Stock Market, Business, and Investing General - News, Tips, etc

[Junkers 87]

...

The Federal Reserve have realized that they should have cut rates sooner, rather than waiting as long as they did. The high borrowing costs was hammering the labor market, hence their previous statements about pivoting more weight towards the 2nd half of their dual mandate; maximum employment. Jerome himself has stated that had he gotten the employment data sooner, he would have cut in July.

We will still feel some pain from inflation for some time because it's not something that simply goes away; it compounds.

 

[reptile baht spaniard rid]

My guess is that the economy is waaay worse than everybody thinks and the fed just had to do it to keep alot of big companies from going belly up under all their debt.

This is likely the real issue; poor people interest rapes are already at the legal max on credit cards or fixed on a mortgage, but commercial real estate debt revolves and is coming close to due ….

 

[Edict of Expulsion]

There does have to be a recession at some point, though. I really don’t think it’s a bad thing:

1. Clears out zombie companies
2. Allows people, especially younger people, to purchase assets at lower prices
3. Periods of unemployment are usually short lived and serve to shift workers from unproductive to productive sectors of the economy

Suppressing recessions is a bit like suppressing wildfires. I don’t believe it’s actually a desirable goal long term. In fact, more frequent (and shorter) recessions are probably what is most desirable and we have been fucking ourselves by not letting it happen.

You can extend the analogy further and have “controlled burns”.

Although any central economic planning is inherently inept and inefficient and ripe for corruption, so there likely would be choosing winners and losers, and lots of insider trading.

Somehow there is just extreme denial both about how occasional wildfires are necessary and also occasional recessions.

No company should have a market cap that is some fraction of a percent of GDP, preventing monopolies and then you won’t have trash like Boeing.

Companies already, and even the government, rely so heavily on contractors and consultants to cover their asses and over pay extremely. Might as well just have actual companies doing the work then contracting and consulting

 

[The Punished Mitch]

People in this topic still, after all these years, fail to comprehend that line will never go down for more than a few months at most. The stock market and to a lesser degree assets like real estate, is where the masters of our universe keep their wealth and there is absolutely no limit to what their servants on Wall Street, the Federal Reserve and in government will do to protect that wealth.

 

[Irregardless]

So a couple questions, first, I've been looking to do a refi on my current home loan which is at 7.25%, I bought it for it's investment potential as a multi-home rental and was hoping I could get it refi'd to 5% in 2024/25. At the moment though I'm not sure how long it'll be until that's possible, or if I can expect a <5% rate potentially in the future and wait for that, so question is, any suggestions when I should refinance the loan?

Second question, I have no fuckin clue what I should invest in outside of real estate, I have 6 figures of liquid cash sloshing around (high income, no debt outside mortgages, live frugally) and it's at the point where I can feel inflation burning away at it. I'm great at making and saving money, but I'm pretty retarded when it comes to investing it. I don't really trust S&P as it seems like a bubble, I know nothing about other stocks, and I'm not sure if metals are a good idea either. The fuck should I do?

 

[Kong Strong]

So a couple questions, first, I've been looking to do a refi on my current home loan which is at 7.25%, I bought it for it's investment potential as a multi-home rental and was hoping I could get it refi'd to 5% in 2024/25. At the moment though I'm not sure how long it'll be until that's possible, or if I can expect a <5% rate potentially in the future and wait for that, so question is, any suggestions when I should refinance the loan?

Second question, I have no fuckin clue what I should invest in outside of real estate, I have 6 figures of liquid cash sloshing around (high income, no debt outside mortgages, live frugally) and it's at the point where I can feel inflation burning away at it. I'm great at making and saving money, but I'm pretty retarded when it comes to investing it. I don't really trust S&P as it seems like a bubble, I know nothing about other stocks, and I'm not sure if metals are a good idea either. The fuck should I do?

https://treasurydirect.gov/ would have been a better deal like 2 weeks ago with interest rates going back down, but if you don't trust the s&p then t-bills are about as safe as an investment can be.

