US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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Ok. So is Trump peaking too soon, or is this the real deal..

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everyone who talks about polling meaning something without disclosing the weight of the poll is a dumbass. This is good if it's D +5/+10, horrific if it's R +5/10

shit matters

Works for me.

https://downdetector.com/status/4chan/ says no issues

shits on your end
 
everyone who talks about polling meaning something without disclosing the weight of the poll is a dumbass. This is good if it's D +5/+10, horrific if it's R +5/10

shit matters
Right, they sure aren't making that easy to find on this one, even at the NY Times link. Have to look, but I'd imagine they weight D big.

And this is getting kind of crazy. I do believe Trump is surging heavy, but man.

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Right, they sure aren't making that easy to find on this one, even at the NY Times link. Have to look, but I'd imagine they weight D big.
Exactly. Show me a NYT poll that isn't heavily D weighted. Hell, they're the type of shop to lie about just how biased they are.

Long story short, if this is the best they could come up with, things are painful.
 
Ok. So is Trump peaking too soon, or is this the real deal..

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Either this one wasn't D weighted as much as previous polls, or the NYT can see which way the wind is blowing and are updating polls to reflect that and not lose what little credibility they still have.

The fact I'm legit not sure which is more likely is telling. Can Clown World run out of steam soon, it's all so tiresome at this point.
 
Why didn't MacArthur just say "OK, sure, if you want?"?
MacArthur despite what modern and post-modern historians say was quite intelligent. He didn’t want to spiritually Buck break the Japanese anymore than he had to (bringing out his ancestor’s, Commodore Perry the man who opened Japan with his black ships, flag to the Japanese surrender and then towering over the Emperor in pictures).

MacArthur didn’t have a lot of writings about his philosophical disagreements with how Eisenhower, Churchill, and De Gaulle thought to disarm Germany and rebuild it, but you can kind of see how he did it. MacArthur was effectively the Shogun in post-war Japan. He basically rebuilt Japan without disgracing them like the Germans.

You can insult him for the Philippines (he was told to not surrender and regroup), but MacArthur’s tenure over Japan is impressive and should be taught as the massive success it was.
 
Ok. So is Trump peaking too soon, or is this the real deal..

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This is bad for Kamala considering Trump has reached the majority if his real polling over performs by 2 to 3 like it has the past two elections. There might be a tipping point after debate where they flip the table and do whatever they can to keep power.

Something will definitely happen, they’ve been scared of this and it’s happening much sooner than they expected.
 
This is bad for Kamala considering Trump has reached the majority if his real polling over performs by 2 to 3 like it has the past two elections. There might be a tipping point after debate where they flip the table and do whatever they can to keep power.

Something will definitely happen, they’ve been scared of this and it’s happening much sooner than they expected.
I don't think she can do good enough now to overcome what's going on own her own. Trump will need a Biden style performance level I think.
 
Ok. So is Trump peaking too soon, or is this the real deal..

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Nah, this is just the end of Kamla's honeymoon, which Rich Baris and Co. have predicted for a while now. Kamala is returning to the pre-debate Biden average. However, what I'm interested in is the regional splits. They found that he's up, as NYT found Trump up by 11 in the Midwest. For comparison, he won it by around 4.5 in 2016 and around 2 in 2020. This means he's in a position to sweep the entire thing if the debate goes well. The only flaw in the poll is it's an R+2, which is realistic, but I would have preferred it be between R+1 and D+1.
 
I don't think she can do good enough now to overcome what's going on own her own. Trump will need a Biden style performance level I think.
The most realistic assumption is she tries to kill him again. Or maybe she throws the election out the window due to “Russian interference” before lobbing a nuke towards Russia.
 
This is bad for Kamala considering Trump has reached the majority if his real polling over performs by 2 to 3 like it has the past two elections. There might be a tipping point after debate where they flip the table and do whatever they can to keep power.
They will lawfare and delay for 2 years. Then use the economy not magically getting better to get a traditional mid terms swing and gain control of Congress. Then impeach him non stop and do what the Republicans should have done the last 2 years.

There will be enough Uni Party Republicans to backstab Trump and they will have control of the agencies as they actively rebel. They have judges who will rule however they want. They can and will delay things for 2 years with lawfare, malfeasance, outright deception and fraud. Trump winning is when the trench fight actually starts.
 
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