Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Fatsuit Shinji]

On that note, I doubt US would just get unilateral rights to minerals, I would rather expect them to get an exclusive deal on development and produce where Ukraine also gets to benefit.

At minimum it'll be Ukrainians getting the jobs to the mining and production of the minerals with the United States being the destination for them. With Americans working with the minerals once they're state side.

 

[World in Scarlet]

The Russian MFA released a statement last night.

link

Context: Russia's demands prior to the invasion of Ukraine included US withdrawal from Europe and effectively dissolution of NATO, and Trump has often claimed that he would have made a deal with the Russians then.
Since both the US and Russia have a shared interest in removing US forces from Europe and dividing NATO, this might be a key part of their bilateral negotiations. It has been a Russian demand that there can be negotiation about Ukraine without a renegotiation of the wider European security structure, ie an American withdrawal from Europe.

Edit: I also want to point out that throughout this entire process, not a single demand has been made of Russia and not a single concession was offered. The opposite applies to US aligned countries.

 

[No. 7 cat]

. Even during the cold war, the European militaries were only seen as speed bumps meant to slow the Soviets down enough till the US could get enough military over there to push them and that's only if the Soviets didn't nuke their way across the countryside.

That's true enough in that was the perception. European armies then were not at their Imperial interwar Expeditionary level, but were largely better equipped than now, before the ravages of the GHW Bush-Clinton peace dividend, but the Soviet Union was seen as formidable. Afghanistan exposed the limits of Soviet forces (who were a magnitude better than the present equivalent). The past three years saw the Black Sea Fleet destroyed destroyed by a mix of ship drones and near obsolete post Soviet Neptune missiles. On land a mix and thirty year old Euro-American tanks and artillery, 50s Hawk SAMs, Gulf War 1 Patriots, the French César the old reliables of T-64, T-72, T-80, T-82 (perhaps), BMP-1, BMP-3, Hinds etc and a force that verging on the middle aged. If UA can be brought to an impressive level since war start in 2014, Euro forces can surely be brought to a level where they can do it mostly by themselves in aiding Ukraine and providing a pmilitary backstop. Aid is already evens stevens or near it.

I hope the US tell Lavrov to go take a running jump if they seek the lifting of sanctions, but there seems to be a pandering tone to those turd world losers. Again we will see.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

None of the Hawk SAMs are of 50ies vintage as all of the various versions had been upgraded to at least 80ies tech. Still even the most upgraded were with 90ies-00ies tech prior to being sent over to Ukraine.

 

[-Jack-]

The Russian MFA released a statement last night.
View attachment 6988509
link

Context: Russia's demands prior to the invasion of Ukraine included US withdrawal from Europe and effectively dissolution of NATO, and Trump has often claimed that he would have made a deal with the Russians then.
Since both the US and Russia have a shared interest in removing US forces from Europe and dividing NATO, this might be a key part of their bilateral negotiations. It has been a Russian demand that there can be negotiation about Ukraine without a renegotiation of the wider European security structure, ie an American withdrawal from Europe.

Edit: I also want to point out that throughout this entire process, not a single demand has been made of Russia and not a single concession was offered. The opposite applies to US aligned countries.

I mean, it's pretty much a whole nothing-burger of "let's keep talking", also it's a Russian source, so press x to doubt. Although I'm critical of Trump and how this has played out so far, patience and waiting are needed in this thread, until we know exactly what is agreed upon, we can't neg each other much.

feel free to neg me tho pls

 

[SBG]

I also want to point out that throughout this entire process, not a single demand has been made of Russia and not a single concession was offered. The opposite applies to US aligned countries.

Maybe not publicly, but in regards to the Ukraine mineral proposal I never saw anyone bring up New York before that Financial Times article. So I feel like people are mostly going off of some very public statements that are often coming from Russian outlets and influencers that see themselves as "sources familiar with their thinking".

