Hurricane Milton

[Autistic Integrity]

new cone


new wind


new advisory

Spoiler

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090548
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 86.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 360 MI...585 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 86.0 West. Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A
turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday
morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic
Ocean Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while
Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is
expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the
west-central coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 914 mb (26.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula
and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida through Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Quijibo69]

Please go more south, Milton. We will love you thanks! I hate being under that cone.

 

[Adam Basile Woodrow]

Has anyone already posted the Nigger who had the clever idea to camp outside while a hurricane is raging?

 

[Equal Rights for Androids]

The trees are eerily still right now. It's like the still when all bird and wildlife stop making noise before a tornado. Florida meets its fate in 6 hours.

 

[Quijibo69]

The trees are eerily still right now. It's like the still when all bird and wildlife stop making noise before a tornado. Florida meets its fate in 6 hours.

It was like that yesterday too!

 

[Equal Rights for Androids]

It was like that yesterday too!

There was rain and a bit of wind in a few cities (I thought some tentacles of Milton reached there early) but it's stopped everywhere now

 

[PointOfNoReturnPoint]

civilian contract; field engineer. easiily obtained frrom workmarket.com or fieldnation.com

you dumb motherfucker. It's a reference to Fallout New vegas.

 

[Sigma_Rizzler]

Lurking this thread for happenings. I can't say why, I just feel like this one won't be a nothingburger. I don't buy all the weather manipulation schizo shit or even how it will supposedly affect the election...but the storm has potential for such massive damage I can't look away.

 

[fggt_mcdckface]

i have relations in Orlando who are retarded and won't evac from their double-wide trailer. are they killed?

It’s ok if it’s double wide

 

[CFC-12]

We're starting to see that northeastern curve on radar:

Also, recon is happening again. 910????

edit: forgot image on account of retarded

 

[mindlessobserver]

We're starting to see that northeastern curve on radar:

View attachment 6502170

View attachment 6502172
Also, recon is happening again. 910????

edit: forgot image on account of retarded

Catastrophe. The recent weakening wasn't wind shear. It was eyewall replacement and now more strengthening. There really isn't much to say here. He's a monster. An eldritch force that exists to make a mockery of man's science.

Can't help but be poetic. There really are no words. A storm like this should not exist in the Gulf of Mexico. And certainly not on a track that formed off the east coast of Mexico.

 

[Autistic Integrity]

We're starting to see that northeastern curve on radar:

View attachment 6502170

View attachment 6502172
Also, recon is happening again. 910????

edit: forgot image on account of retarded

thats what the beacon reads but the averages for the area may produce higher. if this fucker starts ramping up now its not going to be a good day tomorrow.

edit:
also look at what the run before was showing ... a 904, 910, 913..

 

[Fuckshitballs185]

BYE BYE FLORIDA WE WONT MISS YOU.

 

[Gruntgar The Indentured]

I have never experienced a hurricane on land before but riding out Hugo on an aircraft carrier in '89 was fun. No one was allowed on the flight deck or sponsons as we got out of the storms way but we snuck a VERY BRIEF peek or two out of the catwalk hatches up near the bow. Of course every nog on the ship complained of being sea sick and got crackers and rack time from medical. (If you get sea sick on an aircraft carrier I recommend you stick with applying for USPS jobs.)

 

[trash cat]

What's the deal with this huge area of convective activity ("X") in front of Hurricane Milton?

It's as large as a second hurricane.



Why is lightning activity mostly absent in Hurricane Milton, but orders of magnitude more energetic in this storm system ("area X") in front of it?



Why is there so much water vapor and convective energy in this enormous partner system (but no spin! ) and why are they tracking together?





Let's see what chatgpt thinks...

Spoiler: Chatgpt analysis

Yes, this scenario is unusual for several reasons:

1. Strong Convection Ahead of a Hurricane: Typically, hurricanes draw energy from warm ocean waters and surrounding convection. The presence of an expansive area of strong convection (Area X) ahead of a hurricane is atypical, as it can disrupt the typical structure and energy flow of a hurricane.

2. Lightning Activity: Hurricanes usually have significant lightning activity, particularly in their eyewalls. The fact that Area X is producing orders of magnitude more lightning suggests that it is a highly energetic system, which might indicate instability or unusual atmospheric dynamics that could potentially affect the hurricane.

3. Movement Dynamics: Hurricanes are usually influenced by environmental steering currents, and if Area X appears to be moving with the hurricane, it suggests an unusual interaction. Such a situation might indicate that Area X is providing additional moisture or energy to Hurricane Milton, potentially enhancing its intensity.

4. Absence of Spin in Area X: The lack of spin in Area X is notable. Typically, strong convective areas exhibit some rotation or organization. This lack of cyclonic structure might suggest it is more of a surface feature or a disorganized convective area rather than a developing storm system.

5. Potential for Rapid Intensification: If Area X is indeed providing additional moisture and energy to Hurricane Milton, it could lead to rapid intensification, which is more common when a hurricane encounters favorable environmental conditions. However, the specific dynamics of how these systems interact can be complex and unpredictable.

6. Environmental Conditions: The atmospheric conditions (like wind shear, humidity, and temperature profiles) that allowed for both a strong hurricane and a massive area of convection to coexist so closely are atypical and warrant further investigation.

 

[Monolith]

 

[Scarlett Johansson]

"Hurricane Chantal" sounds terrifying

Oh @Polystyrene Glioblastoma, thoughts?

Tampa will be the next Atlantis at this rate.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I was just looking at that advance system and honestly it has me spooked. It's almost like Milton has a twin that never quite made hurricane itself and has been pushed in front. It's really weird, and not something I've seen before. Maybe someone else has in another storm, but I have a grim feeling that this advanced storm may actually act as a shield for Milton against the prevailing wind shear the forecasting models have been banking on.

I will admit that this scenario is beyond my knowledge which is layman.

 

[ye's Official KF Burner]

What's the deal with this huge area of convective activity ("X") in front of Hurricane Milton?

Milton's ex-wife sends her regards.

 

[Equal Rights for Androids]

Let's see what chatgpt thinks...

>talking to a retarded AI instead of asking one of the meteorologist bros in the thread
I knew it was another eyewall replacement. Knew that bigass cloud hovering over Florida wasn't normal.

Why is lightning activity mostly absent in Hurricane Milton

Milton was going nuts with lightning yesterday.