US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[Jade Philosophies]

It's like poetry.

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It rhymes.

TFW you're going to lose an election.

 

[neger psykolog]

is this being done to hedge bets (literally) at the last minute? what's been causing this consistent drop over the course of the day?

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I wrote a post about how this is a "betting" market and not really a prediction market, so these changes aren't really representative of anything with certainty: https://kiwifarms.st/threads/us-politics-general.111266/page-8967#post-19698688

These "changes" also aren't even necessarily people changing their bet from A to B. One really important thing to also mention is that not everyone who is going to bet and has the money ready to do so and even has a belief is going to place their bets far in advance. Many people will wait until closer to the actual outcome. This is either because they want to see how the market is closer to the outcome, or because they are still undecided themselves.

Some particularly astute betters/predictors may use really novel forms of data and do their own kind of analysis for voter sentiment that can only really give them more confident indicators closer to the outcome - that, or people are swayed by figureheads who do their own analysis and release it much closer to the outcome and base their bets on that (I have seen much more opinions on what is happening with the election in the past day or so compared to just a week ago)

And there will definitely be many people trying to manipulate the markets however they can. Some people who do that are just after a tiny % of return and can do that by swaying the market however they can and then will exit their positions instead of actually putting their money at risk before the outcome.

 

[MirrorNoir]

Remember when SNL had a rendition of "To Sir With Love" as their opening when Obama's presidency ended. Cringeworthy stuff.

Comedy is supposed to challenge the establishment and social norms if it is going to be any good. SNL is the most milquetoast family friendly shite imaginable so i'm not surprised that Kamala the Robot is appearing on it.

The funniest thing about the show that they considered signing Shane Gillis a few years ago. Can you imagine putting him on a live stage with Harris?

Confusing shit

Kate Cunt McKinnon opened the episode after Trump won performing Hallelujah while in character as Hillary; the cringy TSWL hit with two of the black cast members to Obama was the episode after Obama formally left office and was dumped at the very end of that episode.

 

[The Nothingness]

However, a judge ruled Friday that Cobb County voters receiving their absentee ballots late can return them by Nov. 8, three days after Election Day, as long as they’re postmarked by Tuesday, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.

Why am I not surprised?

 

[The Last Stand]

Also unrelated to this if Trump wants to win he needs to hold a candle light vigil for that squirell immediately.

Did Trump himself find out or did somebody tell him?

 

[LurkTrawl]

1. People is vague. Die hard TDS simps? Yes, without hesitation.

2. Nobody in power cares. All that matters to the feds is that the majority of American sheeple keep thinking that anyone who suggests violence is a glowie and that they pay their taxes.

If that's your response then there's nothing more on the topic to be said between us, your mind is made up and that's fine. I understand where you're coming from.

But, if Trump does manage to win the election, I am going to mock you. I don't think he'll win, I expect Harris fraud to put her over and shit to descend into utter chaos. But I don't think it's because she's popular enough to be a legitimate threat, just fraud.

 

[Donald_J_Trump]

Why am I not surprised?

1 week after Nov. 5, ooooooo look at that, Kamala found just enough votes!

I love Democracy.

 

[mars]

I don't know enough about how political ad buys work to know if this is meaningful or not. Does anyone else?

Hey finally something I know about. This is odd. First of all stations have to give all political at the lowest rates they have and they pretty much have to prioritize political over any other commercials. Invoices come in after the end of the broadcast month which is the last Sunday in the month so the payment timing matches up. Invoices were generated this week. Assuming this is a media buying company the campaign should just be cutting one big check and the media company pays all the stations out of that check. Not sure why they'd cut a bunch of small checks. It could be a sign that they're running low on cash. However it could be several other things too. Maybe they're insisting on paying each invoice as it comes in or each station separately. I've heard of stranger things.

 

[Donald_J_Trump]

If that's your response then there's nothing more on the topic to be said between us, your mind is made up and that's fine. I understand where you're coming from.

But, if Trump does manage to win the election, I am going to mock you. I don't think he'll win, I expect Harris fraud to put her over and shit to descend into utter chaos. But I don't think it's because she's popular enough to be a legitimate threat, just fraud.

BRO IM FUCKING RIGHT THERE WITH YOU. She is a fraud, and I voted Trump. I hope you get to mock me. I do NOT want to be right, but I just can't ignore the writing on the wall.

 

[General Emílio Médici]

How the fuck do you be broke with over a BILLION in the bank?

A fool and their money are easily parted.

Another hysterical propaganda film.

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Lol. Lmao even. They really have no other argument do they?

 

[XYZpdq Jr.]

