Hurricane Milton

[Anonitolia]

Jeez, look at those clouds. How much of this could even be considered part of Milton? Just the closest part to the eye?

 

[Neurotypical Mantis]

total floridian death. they chose to live there despite all the constant death vortexes. it is uninhabitable.

 

[PyrrhicRustle]

Milton still at Cat 4, but is just under the cutoff for 5, and is gearing up to intensify.

 

[Disaffected Coyote]

How wide is that?

Around 10 miles I believe,


Edit to not double post.

Milton is nearly a cat 5 again.

 

[CarlKingofDucks]

Did Florida Man piss God off for the last time?

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

total floridian death. they chose to live there despite all the constant death vortexes. it is uninhabitable.

No. It's habitable. If your idea of habitable is a swamp filled with mosquitos and alligators where most structures are shacks, everything is mildewed, electricity and water are shady at best and you have to migrate every autumn

 

[A Cardboard Box]

“MREs that could be pretty useful right now”, you’re spot on.

There's no shortage of MREs, I promise. In this case, they'd be using HDRs anyway.

I mean… They ran out of electrical generators for storm relief, since they sent them all to Ukraine

Are you referring to Beryl? If so, that's just because FEMA's budget was fucked at the time. If you bought or rented a generator during Beryl you can get a check from the government to pay for your costs. If you're referring to grid level stuff, like power transformers and grid parts, that's completely wrong, because our grid components aren't compatible. Ukraine is still on the Russian system which is totally incompatible with Western systems. That's why Estonia and Latvia send so many electrical grid components.

Why?

The short answer is that the larger the storm, and specifically the larger the eye, the more resilient to wind shear the system is as a whole, and, generally speaking, an EWRC will almost always lead to the eye and storm expanding. In this instance, the eye has gone from 4 miles across to 12 miles.

 

[XYZpdq Jr.]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/081742.shtml

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081742
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON'S INTENSITY
HAS REBOUNDED...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth
of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. Although Milton has
been wobbling during the past few hours, its longer-term motion is
toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin
later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The
center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of
Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across
central Florida through Thursday.

Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite images indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 923 mb
(27.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the
warning areas in Mexico today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area
on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across
the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Rumors are Florida is getting ready to close southbound interstate Highways in anticipation of a Lane Reversal.

 

[Zeno Bardas]

J hope Josh will be okay....

 

[deepFriedBaka]

why.

Mother Nature must really want Florida dead, mayhaps. (Wasn't Milton formed from a disturbance that only had a 20% chance of formation, or am I misremembering that?)

 

[Anonitolia]

Wasn't Milton formed from a disturbance that only had a 20% chance of formation, or am I misremembering that?

If you're misremembering, then it's mutual. I remember spotting it while looking for Helene updates as a possible disturbance and was just as concerned then about Milton as I am now about this new thing.

Let's just hope history doesn't repeat itself. Three major hurricanes in one month would be fucking awful.

 

[The Stranger]

Milton is nearly a cat 5 again.

Nearly Cat 5 again and it JUST left the Mexican coast. Holy shitballs dude

 

[Not Really Here]

Jeez, look at those clouds. How much of this could even be considered part of Milton? Just the closest part to the eye?
View attachment 6500132

Most of that is the hurricane as the "feeder bands" are normally included, so everything from the Yucatan to the East coast of Florida.

 

[not william stenchever]

Did Florida Man piss God off for the last time?

God loves idiots and children and Florida Man is the overlap in the Venn diagram. This is God repeating himself that the leadership has lost the mandate of heaven and the people need to fix that or it will keep getting worse. The strength and beauty of the storm is him going "Did I fucking stutter?"

 

[Paranoia Machine]

Hurricane Milton? More like Hurricane MilFton!! Amirite!?

Either way stop getting fucked by the sky lol

 

[a hapless toad]

I know Tampa is below sea level, I'd be amazed if Tampa isn't reduced to a swamp when Milton is done.

Tampa is not below sea level.

 

[Anakin Soywalker]

Hurricane Milton? More like Hurricane MilFton!! Amirite!?

Either way stop getting fucked by the sky lol

Imagine getting hurt by some wind LMAO the sky isn't real it can't hurt you quit being so melodramatic for Facebook likes

 

[Jimmy Dean Bowl]

155mph sustained winds...only 2mph increase and he's back to being classified as Cat 5.

Holy God

 

[deepFriedBaka]

Nearly Cat 5 again and it JUST left the Mexican coast. Holy shitballs dude

He's probably going to become a Category 5 again some point today. The big question is how badly Florida gets hit. I remember when the news came out that Helene had unsurvivable storm surges. A week or so later, and it looks like if the models hold, Tampa gets those surges. Which is terrible for everyone involved.

Let's just hope that Tropical Disturbance 1 doesn't become Hurricane Whateverthefuck (though I suppose in this case if it did, it would be Hurricane Nadine, if the male-female naming trend continues). I don't think any state, much less Florida, could handle being fucked over by three hurricanes in three weeks.