Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Former Wagnerites or now former Russian Expeditionary Corps

 

[QQQ]

Total cultural victory.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

Now, the preferred second-strike is a balistic missile sub, a SSBN. But Russia only in their most recent generation of subs got the ability to launch submerged. Which means in a USSR/US exchange their sub would need to surface to fire, where it would be extremely vulnerable and detectable. The soviet response to this was to deploy a surface fleet for cover, but that ruins the stealth aspect.

Point of contention. Soviet (and Russian) doctrine relies on surface cover in the arctic and surrounding areas so you will unlikely see a 667 off the coast of say, Australia. That and the SOSUS array would mean it would probably be tracked somewhat loosely. There's a reason the largest VMF non-carrier surface combatant has a nuclear tipped (rocket launched) depth charges for flattening any suspected sub contacts for a reason and is notionally assigned to the Northern Fleet along with 5 out of the 6 active older 667s.

Also, newer tech is more efficient in tracking subs. Instead of MAD, SAD (Specific Gravity Anomaly detectors) are much more effective (you still need to fly over the sub though) and newer thermal satellites can track the rise of the thermal trail used to cool sub reactors.

Nuke forces fail readiness drills, and its due to something that was done counter to that service's head object, the person who gave that order over those objections would be in for a very bad time.

Rail incompetence is immediately apparent versus nuclear incompetence short of a (non-nuclear) catastrophic failure like when the US lost an entire silo from two retards dropping a ratchet wrench (which also caught fire and killed like 50+ people before that lmao, talk about bad luck).
I'm convinced the reason that they "upgraded" to the R-29RMU on the 667s was because of the atrocious record of launch failures in attempting to convert it to a space launch unit.

A situation may not rise to that level. For example, if NATO and USSR had fought an open proxy war for say Kenya, if the US lobbed a nuke into the Soviet supply port, that would be unlikely to escalate (immediately) into missiles launched at home turfs. Russia might respond by nuking NATO AFRICOM HQ, but it would be limited high value targets because Kenya wouldn't be an existential war - loss in Kenya would not be the end for NATO or USSR.
Of course people are retarded and it could spiral, but assuming no one wants to go all the way.

And Putin is more likely to be given the Berria treatment by the Kremlin toadies if he even thought about finding out. At the end of the day the land grab in Ukraine is not worth gambling the entire existence of the Russian people over.

The question is if Russia (not just Putin, but the entire upper echelon) consider Ukraine to be an "existential threat". Khrushchev backed down and blinked over Cuba, and got tossed out by leadership as a result. But if intelligence agencies (FSB, SVU) and the military both see Ukraine joining NATO as the "existential threat" and "not a nation" as Putin proclaims then such a coup is unlikely.

 

[Ghostse]

Point of contention. Soviet (and Russian) doctrine relies on surface cover in the arctic and surrounding areas so you will unlikely see a 667 off the coast of say, Australia. That and the SOSUS array would mean it would probably be tracked somewhat loosely. There's a reason the largest VMF non-carrier surface combatant has a nuclear tipped (rocket launched) depth charges for flattening any suspected sub contacts for a reason and is notionally assigned to the Northern Fleet along with 5 out of the 6 active older 667s.

Also, newer tech is more efficient in tracking subs. Instead of MAD, SAD (Specific Gravity Anomaly detectors) are much more effective (you still need to fly over the sub though) and newer thermal satellites can track the rise of the thermal trail used to cool sub reactors.

The US has enough Los Angeles class attack subs to assign two to each Russian boomer - including the ones in dry dock - and still have idle subs.

My point was that the US treats their subs as threats lurking off any coast they damn well please to lurk. Russia treats theirs as mobile silos.

Rail incompetence is immediately apparent versus nuclear incompetence

To your point it does assume regular readiness drills, etc. But given the leadership was competent and would be invested in remaining competent, it is still very likely they have resisted decline.

The question is if Russia (not just Putin, but the entire upper echelon) consider Ukraine to be an "existential threat". Khrushchev backed down and blinked over Cuba, and got tossed out by leadership as a result. But if intelligence agencies (FSB, SVU) and the military both see Ukraine joining NATO as the "existential threat" and "not a nation" as Putin proclaims then such a coup is unlikely.

Ukraine is an existential battle for Putin, not Russia. If Putin decides to activate his nukes, its very likely he gets coup'ed. But I don't think it ever comes to that; Putin won't life forever even if he doesn't get Soviet'd.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

A nuclear exchange is specifically designed to fuck up as much infrastructure as possible in as many places as possible.

