Generation Z is poised to flex its growing political muscle in the 2024 presidential election, and in my surveys and focus groups with these voters, I’m seeing the strong potential for a turning point in American political alignment. Unlike other recent Republican presidential nominees, Donald Trump is making young men a central focus of his campaign. If effective, his effort could peel enough away from the Democratic Party to transform the country’s electoral math for years to come.
Recent data from the Harvard Youth Poll, a national survey I oversee for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, reveals an increasing political rift between young men and women under 30, two groups critical to Democrats’ success in recent elections. Almost exactly equal shares of young men and young women say they will definitely vote in this election or have already done so. But since the spring of 2020, the share of young men identifying as registered Democrats has dropped by seven percentage points, while those identifying as Republicans have increased by seven points — a net shift of 14 points in just four years. Young women, during the same period, shifted two points away from the Republicans.
Take one young Pittsburgh man I met in a recent focus group. A college graduate working part-time as a bartender, he felt weighed down by hopelessness, adrift in a country where rising costs, stagnant wages and lack of affordable housing have made even the modest ambitions of other generations feel out of reach for him. “Hope is great,” he told me, “but I see nothing for the future.”
The young man’s experience reflects a broader crisis of confidence and purpose, rooted in economic insecurity and social disconnection. The Covid pandemic exacerbated the alienation, with many first-time voters spending thousands of hours isolated and online in their formative years.
While these struggles affect the whole country, they weigh especially on young men of all educational, racial and ethnic backgrounds. Nearly three-quarters of Gen Z men report feeling regularly stressed by an uncertain future, stirring painful memories of the Great Recession they witnessed as children. These feelings erode self-esteem and diminish their interest in personal relationships and long-term planning, leading many to describe their future as “bleak,” “unclear” and “scary.”
Today’s young men are lonelier than ever and have inherited a world rife with skepticism toward the institutions designed to promote and defend American ideals. Men under 30 are nearly twice as likely to be single as women their same age; Gen Z men are less likely to enroll in college or the work force than previous generations. They have higher rates of suicide and are less likely than their female peers to receive treatment for mental health maladies. Most young men in my polling say they fear for our country’s future, and nearly half doubt their cohort’s ability to meet our nation’s coming challenges.
Mr. Trump has tapped these anxieties by weaving a hypermasculine message of strength and defiance into his broader narrative that undermines confidence in democratic institutions. And it’s working. Aware that boasting about “killing” Roe v. Wade drove away young women, Mr. Trump zeroed in on capturing a larger share of the young male vote. In four years, he cut what was once a 19-percentage point Democratic margin among registered young male voters (50 percent Mr. Biden, 31 percent Mr. Trump) roughly in half (48 percent Ms. Harris, 38 percent Mr. Trump) in our poll.
His playbook? A master class in bro-whispering: championing crypto, securing the endorsement of Dave Portnoy — the unapologetically offensive founder of Barstool Sports — and giving U.F.C. President Dana White, who embodies the alpha-male archetype that appeals to many young men, a prime spot at the Republican National Convention. Mr. Trump has also cultivated relationships with simpatico comedians, pranksters, influencers and Silicon Valley billionaires like Elon Musk — all while his team bombards podcasts and social media with misinformation and memes to rally his troops.
This shift in support for Mr. Trump among men is neither organic nor unexpected. It’s what happens when a well-coordinated political operation invests tens of millions of dollars to amplify Mr. Trump’s narrative and weaken confidence in the party in power. Compared with when Mr. Trump ran in 2020, young male voters are now less likely to support government-backed climate change solutions (down 15 points, according to our poll) and affirmative action for qualified candidates (down eight points). They are more likely to question immigration policy (up 12 points), free trade (up 10 points) and whether government stimulus leads to economic growth (up seven points). They are also more likely to believe that religious values should play a more important role in government (up six points).
Is this rightward drift among young men simply a short-lived, Trump-inspired episode or a more permanent transformation? The answer lies partly in Ms. Harris’s ability to connect with and motivate young voters as the campaign nears its end.
To be sure, she is doing better than Mr. Biden. Among men 18 to 29, her favorable rating is 44 percent, seven percentage points higher than Mr. Biden’s and thirteen points higher than Mr. Trump’s. While Mr. Biden’s age and traditional political approach often created distance with younger voters, Ms. Harris’s ability to engage across digital platforms and tap into youth culture sets her apart. Our polling also shows that while Mr. Trump has made significant inroads with young men, more still find Ms. Harris more relatable and competent. Mr. Trump still holds a narrow advantage on the economy, patriotism and strength, but Ms. Harris’s connection with young men continues to grow, suggesting she has yet to reach her ceiling with this demographic.
But to win more votes from young men, Ms. Harris must address their fears head-on and present a bold vision that speaks to their desire for purpose and strength. Of course, a clear economic vision that charts a pathway to financial independence is paramount, but it may not be enough to counter Mr. Trump’s appeal on this issue in the closing days. Ms. Harris needs to go big.
Here’s one way. To reignite the hope of the emerging generation, Ms. Harris should make a sweeping national call to both military and civilian service — name it the Generation Z Compact to Rebuild and Renew America. Such a plan would offer a sense of identity, community and patriotism, while providing economic stability and skill-building — things many young men feel they are missing.
Young Americans have consistently voiced support for national service programs, yet political action has yet to catch up. A 2021 survey revealed that 71 percent of adults under 25 were open to participating in a service program. Even more striking, a poll conducted last year found that about 75 percent of young people backed mandatory national service. These numbers tell a clear story: Our youth’s appetite for civic engagement is strong and growing.
From President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal Civilian Conservation Corps in 1933 to President John F. Kennedy’s Peace Corps in 1961 to President Bill Clinton’s AmeriCorps in 1993, national service has been a cornerstone of American resilience, transformation and progress. More than three decades after the last significant civic engagement initiative, Kamala Harris can frame national service as a pathway to rebuilding America’s strength from within, addressing growing concerns about military recruitment and bridging political divides with a renewed sense of shared responsibility.
Donald Trump has gained ground with Gen Z by systematically exploiting the fears and insecurities of young men, making them feel that their masculinity and future are under siege. Kamala Harris can counter that narrative by listening and recognizing their fears but also by offering something more profound: a vision of hope, strength and shared purpose.
John Della Volpe is the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. He is the author of “Fight: How Gen Z Is Channeling Their Fear and Passion to Save America.” He was a pollster for Joe Biden’s presidential campaign in 2020 and runs a research firm that conducted polls for a PAC supporting the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaigns.
