it’s mutually assured to end bad for all people.

 

[Susanna]

I fully understand the reason. What I don’t understand is wanting it to get to that point as it’s mutually assured to end bad for all people.

The whole point of playing tit for tat is that you don't let it get to that point!

 

[Justsomecicada]

The whole point of playing tit for tat is that you don't let it get to that point!

if nukes are used we are that point already. Again not arguing against the concept of deterrence. I’ve just seen what you consider deterrence.

 

[Susanna]

if nukes are used we are that point already

I'm saying that if you don't punish the yanks for crossing red lines, using nukes becomes inevitable.

Let me rephrase it. If someone bullies you, you can either run to teacher (the UN I guess?) and cry about how unfair it is, in which case the bullying will intensify, because the teacher (and the UN) won't do anything. Or you can kick your bully in the nuts as hard as you can, in which case he will find an easier target.
Does that make more sense than phrasing it in terms of tit for tat?

 

[Dr. Eldon Tyrell]

I'm saying that if you don't punish the yanks for crossing red lines, using nukes becomes inevitable.

Let me rephrase it. If someone bullies you, you can either run to teacher (the UN I guess?) and cry about how unfair it is, in which case the bullying will intensify, because the teacher (and the UN) won't do anything. Or you can kick your bully in the nuts as hard as you can, in which case he will find an easier target.
Does that make more sense than phrasing it in terms of tit for tat?

But that's not the scenario at all, the U.S. sockpuppets some hyperactive sped who doesn't know left from right. They give the kid lighter fluid, matches and knives and tell him to have at it, the kid will have to bite the dust because you can't defeat the guy who set him up at all, he's that kid's albanian drugdealer uncle, running around with guns and machetes while russia is just a normal schoolkid. Your only hope is to stop the kid and the uncle not really caring about him in the first place, so he won't beat you to death in a fit of rage. The albanian's nephew has the power to stop this but he's a total sped, as you know.
Russia's parents are apathetic Asian tiger parents, they only care about his grades (economic growth) and tell him to man up when he comes to them but the Albanian uncle may also not want to go to jail over this, so he really might not go for revenge if you beat the kid up but hes very impulsive.

 

[Overly Serious]

I mean, there's only one country in the world that has ever actually used nuclear weapons against another nation which is the United States. And they did it twice. In civilian city centres. Against a country they knew was asking to negotiate.

So I guess in terms of PR, Russia is owed a couple.

 

[Sexual Chocolate]

If I were a man

You will never be a man.

Fear. Anger. Frustration. Rage. I don't know how familiar you are with history in that part of the world but when it gets to that point there it can get very brutal.

It bears repeating how lucky we all are that cold, careful Vladimir Putin is the president of Russia, and not some deranged idiot like we have in the West. These are very dangerous times. We are closer to atomic gigadeath than most people understand. Pray for President Putin.

 

[Legato]

Nobody is going to use nukes you dorks.

 

[John Badman]

Nobody is going to use nukes you dorks.

Please understand, they’re coping heavily the last 2 weeks. Rationality is out the window.

 

[borsabil]

I'm saying that if you don't punish the yanks for crossing red lines, using nukes becomes inevitable.

Let me rephrase it. If someone bullies you, you can either run to teacher (the UN I guess?) and cry about how unfair it is, in which case the bullying will intensify, because the teacher (and the UN) won't do anything. Or you can kick your bully in the nuts as hard as you can, in which case he will find an easier target.
Does that make more sense than phrasing it in terms of tit for tat?

Except Russia is winning and will soon achieve all of their strategic aims. a disarmed Ukraine, the Donbas integrated in the Russian Federation, guaranteed access to the black sea and no NATO in Ukraine. I think even the pro Russian side in the west don't comprehend how fucked things are and how close Ukraine is to complete collapse. The last thing Putin wants is an open war with NATO and the US, which is why he continues to ignore the hohol provocations.

