Kino Casino - Read Kiwifarms with abortionist A-a-andy Warski and lardy PPP. A lolcow drama show. 2/28/2019, never forget.

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WOOOOO Untitled.webpOOOOOOUntitled.webpOOOOOAAAUntitled.webpAAAAAAAHUntitled.webpHHHHH!!!!!!!

WWWWWEEEELCOME EVERYBODY TO ANOTHER EPISODE OF THE AWOL CASINO!!! TONIGHT WE'VE GOT A CRAaAaAaAaAZY SHOW FOR YOU ALL, SO LET'S GET SOME SUUUUUBBBBZZZZ!!!

NOW LET'S GET INTO THE GOOD STUFF. ANDY, HEAD INTO THE TARD AND LARD FOLDER. OPEN UP THE FIRST SLIDE. IT'S CRAZY, FOLKS.

AS YOU CAN SEE ON THE OBS, THERE: IT'S JUST A PAGE WITH THE WORDS
ANDY WARSKI LIVESTREAMED CP ON 2/28/19 WRITTEN ON IT REPEATEDLY. AND WHAT THIS SEEMS TO BE, IS SOME SORT OF SPELL, AN INCANTATION, THAT PREVENTS THE CASINO FROM GOING LIVE. IMAGINE BEING SCARED TO HIT STREAM ON OBS BECAUSE YOU'RE AFRAID A WEBSITE WILL WRITE ABOUT YOU. THAT'S SOME KINO STUFF THERE, SOME REEEAAL BITCH-MADE SHIT BAH-DEEEE.

SCROLL TO THE BOTTOM THERE, BUT AS YOU CAN SEE I TOOK THE LIBERTY TO ADD A LITTLE EXTRA THERE MYSELF, PUT A LITTLE BIT MORE ELBOW GREASE IN, AS IT WERE, SO
LET'S GET SOME SUUUUBBBBZZ FOR THE AMOUNT OF WORK I DO TO KEEP YOU ALL ENTERTAINED.

AS YOU CAN SEE ON YOUR SCREEN THERE, I ADDED ANOTHER PAGE THAT SAYS
ASHTON PARKS AND HIS BROTHER RAPED AND MURDERED A CAT OVER AND OVER AGAIN, THAT'S SOME WILD STUFF THERE, THAT'S FUCKED, BUDDY. HIT THE BELL FOR THAT ONE. THAT'S A
Untitled.webpRETARD ALERT!Untitled.webp
Untitled.webpPEDOPHILE ALERT!Untitled.webp
Untitled.webpZOOSADIST ALERT!Untitled.webp
 
It's also telling how thoroughly the tone of this thread has changed since page 883, when the Kyler accusations came forth but prior to the Liana confirmations. Then start looking at the followup to the Liana confirmation on page 893, prior to the MM information expository. Then just pick any random pages between then and now and you will see many things at play.

1) Many of the current alogs were withholding judgment for more information/confirmation at that time, myself included. Many of the alogs who are quite active now were defenders at that time.
2) The thread was overwhelmingly saying "nothingburger" and the alogs were getting massively negatively stickered
3) Over the course of the next 100 pages or so, debate rages.
4) CAPS LOCK MAGIC COMPLETELY AND UTTERLY TURNS THE TIDE AND GETS THE ALOGS TO WORK IN TANDEM
5) Slowly, defenders defect or withdraw, alogs multiply.
6) Several alog accounts have been registered in the first two weeks of 2025 and they've come out swinging
7) The culture of the thread has completely reversed from overwhelmingly fan thread to overwhelmingly alog thread because of overwhelming evidence.
8) It has been 2144 days since ANDY WARSKI LIVESTREAMED CP
This is like when EDP got outed as a pedo and his subreddit turned from a fansub into a pure a-logging sub. In fact I can't think of any other instance of an eceleb having their fan community hub turning to an a-log hub like this.
 
@AltisticRight, I have a math degree and I have no idea what's going on here. Break it down for me a bit.
It seems you are using the stats of the top 10 pigs, extrapolating that to assume that the mathematical modeling follows for subsequent pigs and drawing your calculations from that. Is that the gist of it?
I was simply fitting different equations to find the diminishing point (taking limits to infinity) and then summing it all up (cumulative over a lifetime) to try and find the average paypig donations. I chose the best model (exponential) and even that was just middle class wagie pay, or flipping burgers after a 50/50 split. So it was better for them to work at McDonald's.

