Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Fapcop]

Good news for all naval-autist comrades!

Nuclear cruiser Admiral Nakhimov is almost ready to be taken out for a test run and will re-enter service next year.



It’s a 250 meter 25.000 ton Kirov class Nuclear cruiser. Originally constructed in the 1980ies, it has gone through an extensive modernization and has among with brand new sensors and AA weapons, also been equipped with Zirkon hypersonic missiles.

It’s also fucking SEXY and one of my fave modern ships. Just look at that bow.

Fellow naval geeks know what I mean.

 

[The Foxtrot]

Could anybody give me some concrete refutations to the "RUZZIA HAS LOST 500,000 TROOPS!!" shit? Because I am desperately trying to convince my friend group that I'm not a "contrarian" for not going full SLAVA UKRAININININININI.

 

[Keystone]

Could anybody give me some concrete refutations to the "RUZZIA HAS LOST 500,000 TROOPS!!" shit? Because I am desperately trying to convince my friend group that I'm not a "contrarian" for not going full SLAVA UKRAININININININI.

Won't matter what you post, because they've made up their minds. The "trustworthy" media they wholeheartedly believe and listen to has been doing this for 2+ years and will continue to do so regardless of the final outcome:

 

[Haftag]

Oi! Hungary will fall soon, but we and the rest of the slavs held out into the 21st century.

Georgia will be the next fight for (((Our Dumbokcracy!!!))) where the US arms their glownigger lead rebels? Ukraine reverse boogaloo 2.0

Gimme the can but I don't see the relevance here.

 

[Betonhaus]

Could anybody give me some concrete refutations to the "RUZZIA HAS LOST 500,000 TROOPS!!" shit? Because I am desperately trying to convince my friend group that I'm not a "contrarian" for not going full SLAVA UKRAININININININI.

You could show them a thousand pictures of dogs to prove they exist and they would claim their all pictures of cats. At this point the propaganda is so deep that they are trained to ignore and reject anything that is a legitimate source solely on the grounds that they disagree with it's claims. That's why anyone who raises concerns get cancelled and rejected, even if they were considered a very trustworty source up to that point.

You can see it in the other thread. Long time members who gobbled the hohol cock get banned the moment they go "wait, this is actually looking pretty bad"

 

[Legalize Asbestos]

Could anybody give me some concrete refutations to the "RUZZIA HAS LOST 500,000 TROOPS!!" shit? Because I am desperately trying to convince my friend group that I'm not a "contrarian" for not going full SLAVA UKRAININININININI.

They will just spin whatever you give them.

For example, a good signal is the number of POWs, which last I checked is a 5:1 ratio in Russia's favour. But they will just say 'that's because Ukraine is hardcore! No Russians survive to be taken prisoner!

Lately even in exchanging the dead, the ratio has approached 5:1. ...but they would just say these numbers are a lie.
If they had two brain-cells to rub together, they might say Russians - being so evil - are digging up cemeteries, and Ukraine is bartering for these defiled bodies, hence the discrepancy. But they are not intelligent or creative enough for that kind of mental gymnastics.

 

[The Foxtrot]

Won't matter what you post, because they've made up their minds. The "trustworthy" media they wholeheartedly believe and listen to has been doing this for 2+ years and will continue to do so regardless of the final outcome:
View attachment 6726550

Sadly I think you're right. These dudes actually believe that 1) the "sanctions" have done anything, 2) that the Russian people still enjoying a cheap cost of living is somehow not a refutation of "the sanctions work!", and 3) that "western intelligence agencies" claiming 500,000 Russian casualties might as well be "The crack pipe said so!".

Yet when I ask "Well what engagements would result in 500,000 casualties in almost 3 years of conflict?", I never get a definitive answer beyond "Well we know Russians always take casualties". Hell the only engagement I can think of where there would have even been a lot of casualties would have been the Siege of Bakhmut Artemvosk, but even then the bulk of the casualties on the Russian side were taken by Wagner using convicts to break through the Ukrainian defenses.

"The Russians have over 800,000 active in theater and they can actively replenish troops. That's why 500,000 casualties doesn't render them combat ineffective!", says one. To which I asked if he actually thought that the majority of Russian society would accept such an insane body count, and he responded with a bunch of unrelated nonsense about how Siberians are poor and the payout for 1 dead soldier is a decade's worth of pay.

But when I bring up how Russian guys that I actively talk to and am friends with can give their personal stories on how the average Russian is actually just fine...nope, "anecdote".

It's tiresome.

 

[Black Spruce]

But when I bring up how Russian guys that I actively talk to and am friends with can give their personal stories on how the average Russian is actually just fine...nope, "anecdote".

Only overt, blatant, humiliating mockeries of their positions tends to do anything. Like when twitch banned that Russian guy for streaming 24/7 with his gas stove burners on to mock Europe for their energy crisis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu0I_O8mRWI

 

[Male Idiot]

Good news for all naval-autist comrades!

Nuclear cruiser Admiral Nakhimov is almost ready to be taken out for a test run and will re-enter service next year.