 

[Gorilla Man]

SILVERCHADS
OUR TIME IS NIGH

 

[Lichen Bark]

My entire investment strategy in a nutshell:

So far so good.

 

[hog cranking frog]

Second question, I have no fuckin clue what I should invest in outside of real estate, I have 6 figures of liquid cash sloshing around (high income, no debt outside mortgages, live frugally) and it's at the point where I can feel inflation burning away at it. I'm great at making and saving money, but I'm pretty retarded when it comes to investing it. I don't really trust S&P as it seems like a bubble, I know nothing about other stocks, and I'm not sure if metals are a good idea either. The fuck should I do?

Similar situation. Not sure what to do either. Going with high yield savings in the short term rn whole this whole shit sorts itself out.

 

[Non-breath oblige]

I don't really trust S&P as it seems like a bubble, I know nothing about other stocks, and I'm not sure if metals are a good idea either. The fuck should I do?

That's the idea with S&P and other total market index funds - I don't know jack about other stocks and I'm not sure if XYZ industry is a good investment, so investing in these funds you don't got to worry about any of that. Companies and industries will always come and go from the index and the balance of their holdings in the fund relative to the entire economy is auto managed for you behind the scenes. NVIDIA and Amazon tank in value tomorrow? Someone doing better will always take their place. At the end of the day, Wall Street always wants the stonks line to go up long term. Let them do all the hard work for you.

If S&P is too little, go with something broader like VT and chill. Because hey if the entire world's economy collapses, you've got more important things to worry about.

 

[SneedleDee&SneedleDumb]

Here is how we could stop inflation and significantly reduce it every year, just hear me out.
1. Restrict fed spending as much as possible (good fucking luck, I know) and aim to have a surplus every year as big as possible.
2, Burn the surplus.
3. Repeal tax exempt status from churches, give them some sort of write off to mediate.
4. Burn taxes from the churches.

Would incrementally reduce the total in circulation, thus increasing the value of what is still in circulation. It's so simple a child can grasp the concept, but our virtuous congress instead passes shit like the Inflation Reduction Act that ADDED $400,000,000,000 into circulation. Everyone is so puzzled about how inflation just surged so hard suddenly, what could have possibly disrupted the economy so terribly? Remember when we all got a fat check from the glowies? Those checks in total were a whopping $884,000,000,000 that is a big hit to the economy, but it should balance out economically is we spend it here. That's where the other part of the Stimulus Package, around $4,200,000,000,000 that really comes into play, especially when around 3 trillion was used in foreign aid; hard to conclude how that stimulates or economy.

Congress just gave themselves a raise again this year as well.

 

[Rootless Cosmopolitan]

Somehow there is just extreme denial both about how occasional wildfires are necessary and also occasional recessions.

Both literally and figuratively, no one likes to get burned.

 

[DSP's Tax Lawyer]

My guess is that the economy is waaay worse than everybody thinks and the fed just had to do it to keep alot of big companies from going belly up under all their debt.

I would guess banks are feeling a ton of pressure. The long term debt held by these banks was probably really starting to burn a hole in their pockets

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

So a couple questions, first, I've been looking to do a refi on my current home loan which is at 7.25%, I bought it for it's investment potential as a multi-home rental and was hoping I could get it refi'd to 5% in 2024/25. At the moment though I'm not sure how long it'll be until that's possible, or if I can expect a <5% rate potentially in the future and wait for that, so question is, any suggestions when I should refinance the loan?

Second question, I have no fuckin clue what I should invest in outside of real estate, I have 6 figures of liquid cash sloshing around (high income, no debt outside mortgages, live frugally) and it's at the point where I can feel inflation burning away at it. I'm great at making and saving money, but I'm pretty retarded when it comes to investing it. I don't really trust S&P as it seems like a bubble, I know nothing about other stocks, and I'm not sure if metals are a good idea either. The fuck should I do?

