2024 Syrian opposition offensives - The first Syrian rebel offensive against Government forces since March 2020

draggs said:
Temporary tacticope
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They are busting out the good stuff.
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Once the high wears off, please be ready to submit your forms.
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draggs said:
>gibberish
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Stop confusing me for your mother, I'm sure she'll show up any day now after walking out on you. I would have too if my son had been a drooling special ed babby.

Syria Happenings for 5 December 2024, Boden's Dementia Pique, ME edition:
  • The Pentagon is preparing for the possible evacuation of American units from Syria amid the advance of terrorists. Apparently the recent attack by the Arab SDF units with air and artillery support from the US forces was a complete failure.
  • Hezbollah offers help to Syria: Group’s leader has accused the US and Israel of supporting jihadists in Syria and called on Arab nations to support Damascus. Hezbollah will help Syria fight back jihadists and is calling on Arab countries to support Damascus in its battle, Naim Qassem, the acting leader of the Lebanese militant group, said in a speech on Thursday.
  • قائد عمليات تحرير الدونباس بالقوات المسلحة الروسية يصل إلى قاعدة حميميم في اللاذقية على رأس مجموعة من كبار
    ضباط العمليات البرية و الجوية و الصاروخية الروسية.
    Translation:
    The commander of the Donbass liberation operations of the Russian Armed Forces arrives at the Hmeimim base in Latakia at the head of a group of senior officers of the Russian ground, air and missile operations.

Things are about to get very spicy while zogniks do this:

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STALKER CHILDREN I AM NOT LOSING, it is YOU who is losing! ZOG is winning, Assad/Putin/YOU will hang! ENJOY prison stalker child!
:story:
 
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Actually loosing two major cities with barely a fight is all part of the plan. The counterattack is coming and it can't go wrong since it was planned by Hezbollah's pager procurement unit. Those folks know what they are doing.

Also the Russian air force while not carrying yesterday or the day before will certainly carry now unless they run out of vodka crates first.

Truly, the West and its Allies have no shot against geniuses like that. Though I am still trying to figure out how the US factors into a Turkish backed militia making the Ottoman empire great again.
 
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Mound Dweller said:
Alright I'm gonna call it this is the fall of Kabul moment.
If Homs/Hama are both gone within the next 72 hours then Assad will be getting a gaddafi prostate exam by the end of the month.
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Theoretically, even if Damascus falls Assad can still hole up in the coastal provinces with Russian support (Tartus naval base). Said coast is protected by a mountain range and is also where most of the Alawites, his people & the foundation of his power, live. Ashraf Ghani didn't have such a thing in Afghanistan and while the Massoud clan did (the Panjshir valley), it was much smaller & easily surrounded compared to Latakia.

But yeah, it's looking pretty grim for him right now. Homs actually used to be the site of major rebel activity early in the war, but those rebels had seemed to be decisively crushed by the SAA + Hezbollah in 2013-2014. (IIRC, the battle for al-Qusayr near the southwestern border was actually one of the first big successes of Hezbollah's intervention.) If Homs were to now fall, and fall quickly at that, it would be no less surreal than seeing the same happen with Aleppo & Hama. Since it falling would also cut Damascus off from Latakia, Assad would have to make his choice immediately afterward: either try to stay & defend the capital (he will certainly be Gaddafi'd by the jihadis if he loses and doesn't kill himself) or catch a flight to Latakia while he still can (almost certainly guarantees Damascus will fall with a whimper, SAA morale has clearly gone down the shitter already, their leader bailing on them will cause it to sink beneath the deepest sewers of Damascus & toward the core of the Earth - this also means a partition of the country becomes 99% certain).

So frankly, if Assad wants to have any chance at ruling more than just Alawistan on the coast by the time Trump is re-inaugurated, he's got to do everything he can to hold Homs. The million dollar question (because the Syrian lira is worthless, it's at something like 28% inflation and 1 USD = 17,500 of it IIRC) is whether 'everything he still has' would be sufficient, any more than it was at Hama or Aleppo.
 