Basically yeah, you're right. Also the models suck and it's admittedly going to be grossly underestimated, unless we find a way to get the top 50 or something.
 
I was simply fitting different equations to find the diminishing point (taking limits to infinity) and then summing it all up (cumulative over a lifetime) to try and find the average paypig donations. I chose the best model (exponential) and even that was just middle class wagie pay, or flipping burgers after a 50/50 split. So it was better for them to work at McDonald's.

Basically yeah, you're right. Also the models suck and it's admittedly going to be grossly underestimated, unless we find a way to get the top 50 or something.
If i may, trying to use models of linear progression/regression is going to be something that will definitely not provide accurate results. Every sektur based show was always a show of mountains and valleys donationwise. I propose a different outlook to estimate instead the performance of the show: F(x) = x/y where x = (monetary sum of a show)-(parasocial paypig money) and y = aggregate viewership ( unique chatters to combat the bot anomaly, engagement the topic generated ). My reasoning for removing the paypig funds from the performance estimate is because these fags will donate despite of the show's performance and therefore would require a different function to fit in their anomalous model or even they can be set aside as a constant. Also:

ANDY WARSKI LIVESTREAMED CP
 
I was simply fitting different equations to find the diminishing point (taking limits to infinity) and then summing it all up (cumulative over a lifetime) to try and find the average paypig donations. I chose the best model (exponential) and even that was just middle class wagie pay, or flipping burgers after a 50/50 split. So it was better for them to work at McDonald's.

Basically yeah, you're right. Also the models suck and it's admittedly going to be grossly underestimated, unless we find a way to get the top 50 or something.
It also bears noting that the time frame being referenceD was not 2 years, but more like 2.85* (2 years, 309 days between 1/21/22 and 11/25/24). [DERP, TIMER STARTS AT FIRST KICK SHOW, NOT FIRST SHOW EVER. WILL FIND DATE OF FIRST KICK SHOW IF I CAN. I BELIEVE THE INITIAL SUBSCRIBERS WERE ENTERING THEIR 18TH MONTH RECENTLY, PUTTING THEM IN 18 OR 19 MONTHS OF DATA, BUT THE TWO YEAR MARK NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN IN THAT CASE. RECORDS IN THIS THREAD SHOW THAT ON 6/23/23, THEY WERE JUST STARTING THEIR KICK AND THE MIGRATION WAS FAR FROM COMPLETE, THEY WERE DOING STREAMS ON BOTH KICK AND YOUTUBE. TO BE EXTRA GENEROUS, THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN ASSESSED OVER 18 MONTHS (AN UPPER BOUND) WHICH WOULD INCREASE ALL PROJECTIONS BY 33%. STILL, NOT GOOD. EVEN IF WE ASSESS THEM AT 33K/YEAR RATHER THAN 25K/YEAR IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN GENEROUSLY ESTIMATED.] It is also extremely outlier heavy as the mean of the 10 pigs would be considerably lower if the number 1 spot were closer to 1700 or so. 2500 is an extreme outlier internal to that data set. When I see exponential modeling, the way I tnd to think of it is this. If the data presented fit a perfect pattern, like a perfect geometric progression, we'd have a perfect calculation. We don't have a perfect pattern, so we are using the chosen method of modeling to determine the pattern that most closely fits the given data and making a calculation from that as a predictive model. The more data points known with certainty, the more the margin of error shrinks relative to the prediction, much like how 10 coin flips will often contain 7+ heads, but the odds of 10,000 coin flips containing 7000+ heads are ridiculous. The odds of 1,000,000 coin flips containing even 520,000 heads is astronomically low. Yeah, I kind of got the gist when I looked at it a second time, but the time frame and the extreme outlier weren't accounted for (or at least cited in the case of the latter).
I noticed you rounded up significantly from the model to be generous, but yeah, keep in mind, they are going to have a LOT of people in the 1-20 sub range, people who just maintain a personal subscription and people who might have gifted an extra 1-5 subs on a singular occasion.