View attachment 6726406

It’s a 250 meter 25.000 ton Kirov class Nuclear cruiser. Originally constructed in the 1980ies, it has gone through an extensive modernization and has among with brand new sensors and AA weapons, also been equipped with Zirkon hypersonic missiles.

It’s also fucking SEXY and one of my fave modern ships. Just look at that bow.

Fellow naval geeks know what I mean.

World of Warships and Azure Lane lied to me, that's not a carrier.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Wanna hear a joke about Orzesznik?
O rzesz ku... mać!

Heh, cute!


I knew someone was going to post the special romantic operation image.


Remember this guy?

Воспоминания Пригожина о Пальмире:

«2 марта 2017 года с рассветом я прибыл под Пальмиру и находился там вместе с одним высокопоставленным чиновником из сирийской администрации, который приехал поблагодарить моих бойцов за то, что они согласились во второй раз отбить Пальмиру у врага.

Сирийские войска отказались нас поддерживать во время этого штурма. В принципе сирийская армия редко когда воевала, обычно она ходила табунами по нашим стопам, когда дело уже было сделано. Так случилось и на Пальмире.

Первым, кто заходил на Пальмиру был Ратибор — командир первого штурмового отряда. Хорошо помню его слова, он повернулся к чиновнику и сказал: «Если вы опять проебете Пальмиру, в третий раз мы точно ее отбивать не будем».

Сегодня Пальмира пала в третий раз…

Spoiler: Translation

Prigozhin's recollection of Palmyra:

“On March 2, 2017, at dawn, I arrived near Palmyra and was there with a high-ranking official from the Syrian administration, who came to thank my fighters for agreeing to recapture Palmyra from the enemy for the second time.

The Syrian troops refused to support us during this assault. In principle, the Syrian army rarely fought, usually they followed on heels of our footsteps when the deed was already done. This is what happened in Palmyra.

The first to enter Palmyra was Ratibor, the commander of the first assault squad. I remember his words well, he turned to the official and said: "If you fuck up Palmyra again, we definitely won't take it back a third time."

Today Palmyra fell for the third time...

It's clear who won Syria for Assad, and it wasn't the Syrians.

 

[Fapcop]

Could anybody give me some concrete refutations to the "RUZZIA HAS LOST 500,000 TROOPS!!" shit? Because I am desperately trying to convince my friend group that I'm not a "contrarian" for not going full SLAVA UKRAININININININI.

All those X thousands of dead are just based on propaganda guesstimates.

The best source for number of Russian dead are Mediazona that checks obituaries and reports in Russian newspapers and has far lower deaths. Under 100.000.

Ask your friend: If they really lost half a million dead, then how come they don’t do mass conscription, but can manage through recruiting contract soldiers?

 

[Gondolindrim]

Sadly I think you're right. These dudes actually believe that 1) the "sanctions" have done anything, 2) that the Russian people still enjoying a cheap cost of living is somehow not a refutation of "the sanctions work!", and 3) that "western intelligence agencies" claiming 500,000 Russian casualties might as well be "The crack pipe said so!".

Yet when I ask "Well what engagements would result in 500,000 casualties in almost 3 years of conflict?", I never get a definitive answer beyond "Well we know Russians always take casualties". Hell the only engagement I can think of where there would have even been a lot of casualties would have been the Siege of Bakhmut Artemvosk, but even then the bulk of the casualties on the Russian side were taken by Wagner using convicts to break through the Ukrainian defenses.

"The Russians have over 800,000 active in theater and they can actively replenish troops. That's why 500,000 casualties doesn't render them combat ineffective!", says one. To which I asked if he actually thought that the majority of Russian society would accept such an insane body count, and he responded with a bunch of unrelated nonsense about how Siberians are poor and the payout for 1 dead soldier is a decade's worth of pay.

But when I bring up how Russian guys that I actively talk to and am friends with can give their personal stories on how the average Russian is actually just fine...nope, "anecdote".

It's tiresome.

All I know is that if 500K Russians were wiped out in Ukraine, then Z-man would not be talking about letting the Russians keep the territory they already have

 

[Fapcop]

World of Warships and Azure Lane lied to me, that's not a carrier.

Well… It can take a lot of choppers?!

NAFO BROS… I don’t feel so good rn!

https://t.me/rezident_ua/25093

Also: Apparently the amnesty for first time deserters had the OPPOSITE effect, lol!

 

[Light blue notebook]

Could anybody give me some concrete refutations to the "RUZZIA HAS LOST 500,000 TROOPS!!" shit? Because I am desperately trying to convince my friend group that I'm not a "contrarian" for not going full SLAVA UKRAININININININI.

No country while in a conflict has ever reported on exact numbers of casualties.

A simple thought experiment can be made instead.

Imagine you are the largest and most well equipped army in the EU, with around 600 000 - 650 000 active military personnel, trained by NATO instructors in direct violation of an agreement to keep being at peace.