First question, I dunno, I can't tell the future but you're probably better off waiting til end of year since more rate cuts are expected

Second question, I'd recommend dollar-cost averaging into S&P 500 ETF, put a bit in each month, no matter what it is. Don't sell, just stick with the plan. Trying to time the market is a fool's errand and you won't be able to do it. The rest I'd put into a T-bill ladder. Take out what you might need for expenses, put it into a high-yield online savings. The rest you'll probably want to put some into either 4, 8, 13, 17, or 26 week T-bill ladders (or a combination).

Making a ladder can be pretty fun and I can do the math for you if you'd like, but I'd probably go with a 26 week T-bill ladder if you can. You'll want t-bills rather than money markets because as rates go down, the shorter-duration ones will kill your returns.

 

[Peaches the Wonder Cat]

For those of us who have significant investments in risky assets (stocks) - what's the alternative for safer now? US government bonds are losing money with lower interest rates and high inflation.

 

[Irregardless]

https://treasurydirect.gov/ would have been a better deal like 2 weeks ago with interest rates going back down, but if you don't trust the s&p then t-bills are about as safe as an investment can be.

I should rephrase, it's not that I don't trust the S&P, it's more so I am not steeped enough in investment content or knowledge to know if it's actually a good idea. There are times when I see a lot of info on it that makes me think I should invest in it, then there's weeks where I see stuff about how it's value doesn't equal it's actual cost due to the influx of money into the economy, so I'm just really unsure about it. Also, I have no idea what T-bills are, but I'll look into them.

Similar situation. Not sure what to do either. Going with high yield savings in the short term rn whole this whole shit sorts itself out.

Hell, you're doing better than me seeing as how I know that at bare minimum I should be doing the same, yet I am just too lazy to move it all over. We just have like $100k sitting in my wife's bank account doing fuck all, not including another $40-50k in my checking/crypto. We make something like $20k/month after taxes, but we spend about $8k/month on our mortgages, so we still end up with $10-12k/month for spending/saving. Even with all of that though, it feels like nothing when you get random $1k+ expenses all the time, everything nice costs 10's of thousands of dollars for every individual thing, and if I wanna get more real estate I need to drain the accounts just to get maybe a few hundred extra bucks a month in income.

That's the idea with S&P and other total market index funds - I don't know jack about other stocks and I'm not sure if XYZ industry is a good investment, so investing in these funds you don't got to worry about any of that. Companies and industries will always come and go from the index and the balance of their holdings in the fund relative to the entire economy is auto managed for you behind the scenes. NVIDIA and Amazon tank in value tomorrow? Someone doing better will always take their place. At the end of the day, Wall Street always wants the stonks line to go up long term. Let them do all the hard work for you.

If S&P is too little, go with something broader like VT and chill. Because hey if the entire world's economy collapses, you've got more important things to worry about.

Hmmm, maybe I should just stop procrastinating thinking that I'll figure something else better out and just dump a bunch into the S&P then. I mean at this point I'm not doing myself any favors just holding on to it other than some scarcity mindset complex.

First question, I dunno, I can't tell the future but you're probably better off waiting til end of year since more rate cuts are expected

Second question, I'd recommend dollar-cost averaging into S&P 500 ETF, put a bit in each month, no matter what it is. Don't sell, just stick with the plan. Trying to time the market is a fool's errand and you won't be able to do it. The rest I'd put into a T-bill ladder. Take out what you might need for expenses, put it into a high-yield online savings. The rest you'll probably want to put some into either 4, 8, 13, 17, or 26 week T-bill ladders (or a combination).

Making a ladder can be pretty fun and I can do the math for you if you'd like, but I'd probably go with a 26 week T-bill ladder if you can. You'll want t-bills rather than money markets because as rates go down, the shorter-duration ones will kill your returns.

Ugh, I was hoping there was a for sure answer out there that people more into investment and finance would know that I just don't, but if you think more cuts are coming it's probably best to just wait til the end of the year regardless.