Additionally, what I am not clear on is this. Because we noted that some of their membership durations exceeded their sign-in date by a month or two, we determined that if someone were to self-subscribe and get gifted within their first month, they'd be noted as a two month subscriber. In some cases, the membership duration exceeded true time by over a month and we concluded that if you got gifted a sub while you were prepaid for the next month, you'd now be prepaid for the next two months. Repeat ad infinitum. This got me asking the following question. If you had a channel with 5 followers, and one of those followers paypigged 500 subs, so now either everyone has 100 subs or 4 people have 125 subs (depending on if the algorithm gifts subs back to gifter). Now, I do not know if the owner of said channel would get 2500 (less Kick's 5%) in month 1 or 25 for 100 months (or 20 for 125 months in this unique example, where the giver is a relevant portion of the total audience). I don't know how much it matters though, because few people are prepaid more than 2 months in advance. I *might* have seen one party paid almost 3 months in advance.
I tried to estimate YT and Gumroad revenue but there were too many instance of conflicting information and unknown information to make anything close to a reasonable guess. Parsing all the cases in most generous assumptions and least generous assumptions would have had so many cases, it was worthless. But Gumroad and Clips Channel revenue is not insignificant. I have MASSIVELY different claims on how much money 100,000 YT views generates.
 
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If you ask me PPP understands he's fucked and the best thing for saving what remains of his online reputation is to jump ship but Warski holds all the cards. The editor who has full control over YouTube channel is a Warski loyalist. Paypigs, OBS and probably kick channel are all under Warski's control. If Warski cuts him off everything he wouldn't be able to pay his bills or afford his meals for the week with his expensive food and gamblig addiction. And it's going to take a while before he can start making enough money again on his own. You couldn't tell from how dominant he's on the show but he's right about being a walrus on the strings for paypigs. He's Andy Warski's walrus who performs for him and his friends on his freak show in exchange for bags of potato chips, weed and a roof over his head. It must feel really dirty to be in that position.
 
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If you ask me PPP understands he's fucked and the best thing for saving what remains of his online reputation is to jump ship but Warski holds all the cards. The editor who has full control over YouTube channel is a Warski loyalist. Paypigs, OBS and probably kick channel are all under Warski's control. If Warski cuts him off everything he wouldn't be able to pay his bills or afford his meals for the week with his expensive food and gamblig addiction. And it's going to take a while before he can start making enough money again on his own. You couldn't tell from how dominant he's on the show but he's right about being a walrus on the strings for paypigs. He's Andy Warski's walrus who performs for him and his friends on his freak show in exchange for bags of potato chips, weed and roof over his head. That must feel really dirty to be in that position.
Yeah the crux of the issue is that PPP isn't the kind of person that will go work a job. Now the one card he holds against all that is that literally everyone prefers him over Tardski and many are in favor of TOTAL TARDSKI DEATH even because of just straight up how unwatchable he makes the show. At the end of the day even in his current turbocucked version he is just miles ahead of Tardski which again who isn't, it's Tardski. He literally sucks anything funny out of the room and he is sitting there with his homosexual paypigs discussing about them buying his used underwear. It was a terrible decision from the start to go in business with this person.

ANDY WARSKI LIVESTREAMED CP. That's the elephant in the room ( the one that isn't called Asston ) and the biggest issue here to begin this rant, just because of this, anyone except Ralph who was the cohost of that accursed stream, can just press them on that and basically hit the killswitch on their whole show. Just needs slight audience overlap or even some paypig going rogue and bombing them with that. It's legit a full on killswitch and there is nothing they can do about that. If someone decides to go in on them with that they are fucked.

Work ethic. When you have a show, you need some sort of structure, some sort of schedule, when you are doing this professionally, obviously that means you need to be able to succesfully branch out from sektur because sektur is again mountains and valleys, and you need to be able to cover other dumb shit on the internet and be equally entertaining. Thing is even on their base material they fucking suck. They promise shows and don't deliver, they miss hot button topics or cover them way later on because they are hiding from the criticism of the people in this thread. All n all it's not consistent, and that creates big problems with growing your potential viewerbase which is part of why it stagnates.

Entertainment value. The show is fucking unwatchable. Like legit i do not know how anyone even watches this as background noise even. It's just so bad, PPP giving the coldest takes in the universe and going on "fiery preacher rants" while sitting next to a guy that killed his own baby and LIVESTREAMED CP. Takes any kind of impact any of his criticisms have and he isn't even saying anything of substance even. And his cohost is just some retarded monkey that parrots his words and constantly fake laughs and claps like a seal with his tardlaughter and stutters 10 minutes through a superchat to interupt the flow of the show. THEN YOU ALSO HAVE THE FUCKING SEGMENTS WHERE THE PAYPIGS GIVE THEM MONEY TO PLAY VIDEOS IN 0.5x SPEED. Their paypigs are straight up alogging them because that just ruins the show. NOW WE ALSO HAVE THE ADDITION OF BEISER WHICH IS SUCH AN INSUFFERABLE FAGGOT, TO MAKE TARDSKI POST STREAM EVEN MORE UNWATCHABLE. All n all it's just such an unwatchable mess.

