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US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians
- Thread starter SeniorFuckFace
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- Jul 29, 2024
She looks like a desiccated JK Rowling.
Tony Hinchcliffe isn't a nobody. I'm sorta surprised he did a set at Trump's rally, though. He is known for roasting people.
babadook
kiwifarms.net
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- Dec 25, 2019
But what's the discrepancy between party affiliation and vote cast, usually?
- Joined
- Nov 5, 2023
Holy shit I thought that was a throwaway organic moment she did in one of her rallies a few weeks back, it was cringe but I didn't realize it was part of her scripted speeches at rallies. Who's idea was this? So retarded.
Back me up!
kiwifarms.net
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- Jan 2, 2017
Rumors are they are going to VA
Which gives me hope cause if Harris is really worried about VA then they are really fucked.
- Joined
- May 4, 2020
Hey can one of you cut this video out of the post? It is a good one of a lady getting arrested in PA for standing in line to vote. Plus her Mom is a friend and I want to keep a copy.
Ace comment section:
Sorry for the request. I can't rip things for a while. I hope the content suffices as payment even if it was from yesterday.
Ace comment section:
Sorry for the request. I can't rip things for a while. I hope the content suffices as payment even if it was from yesterday.
- Joined
- Sep 23, 2019
- People genuinely getting worried over a single joke
- Kamala Harris is having a 'please clap' moment.
- Joined
- Jul 8, 2024
Yes he would. In fact he'd be invited to schools to give speeches like that these days. I'm more surprised he got away with it back then.
John Badman
kiwifarms.net
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- Aug 7, 2024
It sounds like they’re going to arrest any open support of Trump as electioneering.
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2022
GoGoNoJo
kiwifarms.net
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- Dec 16, 2019
This data is sourced from a data company known as "TargetSmart" and their "model of party affiliation". If you go on this company's about page and ctr-F "progressive", you'll see they're not exactly an unbiased source.
The website I've been using to analyze the early voting results is L2 data, which Yale apparently finds trustworthy enough to license.
SOUTH/WEST
Arizona - 42% Rep 36% Dem 16.1% Indie
Nevada - 38% Rep 36% Dem 19.9% Indie
Georgia - 42% Rep 42% Dem 15.9% Indie
North Carolina - 34% Rep 33% Dem 32% Indie
RUST BELT
Wisconsin - 50% Rep 32% Dem 18.1% Indie
Michigan - 41% Rep 53% Dem 6.3% Indie
Pennsylvania - 31% Rep 58% Dem 8.6% Indie
Keep in mind that this data is based on party registration and doesn't actually tell us which person was voted for; it doesn't take into account cross-party voting and it gives no indication as to how independents are voting.
- Joined
- May 16, 2019
I went Googling around for old jokes about Puerto Ricans, but as you might suspect modern search engines are useless for that, especially in the wake of the Trump thing.
I did find an interesting article from 2022 though, covering Latinos and voting patterns by their specific place of birth. The whole thing is worth reading if you aren't familiar with the topic.
This graph shows the potential "fallout" of RandomComedianEdgyJokeGate:
Remember that's their proportion of Hispanic voters, not the general population. PR's are 14% of 12% nationally, or 1.6% overall. That's not nothing, but apply the usual voting turnout models and it starts getting down to a rounding error. (In Florida they're 27.5% of 20% statewide, or 5.5%, which is more significant.)
The article is a llittle too focused on Florida politics, but it gives this rundown of PRs:
So Trump may not have many PR votes to lose, if they were already going Democratic. I'm not sure how many of them buy the media line about Trump abandoning PR after the hurricane, and how many listen when he tells about all the aid he sent that got stashed away in warehouses by corrupt officials. I also don't know if that is still a primary concern 5 years later, especially with how Covid era housing prices hit the state. I don't think anyone is doing serious voting bloc polling this year, everyone seems to be hyper focused on the other swing states.
Could their 5.5% bloc in Florida matter? Maybe, but Trump is currently up about 6% in FL and they've been early voting for 3 days. Trump had record gains in Hispanic votes generally in 2020, and looks to be repeating it in 2024. When Democrats did a post-mortem of 2020, they basically found they were losing Florida Hispanics as a trend (and coped that it could be better for Dems if they only just got more Dem Hispanics... somehow.)
Remember that's their proportion of Hispanic voters, not the general population. PR's are 14% of 12% nationally, or 1.6% overall. That's not nothing, but apply the usual voting turnout models and it starts getting down to a rounding error. (In Florida they're 27.5% of 20% statewide, or 5.5%, which is more significant.)
The article is a llittle too focused on Florida politics, but it gives this rundown of PRs:
So Trump may not have many PR votes to lose, if they were already going Democratic. I'm not sure how many of them buy the media line about Trump abandoning PR after the hurricane, and how many listen when he tells about all the aid he sent that got stashed away in warehouses by corrupt officials. I also don't know if that is still a primary concern 5 years later, especially with how Covid era housing prices hit the state. I don't think anyone is doing serious voting bloc polling this year, everyone seems to be hyper focused on the other swing states.
Could their 5.5% bloc in Florida matter? Maybe, but Trump is currently up about 6% in FL and they've been early voting for 3 days. Trump had record gains in Hispanic votes generally in 2020, and looks to be repeating it in 2024. When Democrats did a post-mortem of 2020, they basically found they were losing Florida Hispanics as a trend (and coped that it could be better for Dems if they only just got more Dem Hispanics... somehow.)
TL;DR Between heavy Democratic support, island-specific policy concerns, and early voting, I'm not sure Trump had a lot of votes to lose over this outrage headline. That won't stop dickwads like CNN journos from trying to astroturf a "backlash", though.
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2019
babadook
kiwifarms.net
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- Dec 25, 2019
You get a 
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too
- Joined
- Jul 16, 2019
Did you know MSG hosted three DNCs? Was it a Nazi whistleblow? 
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- Mar 7, 2023
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- Jul 3, 2021
Electioneering laws are unconstitutional.
- Joined
- May 4, 2020
But they care, so that should be enough of a reason to bring back public executions.
Thank you! Ten awoos out of ten!
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2022
It may not tell you who they voted for, but it gives a idea of what's happening. Pennsylvania is going to be tight as always. Everything else looks like a sweep
- Joined
- May 16, 2019
I don't think it will matter electorally, but I'm looking forward to the regular entertainment value of it. Vance has the perfect personality to keep up and joke in a way that flows with Joe's style, no "weaving" like Trump does.
FlappyBat
kiwifarms.net
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- Dec 17, 2019
I'm more likely to watch this than either Trump's or a hypothetical Kamala appearance. Vance was the first person who made listening to Theo Von for more than 5 seconds manageable.
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