Also, did Putin ever comment on the story of Trump telling him he'd strike Moscow if he started some shit (I forget the details)? Usually people on the Russia side are wanting to speak as glowing as possible about how Putin handles things and I'm not sure they'd have a way to spin something like that without making Putin look like a bitch.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Also, did Putin ever comment on the story of Trump telling him he'd strike Moscow if he started some shit (I forget the details)? Usually people on the Russia side are wanting to speak as glowing as possible about how Putin handles things and I'm not sure they'd have a way to spin something like that without making Putin look like a bitch.

The Ziggerpravda is currently minimizing reportage of Trump:

The Kremlin reportedly ordered Russian government-linked media to reduce reporting about US President Donald Trump and portray Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strong and decisive leader after the February 12 Trump-Putin phone call. Russian opposition news outlet Meduza reported on February 14 that the Kremlin instructed Russian state-run and pro-government media outlets to frame Trump and Putin's February 12 call as Putin's "initiative and victory" and to use Trump's name less frequently in coverage of the call and other events.[7] Meduza reported that the Kremlin is concerned that the Russian public might see Trump as a more "proactive and decisive" leader than Putin and wants Russian media to emphasize that Putin alone is responsible for the outcome of negotiations between him and Trump. An unnamed political strategist in the Russian Presidential Administration told Meduza that the Kremlin does not want the Russian public to perceive Trump as a "strong leader capable of changing the situation" and Putin as a passive or weak leader in comparison. The political strategist added that the Kremlin also instructed the Russian media to manage the public's expectations about negotiations to not create "false, overly optimistic expectations." The Russian information space has previously portrayed Trump as a pragmatic leader with whom Russia could work, but the Kremlin may be attempting to negatively shift the Russian public's perception of Trump in order to emphasize Putin's strength and agency amid reports of possible future peace negotiations and bilateral negotiations.

In short, for especially 155mm you should be deploying far enough back where enemy AA won't be an issue.

Air slung M777s are good for dunking on the Taliban and FARC, and its great for India placing them high in the mountains against China, but Russian/Chinese conventional AA systems can reach a heli slinging artillery and China has excellent roads in the said mountains against India so even SPGs can work in such normally inaccessible altitudes.

 

[WelperHelper99]

tl;dr: You can use much lighter vehicles to tow things like M777. lighter vehicles are easier to mainain and guzzle less fuel. They are also much easier to replace: if a truck breaks down you don't need to get a large recovery vehicle out, very likely another truck can tow it. It is much easier to fine a truck than a new SPG. And while you firebase is operating they can do other jobs like haul ammo and supplies. An SPG requires other vehicles to bring it ammo and fuel.
Smaller trucks also make less noise which means you can shift your battery to different positions; this is much less valuable now that everyone has 4k drones hovering around, but you can still make them hunt for new set up.

In regards to a peer conflict, not every emplacement is going to be involved in heavy artillery duels. Ukraine just doesn't have the US's "infinite ammo" and "JDAM problem removal" cheats turned on.

The real issue is, as you start to point out, is that SPGs offer shrapnel protection for the crew. IIRC the usual practice with standard field artillery is to fire, watch for a flash, and once you see that flash everyone scatters for the tree lines until the counter battery is over, then you either set back up or shift location.


In short, for especially 155mm you should be deploying far enough back where enemy AA won't be an issue.

My points exactly. In a peer to peer fight (USA vs Russia/China), Artillery duels are going to be challenging, because they will have to contend with the US Air Force sending F-35's deep striking in with 2000 pound JDAM's and F-15EX's with AGM-158 JASSM stealth cruise missiles clearing the way well before artillery sets up and starts shelling. Duels will still happen, but holy fuck will it be harder. Not to mention the new Stryker SHORAD systems that have been built to counter drones:

Send some airburst 30mm at a quadcopter, and boom, you now have a shield against even those fiber optic fuckers.

Air slung M777s are good for dunking on the Taliban and FARC, and its great for India placing them high in the mountains against China, but Russian/Chinese conventional AA systems can reach a heli slinging artillery and China has excellent roads in the said mountains against India so even SPGs can work in such normally inaccessible altitudes.