Backchannel bullshit. We went from exposing Metokur Masochist to Purity Sin, to M0rshu, to Beiser and it's varying degrees of pedophilia and diaperfurs to straight up stalker behavior like Beiser buying Tardski's used underwear ( WHAT THE FUCK ) and even METOKUR MASOCHIST GETTING THESE TWO NIGGERS TO SHIELD NOT ONLY JUST HIM BUT ANYONE THAT BATS FOR TEAM PEDOPHILE. LET'S NOT FORGET THAT THE REASON THE FLAMENCO STREAM WAS SANDBAGGED WAS BECAUSE THAT PEDO TOLD EM TO. THE SAME PEDO THAT IS STILL FRIENDS WITH TARDSKI ON TWITTER AND IG, THE SAME PEDO THAT IS ALSO STILL FRIENDS ON STEAM WITH MULTIPLE OF THEIR PAYPIGS AND EVEN PURITY SIN. HE TOTALLY CUT CONTACT BRO, NOT REALLY. THEY EVEN GO ON TRANNY ORGIES WITH THEIR OWN PAYPIGS. MEETUPS.
 
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I offer the following submission as a matter of public interest based on Ashton's recurring themes of physical intimidation and physical responses when his social skills fail and he resorts to phyiscality and tardrages. The following vids are from 7/4/23 (was posted on that day anyways) and is on page 600 of this thread. Apologies for the size of the first vid, I thought I'd have an option to scale it down to a more reasonable size. Anyhow, it is imporant to note two things that are made abundantly clear in this vid. Ashton is NOT the 800 lb gorilla in the room who gets to do whatever he wants. The below footage shows Tardski besting him with a rear naked choke. He is DEFENSELESS from behind. You'll also note that he refused to tap out, which means in a legitimate melee, he must be fully neutralized, as he won't even surrender in a spar. This means choking him until he is unresponsive and limp. Maybe this is unconsciousness, maybe this is death, but you are legitimately fearing for your life at this point. Note that his most deadly position is a front grapple where he is putting his weight on you, but his instincts to brace his own weight give you a short window to turn it into a rear grapple and you have all the cards at this point. His hands are large and his weight is significant, but if you realize that you are in a life and death situation that you can't just surrender your way out of, you'll find the adrenaline to eat those punches in pursuit of his rear (the jokes make themselves). Tardski is less than half his size, out of shape and not a trained combatant himself. The Salt Papi jokes must flow.

As insufferable as Surfer was, he was also a tiny goblin and it was hard to watch him fold to Baby Huey here. Baby Huey needs to be put in his place from time to time and if he makes a credible threat because he's chimping out over hurt feelings, as he has a history of doing, just remember this handy dandy guide on how to drop the warthog. He relies on intimidation and mental warfare. Absent that, see how pathetic and defenseless the fat tard really is. Obviously, if you have credible threats on your safety, improvised weapons that are readily available and even firearms, but there are hosts of legal issues with how you approach that based on circumstance and location. If you do get pinned by his weight, just mindlessly hammer his pig snout until muscle tenseups give you windows to get your body free. This fat bully should never be feared in a physical capacity ever again. Watching the Surfer bullying made me sick to my stomach, so I thought I'd drop this guide on how to drop Ashton.




 
Pretty impressive work by Andy.
An EXTREMELY rare unironic use of this statement.

After PPP'S little temper tantrum on their last stream, I am interested to see whether they'll stream on Monday or not. And if they do what their next cope about everything being speculated on here will be.

I ALMOST made it to the four hour mark and I am unfamiliar which temper tantrum is being referenced. Refresh us please. I will amend this if I find the answer in the thread logs.
 
I have to admit something you guys: I am feeling hopelessly A-Loggy right now. My face is bright red, veins are pulsing out of my forehead, foam is dripping down my chin. My family and friends that haven't given up on me are very worried; I haven't left the basement computer dungeon for weeks to neither bathe, nor to greet the sun and fresh air. There are discarded hungry man dinner containers, piss jugs, and pepsi cans entombing me like I am both Fortunato and Montresor in the Cask of Amontillado story. I'm gaining weight very rapidly, I weigh almost 1/3 as much PPP now and my gunt makes a clapping suction noise when I angrily lean into my capslock key. I am attempting to politically assemble the Brown Shirts and german shepherds to mobilize against those who have made me MATI, they will form a blockade in front of business entrances impeding the customers, and spraypaint yellow cows on their windows. I know it might seem like I am having fun shitposting, but nothing could be further from the truth; there are actually tears running down my face right now that I will use as lubricant to goon to BBC cuck porn for hours and hours.