 

[All Smiles]

This really is central to how things have unfolded. For all the back and forth here about whether Russia should or should not "retaliate", Putin has imo been subject to one clear mistake: He presumed rational self-interest on the part of Ukraine. Hence things like the initial blitz shock strike at Kiev, hence its continued forbearance about striking infrastructure (well, continued up until @Feline Supremacist 's report above), and so on. All of which fails when your counterpart is not behaving in their own self-interest but that of another's.

not sure why my post was deleted

Something like half a million hohols have been killed in this pointless war, and nobody gives a shit.

 

[Mr Komo]

I'm saying that if you don't punish the yanks for crossing red lines, using nukes becomes inevitable.

Who says that yanks are not being punished? Just because they aren't being directly killed by Russians tit for tat doesn't mean they aren't getting hit in other ways elsewhere, e.g. failure of operation Prosperity Guardian to unjam Red Sea traffic, the ejection of France from Africa and the pressure on Israel, among other things. USA is not the only one who can use proxies to fuck with peers indirectly.

Who needs nukes when your opponent's supposedly undefeatable armada armed with the state of the art F-35s and F-22s gets sent home with a tail between its legs by some guys wearing slippers and using "fell-off-the-truck" missiles that cost a fraction of what the newest grift-a-plane does?

 

[Maginot]

If Iran, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Cuba, Egypt, Libya or really any other US antagonized country get access to Russian export AA or anti ship missiles then the whole balance of power in the region with Israel goes to shit. Loads of ways to escalate indirectly without resorting to nuclear warfare. It would be a mirror of arming Ukraine to the teeth with NATO's ensemble armory.

 

[Betonhaus]

Since linking it twice hasn't seemed to do the trick, I'll screenshot it. NATO now acts based on this perception.
View attachment 6349466
Perception matters because perception determines behavior. Look at the amount of countries standing up to the West before Russia destroyed their perception of invincibility, and how many countries now stand up to the West. If you perceive your enemy as weak, you won't give a shit about red lines because you'll think it's all a bluff.

Red lines must be enforced. Crossing them must be punished immediately and harshly, otherwise you only embolden them to continue until the only reaction you have left is launching nukes. I don’t think anyone in this thread realises just how close NATO boots on Russian ground means we are to catastrophe.

It's a bit more complicated then that. Just because crossing a red line doesn't immediately evoke a retaliation, doesn't mean there won't be one on the way.

Some of the few scenarios I can see:

- Russia already holds such a low opinion of NATO and Ukraine that they have already accounted for them acting as a rabid animal, and sees them crossing lines as unfortunate but expected. They will refuse to acknowledge any of NATO's demands for peace as they are not dealing with intelligent beings but animals that will lash out with no room for negotiation
- Russia wishes to fire nukes at ever of NATO's bases of millitary power, but cannot do so until enough justification has been accumulated.

 

[Derka Derka]

not sure why my post was deleted

Something like half a million hohols have been killed in this pointless war, and nobody gives a shit.

Because they aren't brown

 

[The giant penis of doom]

Something like half a million hohols have been killed in this pointless war, and nobody gives a shit.

There is a PR difference between battlefield casualties - which they try to hide because it's hard to spin it as filthy orcs rampaging - and civilians burning up in a nuclear heat - which is prime propaganda material. I mean nobody gives a shit either way, but a lot would pretend to.

 

[Maginot]

People give a shit, but what can amerimutts do besides direct action that'll get them the terrorism jackboots? Voting ain't going to change shit. It sucks that they are dead, it sucks even more that there will be endless state redirection about the cause of said death.

 

[Tumbo II]

Ukraine has officially Banned the Canonical Orthodox Church within the Country under Metropolitan Onufry of Kiev and All Ukraine. they have Declared War on God and his Church. Which is undoubtedly the Stupidest thing they could have done this will come back to haunt them in more ways then they could ever hope to realize.