US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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grump said:
Question: The plebbitosphere are pinning their hopes on a massive turnout gap in early voting between men and women and hoping that carries through to election day. When I googled available statistics the couple sources I could find do seem to point to a general 4pt gap between men and women's turnout in past elections.



Do the election predictions take this into account? Or is it not reliable data? Seems stupid not to if its true.
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Women have voted 4-6 points more than men in the last 20 years. Yet republicans won 3 (4) of those elections. It is already factored in, and Kamablah has a bigger deficit with men than Trump does with women, meaning anywhere for a 1-3 point bump to Trump overall.
 
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grump said:
Question: The plebbitosphere are pinning their hopes on a massive turnout gap in early voting between men and women and hoping that carries through to election day. When I googled available statistics the couple sources I could find do seem to point to a general 4pt gap between men and women's turnout in past elections.



Do the election predictions take this into account? Or is it not reliable data? Seems stupid not to if its true.
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It is absolutely already baked in to predictions. Everything I've seen has the right up in early voting compared to previous elections. If elections were close before and you go from 20% of early votes to 40% that is still a massive positive signal even if in raw numbers you are behind.
 
mlanguishi said:
Eric hinted this was coming, probably outlier. Is Echelon any good? I'm bad at knowing which of these pollsters are BS.
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I want this to be accurate ... Because that basically puts Trump over the margin of error/fraud, which basically hands him the election.

But yeah, I'd like confirmation on how legit this is.
 
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Mark Goldbridge said:
Sure, JD Vance is clearly a much better politican than Trump but Trump is a better businessman/president but I think this close to the election it doesn't really matter what Trump does as long as it isn't a huge gaffe. Say the same general things and make people remember that the economy is shit and it should be all good. JD can run offense/defense in the media for the rest of the time left.
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I think they both have their strengths and weaknesses. I wouldn't say I like Vance better than Trump for that reason.
My hope is that Trump will teach him the art of the deal and the skill needed to be president, what to watch out for, the snakes in DC, all of it.
I don't think Vance has the experience to know that stuff, especially diplomacy and trade deals.
They make a good team. Hopefully Vance will learn a lot and be ready for 2028. I don't think he is yet and not because he's bad. He just needs tutoring.
 
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Mark Goldbridge said:
tbh making a big deal of this is retarded
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If they can call Trump a failing geriatric for needing to hold onto a railing while walking on an icy ramp, then HE can do this. It's fair game.

Kamala apparently had her "big moment" the other night in DC, and she doesn't look at all jazzed about it afterwards. Body language does matter, and you'd think that after her "big moment," she'd be acting a bit more ... Lively? This comes across as "Okay, I'm done, get me the hell outta here."
 
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Amelia Troonheart said:
I think they both have their strengths and weaknesses. I wouldn't say I like Vance better than Trump for that reason.
My hope is that Trump will teach him the art of the deal and the skill needed to be president, what to watch out for, the snakes in DC, all of it.
I don't think Vance has the experience to know that stuff, especially diplomacy and trade deals.
They make a good team. Hopefully Vance will learn a lot and be ready for 2028. I don't think he is yet and not because he's bad. He just needs tutoring.
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It's been a while since the Republican nominee for President was the previous Vice President so would be a nice change. I see in 2028 the whole Republican party having a rift post Trump though if Trump's second term isn't super good.
 
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Burnt Effigy said:
Vance needs to be careful of how he speaks, this could be grounds for a defamation lawsuit.
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If Apple had the ability to legally do something about it I don't think they would because it will just become a bad publicity machine and they probably don't exactly want "Apple sues J.D. Vance for defamation over claims of slave workers in Xinjiang, China" in the headlines.
 
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StarkRavingMad said:
If they can call Trump a failing geriatric for needing to hold onto a railing while walking on an icy ramp, then HE can do this. It's fair game.

Kamala apparently had her "big moment" the other night in DC, and she doesn't look at all jazzed about it afterwards. Body language does matter, and you'd think that after her "big moment," she'd be acting a bit more ... Lively? This comes across as "Okay, I'm done, get me the hell outta here."
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Sure he can do this but again don't stoop to their level, there was something a few days ago where I felt the same. They're the petty and delusional nit picky ones.
 
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azure hours said:
First really prominent Millennial politician and not only does he not seem to be a fuck up, but is actually fucking great so far. Never would've bet on that.
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You wanna know the dirty secret? Vance was basically a libtard that could have been a Dem champion if they hadn't gone crazy with the woke stuff/hate white men. Dude actually believed the media stuff about Trump until he did his own research.
 
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Hassou Tobi said:
How are we feeling about Trump's chances?
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After seeing the mitigation efforts republicans are putting toward cheats this time I'm feeling pretty optimistic, I'd give it 70/30 odds he'll win. Abortion as an issue brings in turnout and mitigated the "red wave" of 2022, but trump also brings in good turnout so I think it cancels. I wouldn't bet my life savings on it but I would bet a lot of fun money.
 
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