They tell me extreme retardation is a good excuse for Tardski to posses and distribute CP, but in my blackened hateful heart I still cannot forgive. Pray for me capslock bros... pray.
 
As insufferable as Surfer was, he was also a tiny goblin and it was hard to watch him fold to Baby Huey here. Baby Huey needs to be put in his place from time to time and if he makes a credible threat because he's chimping out over hurt feelings, as he has a history of doing, just remember this handy dandy guide on how to drop the warthog. He relies on intimidation and mental warfare. Absent that, see how pathetic and defenseless the fat tard really is. Obviously, if you have credible threats on your safety, improvised weapons that are readily available and even firearms, but there are hosts of legal issues with how you approach that based on circumstance and location. If you do get pinned by his weight, just mindlessly hammer his pig snout until muscle tenseups give you windows to get your body free. This fat bully should never be feared in a physical capacity ever again. Watching the Surfer bullying made me sick to my stomach, so I thought I'd drop this guide on how to drop Ashton.
It's actually way simpler than that. Just put between you and him a freight of stairs and he will be completely stunlocked trying to figure out how to reach you.
 
Using the 11/25 data, I am going to use a different method. I am going to count the 2500 as an extreme outlier, as the number two spot is 1537 and the number 10 spot is 774. (774/1537) ^ (1/8) = .91782. This means that over the first 9 data points excluding the extreme outlier that is the 2500, the next point in the progression is 91.782% of the one before it. Conveniently, 774/1537 is almost exactly .5, as it is .5036. I am going to slightly inflate the data points to make an upper bound on our prediction. Presume that data point 2 was actually 1600, data point 10 was 800 and that every data point decreased by 8.3%. The sum of data points 2 through 9 would be 1600(1 + .917 + .917^2 + .... .917^7), which we are going to call y for now. This would give us the sum of the first 8 data points that exclude our extreme outlier. Every subsequent sum would be half the original. We are going to continue this until we model all paypigs that have contributed 100+ subs. We are stopping on data point 37, which is going to be about 100 by this modeling. So we are looking at y(1+1/2+1/4+1/8+1/16), or 31/16 y. So, now let's find y. You can trust my result or you can ask for an even more autistic and precise breakdown and I'll provide it, but for sake of brevity, I am going to just amend to the result. (1+.917+... +.917 ^ 7) = 6.02. We now have 6.02*1600*31/16, which is an estimated 18662 subs for all paypigs at 100+ subs. Add the 2500 outlier in, we have 21162 subs. With no basis whatsoever, let's assume that the sum total of the 100- subs is 25% of the total of the high rollers. I legitimately have NO basis by which to make a ballpark guess as to how to count the 100- subs, as that has far more than 37 people in the list by this modeling metric, so I'm just going to make it an even 4700 subs (more than 25% of 21162), to give us an estimated 25862. This is earned over less than 18 months (but more than 17 months), but let's make it 18 months. If you want to run with 17 instead, multiply final result by 18/17 or 1.059. In any case, 25862 X 5 = 129310. Take out 5% for Kick, we have 122845. Split by two, we have 61422 each. Multiply by 2/3s to account for the fact that this was over 1.5 years, we have 40948 per person per year, before taxes, after Kick's cut. Add 6% if you want to adjust it to a 17 month span. This is my method of estimation given the data available on 11/25/24.

Added in edit: The sum of the #2 through #9 paypig on 11/25 is 9175. My estimative model put it at 9632. Note that I erred the margin of error in their favor on multiple occasions to steelman their position. I was still within a 5% margin of error, so feel free to reduce my findings by 5% if desired.

Added in second edit: If I had not treated 2500 as an extreme outlier, we would have had 774/2500 ^ (1/9) = .877, which would have been a radically lower calculation across the board. This would have been an exercise in purposefully lower bounding the estimate to corrupt the analysis in my favor.

Added in third edit: The entirety of my upper bound analysis put the total subs at 25862. The top 10 pigs had a confirmable 12449 or VERY close to half of the total of my methodology used above. 48.14% if you want to be more precise.
 
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