Air to air systems are a issue, but the US Air Force is well adept in SEAD operations. Even the Army has some capability in that department- low flying Apache gunships with the Longbow upgrade package will send some hellfires down their gullets, and they'll be below radar and inbetween the trees as to not get shot by a S-400. On the ground, a M10 Booker and its squad can deal with the SHORAD systems.

All of this is to say: the M777's in a peer to peer conflict, more often than not, will have time to land and start shelling. They will be protected by their friends in the other branches.

 

[World in Scarlet]

I mean, it's pretty much a whole nothing-burger of "let's keep talking", also it's a Russian source, so press x to doubt. Although I'm critical of Trump and how this has played out so far, patience and waiting are needed in this thread, until we know exactly what is agreed upon, we can't neg each other much.

feel free to neg me tho pls

The content of the statement wasn't disputed by the Americans, as far as I know, and it's in line with what Trump personally said about his feelings and plans regarding Russia (back in G7, normalized relations, removing all sanctions).
The American side confirmed that a call took place, but didn't detail the content.

The negotiations also play out according to the stipulations of the Russian MFA, with key Russian demands met (exclude Europe, reject NATO membership, renegotiate NATO posture more broadly), others signalled to be supported (removing the current Ukrainian government).
So far the Russians were asked to compromise on basically nothing except a deferral of Ukrainian leadership change and that alongside US-Russian talks, there will be Russian, UA, US talks too, though who knows whether these will matter.

Excluding Europe is particularly significant, because virtually all Europeans are anti-Russian, which would force Russia to face a united front of countries that insist on weakening Russia, which isn't in Trump's interest.
It's also broadly contrary to US foreign policy, which implements the slogan "America first" in the form of "America alone".

---

Edit: There's also been overtures by the Chinese towards the EU, and some argue that this should be pursued to counter American influence, but most seem to think that's not a serious option.

It's not as crazy as it seems, the EU and China have few conflicts, and no territorial disputes, which is more than can be said about EU-US relations.

 

[NewFagWhore]

Theres a huge shill disinfo campaign going on over the supposed plan. (a good way to check this is to see how many ZELENSKY IS LE BAD threads are up on /pol/ - or to check how hyped pro-Russian medias are in Europe) This means that Russia is purposefully trying to muddy the waters about it with vranyo, suggesting that whatever is being proposed is not really good for them.

 

[Skylavijas]

There's also been overtures by the Chinese towards the EU, and some argue that this should be pursued to counter American influence, but most seem to think that's not a serious option.

It's not as crazy as it seems, the EU and China have few conflicts, and no territorial disputes, which is more than can be said about EU-US relations.

I cannot fucking believe that I'm living in a timeline where China may be a better and more reliable trade partner for the EU than the US. I used to be strongly against the idea, but with the projected tariffs, it might've already become unavoidable.

 

[YHWH's Strongest Soldier]

Then Europe better start showing the US and Trump some respect since they can't defend themselves and depend on the US to do it.

Do you seriously think that the US should deconstruct its global hegemony because the countries it subjugated aren't being nice enough? The corn syrup is actually making you people fucking retarded.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

️North Korean 170-mm self-propelled guns M-1989 "Koksan" in service with the Russian military

 

[ReasonablyRetarded]

I cannot fucking believe that I'm living in a timeline where China may be a better and more reliable trade partner for the EU than the US. I used to be strongly against the idea, but with the projected tariffs, it might've already become unavoidable.

This is what I've been saying ever since mudbrained isolationist sentiment really started gaining traction in discourse regarding geo-politics.
It might not be the only reason, but a huge reason why European countries do business with the US is precisely because of the US's global power projection.
It certainly isn't because it's cheap or anything along those lines.

It's been an observable thing that wherever the West pulls out, the East fills the gap, with Africa being the most obvious example.