In regards to the dollar cost averaging and T-bill ladder, I know what dollar cost averaging is, and that it's a pretty good way to invest if you wanna play it safe, but I don't know what T-bills are. If you're open to it I'll have to take you up on your offer and DM you about it once my wife and I try to organize our finances soon. Thanks homie

 

[Kong Strong]

The issue I have with the s&p right now is that outside of the top 7 companies which represent 50% it has seen literally zero growth in the last like year and a half. Despite that it is showing very very high growth and with Tesla performing poorly it is largely being propped up by Nvidias ability to sell GPUs to people chasing the AI boom. So when I'm handfed very high growth t-bills at a time when the market seems shakey to say the least then I'd have to be retarded to pass that up.

 

[Ghostse]

Ammo is always a good investment. Metals might be a good one as well.

10 karat gold bullets.
If society hasn't collapsed, you can sell the gold. If it has completely imploded, your gold can be more productive than shiny paperweights.

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

Ugh, I was hoping there was a for sure answer out there that people more into investment and finance would know that I just don't, but if you think more cuts are coming it's probably best to just wait til the end of the year regardless.

In regards to the dollar cost averaging and T-bill ladder, I know what dollar cost averaging is, and that it's a pretty good way to invest if you wanna play it safe, but I don't know what T-bills are. If you're open to it I'll have to take you up on your offer and DM you about it once my wife and I try to organize our finances soon. Thanks homie

Sure. T-Bills are US treasury bonds that are issued in 52 or fewer weeks in duration. (Treasury notes mature in 2, 3, 5, 7, or 10 years, and Treasury Bonds are 20 or 30 years)

You can buy them from a brokerage, or directly from Treasury Direct. I'd go with the latter option if you don't plan to ever sell them (you can sell treasuries on the secondary market if you need to cash out early but may sell at a loss; I think, but can't confirm, that you can transfer from Treasury Direct to a brokerage account). You could also put $10k in I Bonds a year if you want to hedge inflation a bit. I Bonds can be redeemed at any time >1 year but are locked up before that and have a $10k limit per year per social security number (so your wife could make an account and do $10k per year too).

It looks like yields went way down recently on 52 week, but 26 are still >4%. Which duration you choose to ladder is up to you, but I'd go 26 or 52 week and then do it weekly with that much money. Right now I'd go 26 week. You could also go with a money market mutual fund but with rate cuts coming the yield will drop faster than a ladder

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

I have 6 figures of liquid cash sloshing around (high income, no debt outside mortgages, live frugally) and it's at the point where I can feel inflation burning away at it. I'm great at making and saving money, but I'm pretty retarded when it comes to investing it. I don't really trust S&P as it seems like a bubble, I know nothing about other stocks, and I'm not sure if metals are a good idea either. The fuck should I do?

Metals depends on the type. They fuck with PM prices as well quite often and we had a discussion on platinum and palladium which haven't steeply risen in price in the adjacent PM thread.

From (my) agriculture based perspective, I think betting on water rights might be a viable strategy in the west coast and the plains states. Issue is farmers might just say fuck you and blow your shit up like in the California Water Wars and how the state interprets water rights when changing the law will become a big FUCK YOU. I don't have (yet) money to make major investments in this but I'm looking at water rights in the current areas which I'm not priced out by corpos. Groundwater and maybe surface rights, but no river water rights since you loose those if not used.

Austin, TX (Eastern side towards Houston, rumor is they're gonna build a aqueduct out from Milam, TX)
Cheyenne, WY
Boise, ID (especially since there's a major semi fab out)
Trementon, UT
Spokane/Cour-d'alene area (Lots of pollution in the area so good groundwater is hard to find)
Clark River upstream of Kalispell, MT (There's a Semiconductor company there allegedly dumping waste into the river at the city there, so this would be a hedge bet, also EPA cleaning up an other superfund there is going to be "finished").

I'd consider the area between Missoula and Hamilton... But already carved into 5 acre lots...