Suddenly a neighbor attacks you with around 300 000 - 400 000 men, you fight back, but after around 2 years you find yourself with a situation where on most fronts you have less men than the enemy, while the enemy has tried to have a constant number of 300 000- 400 000.

During these past two years, the country that defended themselves, has recruited forcefully several thousands of men per month, while there's no such visible operation going on in the attacking country.

Only during this last year they have put more men into the theater.

Who do you, with some critical thinking, think have lost more men?

(Could probably be expanded and changed upon, and reworded better, but I'm tired and thought it was a fun experiment.)

 

[jje100010001]

My opinion on current events is that Russia will need to speed up the Special Military Operation in Ukraine as the Syrian front is at risk of collapsing, and figure out how to geopolitically reposition itself now that its bases in Syria are at risk (any 'agreement' is still only paper at the end of the day), with a possible consequential shutting off of the Black Sea and the loss of its influence in Africa.

Secondary risks come with hardened Islamic militants taking advantage of the end of that front to be filtered up to restive regions like the Caucasus and cause issues there, along with infiltration from the -stans. Later still are the eventual risks of a Qatar pipeline supplying Europe if that conspiracy theory is true.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

My opinion on current events is that Russia will need to speed up the Special Military Operation in Ukraine as the Syrian front is at risk of collapsing, and figure out how to geopolitically reposition itself now that its bases in Syria are at risk (any 'agreement' is still only paper at the end of the day), with a possible consequential shutting off of the Black Sea and the loss of its influence in Africa.

Secondary risks come with hardened Islamic militants taking advantage of the end of that front to be filtered up to restive regions like the Caucasus and cause issues there, along with infiltration from the -stans.

Syria is already lost, at least for Assad. Russia seems content to let it happen so they must have gotten assurances from Erdogan that Russia's interest there will be preserved.

 

[jje100010001]

Syria is already lost, at least for Assad. Russia seems content to let it happen so they must have gotten assurances from Erdogan that Russia's interest there will be preserved.

I mean trusting Watermelon Man? Might as well let him reign as Sultan of the -stans if Pootin is that trusting.

If Syria is lost, in the long term, Russia should either carve out Latakia as a rump Alawite client state, or look at Libya for a new base location.

 

[Fapcop]

I mean trusting Watermelon Man? Might as well let him reign as Sultan of the -stans if Pootin is that trusting.

If Syria is lost, in the long term, Russia should either carve out Latakia as a rump Alawite client state, or look at Libya for a new base location.

I suspect the base is safe at least for the foreseeable future.

First of all. It’s located in Latakia. It’s a regime stronghold as will likely remain even if Damascus falls. Many of the people there know their throats will be cut if the Jihadis come.

Secondly, even if Latakia joins the rest of Syria post whatever civil war there will be after Assad falls. (You can bet they’ll all be at each others throats: Sunni, Shia, Christians, Alawite, Kurds) Russia signed a deal with the Syrian state. Not Assad personally. A successor state would be bound to honor that deal. Russia has all sorts of strings they can pull.

 

[jje100010001]

I suspect the base is safe at least for the foreseeable future.

First of all. It’s located in Latakia. It’s a regime stronghold as will likely remain even if Damascus falls. Many of the people there know their throats will be cut if the Jihadis come.

Secondly, even if Latakia joins the rest of Syria post whatever civil war there will be after Assad falls. (You can bet they’ll all be at each others throats: Sunni, Shia, Christians, Alawite, Kurds) Russia signed a deal with the Syrian state. Not Assad personally. A successor state would be bound to honor that deal. Russia has all sorts of strings they can pull.

I think the difficulty of predicting the outcome of this event is of the ease of how quickly the Assad government is collapsing. People can strategize about defending at Homs, Hama, etc. But none of it matters if the army literally melts away and its regional allies sit by while the opponent takes entire cities without a fight.

I think the fundamental underlying factor is likely economic and societal exhaustion due to the war and sanctions, leading to the demobilization of the Syrian army & an inability to replenish defensive stocks (i.e. from Israeli airstrikes), while its opponent was constantly being strengthened in Idlib, much like the west is funding Ukraine. I'm sure at some point there must have been a good look at the fate of the country with geopolitical arrangement made about its future, given the muted response of its allies.

I guess this underlines the importance of Russia surviving the wave of sanctions that started to emerge after Maidan in 2014, and how important it will be to balance the economy against the war efforts.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Russia seems content to let it happen so they must have gotten assurances from Erdogan that Russia's interest there will be preserved.

I don't think content is the right world, more like they're viewing this situation realistically, the Turk is a notorious backstabber. If the Alawites can control Latakia then Russia is fine, for now but if not they should scuttle everything. Including the Tartus port they built.

I think the difficulty of predicting the outcome of this event is of the ease of how quickly the Assad government is collapsing.

Arabs are famous for being unreliable allies. Also, Assad is not his father, who would have never allowed the first sign of rebellion to go unpunished. Brutally, as is the norm there. Russia should have cultivated a Hafez 2.0 and persuaded Assad to retire but other things came up.
Ukraine, for one.