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It really looks like the greater powers have decided its the right time to make it impossible for Assad, with Israel going after the Lebanon-Syria crossing, Turkey doing this buildup in the first place.
You have an uprising near the border of Jordan, SDF occupying former Syrian positions while being attacked by Turkey, and The US hitting Iranian targets in the Southeast. Even ISIS is back.
Last time this happened, it cost the SAA 100k troops, and really it was only the Russian intervention, air superiority, and a handful of effective units that made it work.
The timing is perfectly in tune with Israel's operations against Hamas and Hezbollah, the outcome of the election, the state of the war in Ukraine, and the total amount of people and resources used up in the last 14 years.
I doubt that Assad is going to be able to maintain this, at this rhythm, because it looks like the sharks see blood in the water, and are all capitalizing on that.
Lots of people online cheering the results, they got rid of the dictator, without really addressing how its going to escalate if/when Assad's power goes.
 
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Rebels haven't just been pushing southward, to the east they've pushed toward the crossroads at Ithriya and captured more equipment from the routing SAA. Back in the Hama area, they've taken yet more SyAAF planes in the city's military airbase and also filmed themselves in Mhardeh (one of the large Christian towns west of Hama along with Suqaylabiyah) - probably not much point to the SAA trying to still hold those towns now, if they even still could, with Homs in danger.

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In other news, as part of Al-Jolani's continued charm offensive, he is now reportedly considering choosing Hanna Jallouf - a Catholic bishop who he kidnapped all the way back in 2014 and later released when HTS was still called Al-Nusra - to be his new governor of Aleppo. Hilarious if true, and would be even more unimaginable than HTS successfully blitzing Aleppo itself if it were to actually happen.

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draggs said:
>Slovenly slattern posts nonsense about jihadis are stopped outside Hama, situation is great for Assad
>Hama falls literally less than 24 hours later
>Slovenly slattern posts nonsense about joint Iraqi-Iranian expeditionary force riding to the rescue of Assad

I am now fully expecting Iraq and Iran to announce tomorrow that they have beheaded the Syrian foreign minister in the middle of Al-Tahrir Square, are declaring war on the Assad government, an alliance with Turkey and the jihadis has been signed, a demand that all Russian forces leave Syria, and a peace deal between Iran and both Israel and the USA has been signed. The reverse Midas touch game of the slovenly slattern is stronk af
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You forgot the best part: they describe the situation as "fluid", which everyone the least bit familiar with military euphemisms automatically translates as "Shit's so fucked we've gone beyond FUBAR".

You know, like that one Russian combat engineer who tried to warn a buddy about the mines he had just laid, got splattered across the front of the vehicle for his troubles, only for said driver to hit one of those mines in his obvious carelessness and blow up.
 
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Snekposter said:
You forgot the best part: they describe the situation as "fluid", which everyone the least bit familiar with military euphemisms automatically translates as "Shit's so fucked we've gone beyond FUBAR".
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lmao but that's what war is 99% of the time until shit happens, and territory changes hands multiple times until one group can secure and defend. Way to out yourself as an internet war tourist cheering on your favorite sportsball team. :story:
 
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draggs said:
Sir this is a Syrian Wendy's

No idea why you keep mentioning Ukraine anyway when victorious Russia has averaged 3 miles a month advance this entire year lol

Tell us more about this Roach-Russia deal and all the new things you came up with in the last 72 hours after all the old things fell almost as fast as Aleppo and Hama

You have an interesting cope cycle

1. It isn't happening
2. It is happening but only a little
3. It is happening but it will be reversed soon
4. It happened but it won't happen again
5. Return to 1
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Alright screenshot this the SNA or SDF wont take Russia's air base or naval base. If they do with physical proof online that they did I will be a bigger Russian anti than the Jews on the pro-ukraine thread. Main points for this confidence.

1)Since the beginning to this present day the Ukrainians have always gotten themselves encirlced and the Russians have retreated multiple times when they needed to. Military tactics 101 on getting encircled we know which side has received the most casualties beside one of them having 10 times the superior firepower advantage. Sources say few days ago that the Russian Navy left but yesterday they fired missiles from the coast of Tartus. The masters of retreating still not retreating or getting their soldiers out of the country suggests there is a limit to how far the militants can get or preplanned negotiations with another country like Turkey leading the militants

2) Russia, Iran and Turkey held a meeting when the situation broke out in Syria and the Turks leading the militants have indeed followed Russia's request to return the soldiers from the military academy. If one supporting militants and the other supporting the SAA are trading soldiers upon the others request, there definitely had to be a preplanned negotiation.

The only unknown variable is the US whom are begging for a negotiation process which I guess is currently not happening so I guess we might transition to dropping Ukraine for Syria next under Trump's term.

On with the news to not make this place look like another pro-Ukraine hugbox thread.
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