Severe Weather outbreaks

Update on yesterday's event.
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Big nothing-burger, but there was some wind I guess.
 
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Models are going ballistic on today's event in Oklahoma and surrounding areas. Saturday was worse than expected, so take today seriously if you're in the area.
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I'd be more concerned with the predicted QLCS forming ahead of the cold front, or particularly those tiny pockets forming over Arkansas more than anything. Lines themselves aren't particularly impressive outside of straightline winds and hail, with maybe a quick spin-up or two forming in isolated pockets here and there. Storms out ahead of a line and all by themselves, though? Those tend to the nastiest because they're not competing with any nearby storms for energy.

Here's hoping we see a case where the cold front catches up with the line of storms and undercuts them, like what's happened a number of times this last Spring already. A lot of warm air is certainly being pumped into the region out and ahead of this stuff, though, which isn't good.
 
Gravemind said:
I'd be more concerned with the predicted QLCS forming ahead of the cold front, or particularly those tiny pockets forming over Arkansas more than anything. Lines themselves aren't particularly impressive outside of straightline winds and hail, with maybe a quick spin-up or two forming in isolated pockets here and there. Storms out ahead of a line and all by themselves, though? Those tend to the nastiest because they're not competing with any nearby storms for energy.

Here's hoping we see a case where the cold front catches up with the line of storms and undercuts them, like what's happened a number of times this last Spring already. A lot of warm air is certainly being pumped into the region out and ahead of this stuff, though, which isn't good.
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The cold front is moving to the northeast and is oriented northeast, so the line of storms will appear to move slowly. The only thing stopping discrete storm development ahead of the line is whether they actually form or not, and not so much whether the cold front catches up or not.
 
#FF0000 said:
The cold front is moving to the northeast and is oriented northeast, so the line of storms will appear to move slowly. The only thing stopping discrete storm development ahead of the line is whether they actually form or not, and not so much whether the cold front catches up or not.
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Right, but I didn't say it would stop discrete storm development. What I was suggesting is that the cold front catching up with the line of storms would inhibit severe potential specifically for storms within the line itself, which, as I've pointed out in my original post, has been something that has occurred multiple times on previous severe weather days, typically during the last Spring and I believe a couple of times last Fall season as well.

It's a bit nonsensical to make the assumption that this would somehow have any effect on discrete storms that are... Well, discrete.
 
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An area of disturbed weather south of Jamaica has been designated as Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center, with a 60% chance of becoming TS Sara within 2 days and a 90% chance within 5 days. This storm has some concerning potential - wind shear is unusually low across the western Caribbean and southern Florida, and the heat content of the water is remarkably high.

For these reasons, some of the models are bullish - the latest operational run of the GFS has future=Sara making landfall next Wednesday near Fort Myers Beach as a category 3 hurricane. Some of the ensembles paint a similar picture;

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As do the latest ensembles from the European model;

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As you can see, if 99L can avoid making landfall somewhere in Central America or Mexico, there is the prospect of an unusually-strong November hurricane for southern Florida next week.
 
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Also a Super Moon on the 15th which itself won't do anything but it'll probably contribute in some way to whatever happens.
 
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12345 said:
Also a Super Moon on the 15th which itself won't do anything but it'll probably contribute in some way to whatever happens.
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Whenever the Moon is closest to Earth at either full moon or new moon, it causes higher than average tides. This effect is amplified when the Moon is at its perigee (closest distance) to Earth. If it also happens to be an equinox and the Sun, Moon, and Earth are aligned, then you get even greater tides. It also depends just how many hours the moment of perigee is to the full Moon.

So this probably won't do much since if you look at that chart, the Moon isn't at its closest and the full moon occurs a while after perigee.
 
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