The only reason that sanctions by the West actually do anything is because the West has a collective block of resources (literally and figuratively speaking) strong enough for it to matter & actually have some effect.

The US pulling out of that Western block indirectly by trying to strongarm Europe in a way where Europe might as well just buddy up with China(not saying that will happen for sure due to ethic questions, but then again what is the alternative besides getting dicked over by the US), could easily see that script flipped, where now it's a collective Eastern block that gets to decide terms & norms on the global stage.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that that's something that probably should be avoided at all costs, but who am I.

 

[SBG]

The Ziggerpravda is currently minimizing reportage of Trump:

This bit feels significant.

Russian officials and information space actors have notably not amplified the Russian information operation aimed at portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the illegitimate leader of Ukraine since the February 12 Trump-Putin call. Russian President Vladimir Putin intensified this information operation in January 2024 and most recently questioned Zelensky's legitimacy during a televised interview on January 28, and other Russian officials had amplified this information operation as of February 10.[8] It remains unclear how long Russian officials and information space actors will refrain from amplifying this information operation, however. It would be a significant concession if Putin and other Russian officials recognized Zelensky's legitimacy as Ukraine's president after repeatedly questioning the legitimacy of all Ukrainian leaders since 2014.

If they're pretty much going to concede, finally, that Zelensky is legitimate, then it'd suggest they're feeling like they're really going to have to make a deal where Trump ensures they both sign onto, which means accepting they're truly making a deal with Ukraine rather than pretending it's irrelevant to the conversation.

Makes it look like they expect some progress to occur from all this.

I cannot fucking believe that I'm living in a timeline where China may be a better and more reliable trade partner for the EU than the US. I used to be strongly against the idea, but with the projected tariffs, it might've already become unavoidable.

https://x.com/BaldingsWorld/status/1891148804314779812

Made me think of Balding's comments on China and Europe.

As I've been listening to Galaxy Brains and Euros complain about the US and how China will take advantage, this is purely laughable. How laughable? Well let's go over the stats:

1. In 2023, China had total foreign direct investment into Europe of $9.97 billion USD(https://statista.com/statistics/277991/cash-flow-of-chinese-direct-investments-to-europe/…) where as in 2022, the United States had 435 billion euros which at 2022 exchange rates (make it simple was $435 billion. In other words, China invested $10 billion and the US invested $435 billion. Let's give the US a slight edge in this one.

2. In 2023, Europe had a trade deficit of 292 billion Euros, where as Europe had a trade surplus with the United States in 2024 of $267 billion USD. If Europe wants to try and get a better deal with China, then by all means let me be the first to make you reservations in Beijing.

3. Europe however are also our moral superiors so what about the environment? The United States emits 41% of the CO2 emissions compared to China and has been dropping between 1-1.5% annually for the past 20 years, while China's has roughly doubled in the same time period. (https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/china… and https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/united-states…).

4. Europe also has security concerns though right? The United States has contributed roughly 50% of the aid to Ukraine only slightly less than the entire European Union. China? They are feeding weapons to Russia to help them attack Ukraine and threaten Europe.

I could keep going on and on and on but here is the bottom line. If Europe wants to complain about the US and threaten to talk more to China, you are not going to get any thing close to a better deal, a country more in line with fundamental values, or better economic outcomes. If you will want to? Then let me be the first to suggest hotels in Beijing.

I don't know why anyone likes China that much or tries bringing them up as better partners because Trump wants fewer tariffs on American goods in Europe.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

This bit feels significant.


If they're pretty much going to concede, finally, that Zelensky is legitimate, then it'd suggest they're feeling like they're really going to have to make a deal where Trump ensures they both sign onto, which means accepting they're truly making a deal with Ukraine rather than pretending it's irrelevant to the conversation.

Makes it look like they expect some progress to occur from all this.

Looks like that didn't last too long:

This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.

This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.

 

[WelperHelper99]

I don't know why anyone likes China that much or tries bringing them up as better partners because Trump wants fewer tariffs on American goods in Europe

Europe is being told to behave and be good neighbors. Might as well be a act of war to the Euro.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Magyar and his cat, Mavic:

 

[Ghostse]

That's true enough in that was the perception.