Not with air bursts which most nukes are set to. Ground bursting nukes are for harden things like sub pens, command bunkers like Cheyenne Mountain.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

Ukraine is an existential battle for Putin, not Russia. If Putin decides to activate his nukes, its very likely he gets coup'ed. But I don't think it ever comes to that; Putin won't life forever even if he doesn't get Soviet'd.

With the Wagner mutiny I'm not so convinced it'll be as smooth as you think it is. The VVS and the VV were at least loyal enough to Putin to fight, while the army was apathetic. Probably another round of the Russian Civil War is the most logical conclusion.

 

[N Space]

Not with air bursts which most nukes are set to. Ground bursting nukes are for harden things like sub pens, command bunkers like Cheyenne Mountain.

Air bursts have a larger blast radius so yes, they are specifically made to destroy as much shit as possible.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

Air bursts have a larger blast radius so yes, they are specifically made to destroy as much shit as possible.

And without much or if any fallout as compared to ground bursts Hollywood and it's foreign equivalents love showing nuclear detonations in their films and TV shows.

 

[Jewthulhu]

We are playing the world's most retarded game of I'm-not-touching-you, where if we win we get nothing, and if we lose it ends all life on earth.

Or maybe I'm just not smart enough for geopolitics.

What we're doing is not much different than what we did during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, or what the Soviets did during the Korean and Vietnam wars (less than that, even). The main difference is Russian brinksmanship (constantly invoking the specter of nuclear war).

Nuclear dick-waving isn't meant to intimidate people at the top, but ignorant citizens.

It's meant to intimidate both. Now, people at the top likely have more of an education on brinksmanship, but it's still meant to intimidate them and influence decision-making based on uncertainty.

The USSR could not win a Nuclear exchange against the US, ever. Not even when they arguably had the power balance in the late 50's/early 60s (before Mao decided the Politboro was fake and gay after his mancrush Stalin died) they didn't have the bomber fleet to challenge the USAF.

The USSR's nuclear advantage against the US was in the late 70s-80s, mainly based on stockpile size.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

The USSR was allowed to have a larger stockpile as NATO knew about Soviet quality workmanship in putting together their nukes.

 

[BlackDragoons]

The USSR was allowed to have a larger stockpile as NATO knew about Soviet quality workmanship in putting together their nukes.

Between the absolute corruption and graft of the USSR/Federation the stockpiles are probably badly maintained and I doubt a good chunk of those missile will even launch let alone detonate.

 

[Ghostse]

The USSR's nuclear advantage against the US was in the late 70s-80s, mainly based on stockpile size.

Even in the 70s and 80s they had more warheads but those warheads still had issues reaching out and touching the continental US. All their stock was bombs (The US had jets capable of intercepting soviet bombers by that time) or SRBM/IRMB and very few true ICBMs with even fewer that had the range needed to get to a US state that does not have a coastline.

Up through the middish 60s, when high altitude bombers were nearly immune to any threats once at operating altitude, Russia would have been able to strike deep into the US (even if it was a one-way flight). once the F-15 was "a thing" Russian bombers were really no longer a threat to the lower 48 and that cut off a lot of Russia's long-range reach.

With the Wagner mutiny I'm not so convinced it'll be as smooth as you think it is. The VVS and the VV were at least loyal enough to Putin to fight, while the army was apathetic. Probably another round of the Russian Civil War is the most logical conclusion.

I guess what I'm saying is I think if Putin tried to order a nuke strike over ukraine its more likely the Strategic Forces general opts to not relay the order and more likely triggers events that topple putin or at least start a civil war.
Putin is currently kept in power by playing Crab Bucket games; his #2 is a bootlicking toadie, he just practically exiled #3 and everyone else knows that if they tried to take out Putin, even if they succeeded, they would likely end up with a knife in their back before Putin stopped twitching. However, "If we don't take out this mother fucker they are going bomb us and our dachas" is the sort of thing that gets people make alliances of enlighted self interest.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

I guess what I'm saying is I think if Putin tried to order a nuke strike over ukraine its more likely the Strategic Forces general opts to not relay the order and more likely triggers events that topple putin or at least start a civil war.
Putin is currently kept in power by playing Crab Bucket games; his #2 is a bootlicking toadie, he just practically exiled #3 and everyone else knows that if they tried to take out Putin, even if they succeeded, they would likely end up with a knife in their back before Putin stopped twitching. However, "If we don't take out this mother fucker they are going bomb us and our dachas" is the sort of thing that gets people make alliances of enlighted self interest.