Hey finally something I know about. This is odd. First of all stations have to give all political at the lowest rates they have and they pretty much have to prioritize political over any other commercials. Invoices come in after the end of the broadcast month which is the last Sunday in the month so the payment timing matches up. Invoices were generated this week. Assuming this is a media buying company the campaign should just be cutting one big check and the media company pays all the stations out of that check. Not sure why they'd cut a bunch of small checks. It could be a sign that they're running low on cash. However it could be several other things too. Maybe they're insisting on paying each invoice as it comes in or each station separately. I've heard of stranger things.

could be something as simple as the accounting software on the station's end glitching on a big order, but it can do a single order, so fuck it this needs to be on the air in an hour so ring them up as single order

 

[CarlosDanger]

Richard Baris saying the Selzer poll was being passed around by Democrats at fundraisers and events yesterday. So she or someone she works for/with leaked it to the Democrats.

 

[Onepumpplumpchump]

You gotta be brave in your heart is the thing. In the face of uncertainty we need to walk foward calling out what is wrong and deceitful. I don't think people are going to take it lying down. But that's just my opinion.

 

[InteracialBowelSyndrome]

How the fuck do you be broke with over a BILLION in the bank? How much grift did the DNC leaches siphon off the Harris Campaign in less then 2 months?

My god...and this person is the possible next PotUS. Fuck us all

Paul Pelosi made sure to grab some cash for the next manwhore to "Hammer" his ass.

 

[World Famous Quasi Payer]

Lol. Lmao even. They really have no other argument do they?

I think its the best play they have at this point when you consider the following

1. Women vote more than men
2. Men are leaving the DNC in droves
3. The economy is on the verge of collapse
4. They're pro-troon, the RNC isn't

Its literally the best strategy they have to motivate their base to vote.

 

[LurkTrawl]

BRO IM FUCKING RIGHT THERE WITH YOU. She is a fraud, and I voted Trump. I hope you get to mock me. I do NOT want to be right, but I just can't ignore the writing on the wall.

The wall you're reading is Plato's Cave nigga go outside.

I really do get your position but seriously go meander around the internet, even. It's clear she's as popular as breast cancer.
E:

Looks like somebody is spending their last lifeline.

This is not the actions of someone who is going to survive stealing an election.

This is my point.

 

[CarlosDanger]

 

[StarkRavingMad]

Wow. Wow wow wow.

Looks like somebody is spending their last lifeline.

 

[Sic Semper Tyrannosaurus]

Iowa demographic is identical to Wisconsin faggot.

The only identical demographic between the two is both states know everyone from Illinois is a nigger who has to go back . Iowa is pretty much what people would consider a Southern state but in the North, they even enacted constitutional carry in 2021. Wisconsin spends their time toeing the line of being complete shitlibs but maintains a Republican majority in the Senate who fight with the faggot governor Tony Evers constantly. I think they did redistricting recently so that may change in upcoming elections.

Kim Reynolds (Iowa governor) also told them to fuck off with a mask mandate while Evers enforced one. WI might go red but definitely don't expect it to because IA does. IA is pretty cool, WI is only not the faggiest state because three of the four it shares borders with are gayer.

 

[neger psykolog]

I wrote a post about how this is a "betting" market and not really a prediction market, so these changes aren't really representative of anything with certainty: https://kiwifarms.st/threads/us-politics-general.111266/page-8967#post-19698688

These "changes" also aren't even necessarily people changing their bet from A to B. One really important thing to also mention is that not everyone who is going to bet and has the money ready to do so and even has a belief is going to place their bets far in advance. Many people will wait until closer to the actual outcome. This is either because they want to see how the market is closer to the outcome, or because they are still undecided themselves.

Some particularly astute betters/predictors may use really novel forms of data and do their own kind of analysis for voter sentiment that can only really give them more confident indicators closer to the outcome - that, or people are swayed by figureheads who do their own analysis and release it much closer to the outcome and base their bets on that (I have seen much more opinions on what is happening with the election in the past day or so compared to just a week ago)

And there will definitely be many people trying to manipulate the markets however they can. Some people who do that are just after a tiny % of return and can do that by swaying the market however they can and then will exit their positions instead of actually putting their money at risk before the outcome.

Sorry to quote myself, but I think its a very worthy addition to point out here. A very good example of how placing your bet too early could fuck you over is that anyone who voted Biden as the election winner before he dropped out would've lost part/all of their money.

So placing bets early can result in higher gains but it can also be more risky depending on what happens. Certainly in clown world era elections, where a single video or conference clip could dramatically change the course of the election outcome, placing bets too early may be too risky for many people.

edit: I also forgot to add that some people may exit the market closer to the outcome because they fear volatility or an uncertain outcome. They may have already made some gains or losses on their initial bets and decided to reduce or remove their bets entirely. Those kind of people may have no actual interest in the election or US politics whatsoever and are purely playing money games.