The main thought was also...while the Dutch Military might only field say a division or two, even if the Netherlands is overrun, those divsions could retreat and still continue fighting in France/Spain/Scandinavia and eventually liberate their homeland. Like the Free French/Free Polish forces in WWII.

None of the Hawk SAMs are of 50ies vintage as all of the various versions had been upgraded to at least 80ies tech. Still even the most upgraded were with 90ies-00ies tech prior to being sent over to Ukraine.

Correct, this is like calling the F-15 as "Fighter from the 60s"; that's when it was was developed, and while technically true that design work began in the 60s, it ignores the massive upgrades that have happened since.

At minimum it'll be Ukrainians getting the jobs to the mining and production of the minerals with the United States being the destination for them. With Americans working with the minerals once they're state side.

That's sort of what I'm afraid of. It wouldn't be as effective about keeping Russia from trying shit as an actual US presence. I dunno though, I'm not putting too much thought about it because the more I hear about it, the more it sounds like a performative agreement that would prove impossible to enforce. It sounds more like Trump trying to silence dissenters with "what do we get out of it? Rare earth metals, those things we have to buy from china. now we have our own supply and china can't control us."

Actually the real hilarious part would be those REMs would like be refined and processed in Europe since IIRC Germany has ability to work with them. So either they would be sold in Europe by US companies or Eurocompanies would be paid to refine/process before they were shipped to the US.

Context: Russia's demands prior to the invasion of Ukraine included US withdrawal from Europe and effectively dissolution of NATO, and Trump has often claimed that he would have made a deal with the Russians then.
Since both the US and Russia have a shared interest in removing US forces from Europe and dividing NATO, this might be a key part of their bilateral negotiations. It has been a Russian demand that there can be negotiation about Ukraine without a renegotiation of the wider European security structure, ie an American withdrawal from Europe.

Context: You are a retard with a hateboner for another country's elected leader.

Two diplomatic heads commit to continuing to talk. Nothing else of any substance is mentioned.

TDS Eurofag: Trump is going to dissolve NATO. I don't have TDS, everyone else is a MAGA cultist, its not Europe's fault for giving russia trillions of dollars and continuing to keep their economy running.

Edit: I also want to point out that throughout this entire process, not a single demand has been made of Russia and not a single concession was offered. The opposite applies to US aligned countries.

Russia is heavily sanctioned.
Or to try to dumb this down for your Euroserf brain - You can't make trade demands of a country you aren't trading with.

I don't know why anyone likes China that much or tries bringing them up as better partners because Trump wants fewer tariffs on American goods in Europe.

Because Eurofags are big mad they are being expected to behave like allies and fund their militaries. Can you imagine the utter fucking cheek of the country that spends billions keeping Europroles from speaking Russian demanding that they stop trying to harm US business? I never.

Also though, ok let's be honest here, Treefags have let the corpos send a lot of US manufacturing to China; corpos love this because no environmental laws and zero worker rights/protections.
This is just Europe trying to cut out the middleman.

 

[No. 7 cat]

None of the Hawk SAMs are of 50ies vintage as all of the various versions had been upgraded to at least 80ies tech. Still even the most upgraded were with 90ies-00ies tech prior to being sent over to Ukraine.

Oh I know, but most Western military systems are older even with upgrades and oft have constrained capabilities. Older Challenger tanks do particularly well and the Abrams and Bradleys are excellent when properly used. That a decent supply of Y2K era and older systems plus ERA slathered T-55s, T64s and T80s, MiG-29s and SU 24 ssuffices should get through to the most Russia fearing or worshipping westoid that Russia no behemoth. It's even suggested that some Arab or African serving Cheftain tanks could be applicable. It's a strange war with the most archaic and advanced whether T-54s and the best of drones. They don't know. However, they live in a self imposed mis info bubble.