At least for Crimea I can see the Russians coming back to fight over it in 10-20 years. After all, they spent four plus centuries fighting the Turks over it up until 1921 with Turkey.

Though right now, Russia is in the running for the sick man of Europe alongside Turkey and maybe German/Italy (Europe seems to be suffering through general economic malaise in general right now, as much of the world).

 

[Ghostse]

Turkey and maybe German

Why did you list Turkey and their colony separately?

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Reportedly Storm Shadow missiles flying over the Kursk region. November 2024:

 

[mindlessobserver]

Reportedly Storm Shadow missiles flying over the Kursk region. November 2024:
View attachment 6675313

3 years into the 2 week Special Mitary Operation in the Dombass. Ukraine sending Cruise Missiles into Russia to blow up military bases was always part of the plan.

In other news, Denmark has denied the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3 permission to transit the Baltic Straits. The vessel is now surrounded by Danish and Swedish warships but both countries are tight lipped about what precisely they are doing, or even if the Chinese flagged vessel is ordered to stop "under the guns of a warship".

https://www.voanews.com/a/chinese-vessel-suspected-of-severing-submarine-cables-still-anchored-in-baltic-sea-/7873826.html

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

The question is if Russia (not just Putin, but the entire upper echelon) consider Ukraine to be an "existential threat". Khrushchev backed down and blinked over Cuba, and got tossed out by leadership as a result. But if intelligence agencies (FSB, SVU) and the military both see Ukraine joining NATO as the "existential threat" and "not a nation" as Putin proclaims then such a coup is unlikely.

I think it's actually more of a fringe idea, mostly popularized by Putin himself to justify the invasion as part of his campaign to restore "rightful" borders of Russia when it was still USSR.
Because it makes no fucking sense otherwise. We still border multiple NATO countries, and that would still be the case even if Ukraine became part of Russia.
While Ukraine provides convenient path from Europe to the center of Russia in the scenario of land invasion, it's 21st century and warfare has changed drastically since the last time Russia was properly invaded. US is more than capable of projecting its power throughout the globe, for one. While it's still important, it doesn't guarantee Russia's safety.
And judging by Russia's performance in this war so far, it wouldn't have helped much anyway in that scenario. Not that it was going to happen... because nukes.

Considering it's all bullshit to begin with, I seriously doubt a lot of people in the upper echelon are buying it themselves. Though Putin would certainly try to surround himself with like-minded people.

In other news, Denmark has denied the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3 permission to transit the Baltic Straits. The vessel is now surrounded by Danish and Swedish warships but both countries are tight lipped about what precisely they are doing, or even if the Chinese flagged vessel is ordered to stop "under the guns of a warship".

https://www.voanews.com/a/chinese-vessel-suspected-of-severing-submarine-cables-still-anchored-in-baltic-sea-/7873826.html

Good, fuck them

 

[Ghostse]

3 years into the 2 week Special Mitary Operation in the Dombass. Ukraine sending Cruise Missiles into Russia to blow up military bases was always part of the plan.

Simply building the cauldroon, comrade.

 

[-Jack-]

In other news, Denmark has denied the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3 permission to transit the Baltic Straits. The vessel is now surrounded by Danish and Swedish warships but both countries are tight lipped about what precisely they are doing, or even if the Chinese flagged vessel is ordered to stop "under the guns of a warship".

https://www.voanews.com/a/chinese-vessel-suspected-of-severing-submarine-cables-still-anchored-in-baltic-sea-/7873826.html

Good. It’s about time Europe pulls out their finger and does shit

 

[Hatter]

This is Alexey Milchakov, the leader of the Rusich group and a possible war criminal. He came to prominence in the early 2010s when he filmed himself torturing and decapitating a puppy. He had previously expressed support for the murder and torture of children, homeless people, and animals on his VK page. He is also believed to be involved in the Wagner sledgehammer video, which shows a Syrian army deserter being tortured with a sledgehammer and ultimately dismembered. He later publicly called for sacrifices against Ukrainian soldiers and has affiliations with O9A and serial killer cults.
Some ziggers think we should support such individuals instead of Ukraine because Ukraine briefly had a tranny spokesman, according to the other thread.