US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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Nate Kikever's model keeps flip-flopping and being inconsistent all the fucking time.

https://xcancel.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1853217620503167252 / https://archive.is/wip/KIPKh
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https://xcancel.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1853236584398623193 / https://archive.is/wip/C7tA4
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Just for reference, he thinks Kamala is being underreported.
An underreported democrat in the 21st century.

https://xcancel.com/NateSilver538/status/1853123659470188642 / https://archive.is/wip/fHW0J

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He's hacking his own models in the way he thinks is right because he's missing data.
Professional statistician, everyone.

https://xcancel.com/NateSilver538/status/1853123661823398140 / https://archive.is/wip/pPP3j
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StarkRavingMad said:
I don't know what livestream I'm going to watch on Election Night. I might actually just have a movie on in the background or listen to music while I read updates.

If Trump wins, though, I am immediately turning the tv on to watch the MSM have a collective commie temper tantrum.

I want to watch the sequel to "This Is A Whitelash."
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If Trump wins I'll be awaiting the compilations of liberal tears on YouTube. We are The Champions will of course be on loop in the background.
 
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Burnt Effigy said:
Video file for added context:

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Thanks for the links, I did not in fact get around to watching Trump on Joe Rogan.

ForgedBlades said:
I don't want to dox myself too much, but trust me when I say that Iowa is not going blue. I would be absolutely floored if he won the state by less than eight points.
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My argument is this is more to build a narrative instead of showing reality. If Iowa went blue it would be because they rigged it and then pointed to Abortion and claim there was a 200% flip by all Iowan woman voters to democrat. In panic they're going to take refuge in audacity and force it through.
 
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HodgePodgeRogerDodger said:
What does that map look like? The most pro-Harris map is like 280 at best. This sounds like they just made Bush v Gore again.
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Ngl I am rooting for 269 / 269

If this happens, it will be DOUBLE the fun of 2016 election night.

People will leave work crying because it will happen during the daytime and MTGs smug face will be all over the TV screens.

The senate will retaliate and install Walz as VP but it's worth it.
 
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Nuns with guns said:
At this point it wouldn’t surprise me if Kamala is forced to cancel an event either tomorrow or Tuesday because she’s drunk.

Maybe they’ll just give her a shit ton of cocaine and see if that helps balance things out.
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Nah, I don't see that happening; not when she's booked to be rubbing elbows with a handful of celebrities, after all.

If she loses on Election Night, though, I wholeheartedly predict that she will duck a concession speech entirely. Not even a delayed one like Hillary did after her post-loser bender. She's just flat-out not going to do it unless it's pre-recorded and shown several days later.
 
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Nod Flenders said:
I just have a good feeling about Tuesday.

Can Kamala steal it? It's possible. Am I prepared if that happens? Yes. Do I think it will happen? Probably not. The way her campaign is acting, they don't act like a campaign that is winning. The early voting numbers look good for the Republicans, the voters seem energized, and I know they usually will turn up on election day.

The Doomers are trying to tell you it's worthless and don't vote. Don't listen to them. Go out and vote.
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Like I've said before, it legit feels like the DNC heads collectively realized that Trump winning was probably a better outcome for them than being stuck with Harris if she won. So they're probably not going to pull any favors to get her over the line like they did Biden in 2020. If she wins they'll accept it as a victory of course, but her being in office derails their plans for 2028 and probably costs them congress in 2026, so a Pyrrhic victory at best.

The fraud we're seeing is likely just the baseline fraud that's just nature taking its course after put compromised people into positions to enable the 2020 fraud. They're doing what comes naturally to them and can't really be turned off, but also aren't being given any real direction by the DNC leadership or extra assurances of legal aide if it all blows up in their face. Similar to that rainbow haired chick that kicked Trump off Twitter back in the day; put a nutjob in a position of power, you'll get nutjob behavior, even if the party leaders are wincing at the bad optics and poor timing.

This is probably why we're seeing very open lukewarm support for Kameltoe by many in the media, nobody in real power is complaining about the Clintons and Biden sabotaging her, and various people in the party are talking about how they'll work with the Trump administration.
 
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Nuns with guns said:
I think it wasn’t even this bad in 2016.
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Oh no, it was bad in 2016.

You all these celebrities and organisations basically rip the mask off, destroy their credibility and their objectivity just to come out against Trump and what happened? Nothing. Nothing happened to these people. Their selfish, spoiled lives all continued pretty much as usual.

If anything it's better now because their credibility has been pretty well destroyed and nobody with any sense actually cares what these people think any more.
 
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George Lucas said:
overweighting demographics
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I bet those demographics are overweight, alright.

#lurker said:
Can someone give me the steel-man argument why a pollster wouldn't know what "D" and "R" represent?
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You spent decades working with a certain formatting and nomenclature for your data. When first glancing at someone else's formatting, things don't look at all the way you're used to, it's late at night, you're tired, you're old, it's not immediately obvious what things are supposed to mean in this alien formatting you've never seen before. And you're a woman.
 
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Burnt Effigy said:
Just for reference, he thinks Kamala is being underreported.
An underreported democrat in the 21st century
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Remember that this is the latest NPC programming. CNN ran a copium poll a week ago claiming Kamala was underreported and predicting a possible Dem landslide. It’s probably where that Seltzer whore got the idea from.
 
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I’m still betting on abortion not being the winning issue for Democrats. If they were able to create a better economy, strong border, or even just not overspending tax dollars, then they’d have a much easier time gaining traction. They don’t have any of that, and the strong focus on abortion is because there’s literally not much else to run on. They had four years to show Americans they were decent leaders, but are the exact opposite. I’m sure there are some types that are single issue voters with abortion, but based on surveys of overall concerns, inflation and the border are way bigger issues.
 
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HodgePodgeRogerDodger said:
What does that map look like? The most pro-Harris map is like 280 at best. This sounds like they just made Bush v Gore again.
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The numbers don't add to 538. My guess is that these EC totals are based on an expected value calculation given each candidate's probability of winning each state and then rounding to the nearest integer. About a month ago, Silver had Kamala with an expected EC haul over 270 despite his models predicting (at the time) a 54% chance of a Trump victory. Mathematically speaking, this isn't a contradiction, but it illustrates how blindly reading the top-line of a report can be misleading.
 
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