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The market is down but my own portfolio has barely lost 5% today. I guess that is what happens when most of your stuff is indexes and bonds. Just gotta hold and wait, in the long term it all goes green.
I know, but it's interfering with a personal investing goal milestone when I reach a quarter mil net worth. Every time I'm within a few K of a quarter mil, victory is snatched away from me. I always fumble the ball on the 1 yard line. I know that there are people out there with 200 dollars in their checking account who are stressing about this month's bills, whileplaying the world's smallest violin for my "investor problems" (which admittedly are a luxury gripe) but I'd be ever so much happier if I held 250K net worth for even a moment just before a series of losses. I've been teased this milestone on a multitude of occasions, but it plays out like an episode of Married With Children, when Poe's Law strikes in the 11th hour.
 
I just realized my situation is even more retarded. I technically made money despite the market loses thanks to currency conversion.

The BRL lost value since the last time my portfolio was at a ATH, meaning that even though the amount of USD I own has gone down when converted to BRL again it has remained almost static.
 
I know, but it's interfering with a personal investing goal milestone when I reach a quarter mil net worth. Every time I'm within a few K of a quarter mil, victory is snatched away from me. I always fumble the ball on the 1 yard line. I know that there are people out there with 200 dollars in their checking account who are stressing about this month's bills, whileplaying the world's smallest violin for my "investor problems" (which admittedly are a luxury gripe) but I'd be ever so much happier if I held 250K net worth for even a moment just before a series of losses. I've been teased this milestone on a multitude of occasions, but it plays out like an episode of Married With Children, when Poe's Law strikes in the 11th hour.
It's gonna sound stupid and boring, but ignore the noise and just keep putting money into a cheap, broad market index fund or ETF when you get the money. Don't check your balance, put it in whether the market is high or low, etc... Over time, people who do the best are those who buy and hold. I am guilty of panic selling, too, but I'd have done much better than I have if I hadn't done so.
 
Tariffs are so retarded, especially when Trump doesn't even know how they work in his own words lol

Glad I have a lot of cash at the moment
I am also concerned how a phase of stuff going down is making people this nervous. Maybe too many inexperienced people in the market. Maybe we are facing a long downward trend of 4-5 years. Can happen.

Wonder if that would filter out a lot of people.
 
It's gonna sound stupid and boring, but ignore the noise and just keep putting money into a cheap, broad market index fund or ETF when you get the money. Don't check your balance, put it in whether the market is high or low, etc... Over time, people who do the best are those who buy and hold. I am guilty of panic selling, too, but I'd have done much better than I have if I hadn't done so.
What you are saying is not stupid. What I am doing (namely, watching water boil) is stupid. My whole thing is that when I broke my last sabbatical, I was around 200K and watched it hit 245K in a relatively short amount of time, only to see it waffle constantly for the better part of a year, never cracking that 250K where I can rest on my laurels again. I'm just living the sunk cost fallacy and won't let myself stop watching the water boil til I hit that magical number. It's a prison of entirely my own making, yet I am not opening the cell. I JUST WANT TO SEE THE DAY MY STOCK MARKET PORTFOLIO, BANK ACCOUNTS AND ZILLOW ESTIMATION put me above 250K net worth. After that, I can emotionally detach and do the smart thing.
 
Wonder if that would filter out a lot of people.
That happens every cycle, doesn't it? It's only when valuations start to take off that retail investors begin to dump more money than they can afford into it, and without enough time in the market every fluctuation turns those numbers from green to red. An unpredictable factor that can and will move markets up and down just saying a word (like but not limited to: "TARIFFS") without worries the SEC will go after him doesn't help, but it should teach them not to look at it every day if they can avoid it, you'll know when shit gets bad when you lose your job and you're caught without pants. There's going to be a lot of blood on the streets at some point, won't be different this time either.
 
I am also concerned how a phase of stuff going down is making people this nervous. Maybe too many inexperienced people in the market. Maybe we are facing a long downward trend of 4-5 years. Can happen.

Wonder if that would filter out a lot of people.
I wouldn't be surprised if we have 4 years of this shit. Trump says and does a lot of stupid shit that tanks the markets. Tariffs is a good example.

The markets hate instability and that's what we have right now.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if we have 4 years of this shit. Trump says and does a lot of stupid shit that tanks the markets. Tariffs is a good example.

The markets hate instability and that's what we have right now.
True. You want to have stable conditions before putting in the money to build a factory. Now we have a pigon on the chessboard moment. Though he got in on the popular vote as well. Might be a sign that something in the US has fundemantally changed.

But enough politiksperging.

20250303_165252.jpg
Any opinions on the GDP forcast? - 2.8 % for a quarter is wild.
 
True. You want to have stable conditions before putting in the money to build a factory. Now we have a pigon on the chessboard moment. Though he got in on the popular vote as well. Might be a sign that something in the US has fundemantally changed.

But enough politiksperging.

View attachment 7051935
Any opinions on the GDP forcast? - 2.8 % for a quarter is wild.
I'd assume better than -2.8 because that's pretty damn bad
 
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True. You want to have stable conditions before putting in the money to build a factory. Now we have a pigon on the chessboard moment. Though he got in on the popular vote as well. Might be a sign that something in the US has fundemantally changed.

But enough politiksperging.

View attachment 7051935
Any opinions on the GDP forcast? - 2.8 % for a quarter is wild.
How much of that decrease is a result of cutting government spending?
 
I am convinced that alone, the tariffs will not cause anything to tank; but I am reminded of the effects of unintended consequences and believe Trump himself is creating a perfect storm this year that will actually cause dominoes to fall and cause a major final disruption globally.

I think what happened today is just a sampler of what is to come by August.
 
How much of that decrease is a result of cutting government spending?

US sitting at 27 trillion in GDP in 2023. 2.8 % is 0.756 trillion. The cutting is happening on the federal level, right? Correct me if I am wrong.

If this is correct the budget was 6.1 trillion in 2023. So it would have to been gutted by more than 10 %. Or, badly sized graphic related, some of these programs would have to been cut a lot. Of which I am not aware of.

2023_US_Federal_Budget_Infographic.png
So probably not much
It's mostly the change in net exports.
Better answer
 
I am convinced that alone, the tariffs will not cause anything to tank; but I am reminded of the effects of unintended consequences and believe Trump himself is creating a perfect storm this year that will actually cause dominoes to fall and cause a major final disruption globally.

I think what happened today is just a sampler of what is to come by August.
Tariffs won’t create the collapse. Trump restricting what and who domestic producers can export to will crater every sector.
 
Tariffs are so retarded, especially when Trump doesn't even know how they work in his own words lol
Trump's issue with tariffs is that they increase domestic production, yes, but they also limit your exports (by pissing off everyone into reciprocal tariffs). It can kinda work when your domestic pricing is close or is a major politican vote base (hello, automakers) for a nessecity. It doesn't work when China outproduces you 1000000 to 1 and at 1/10000 the cost.
Personally, I give zero shits about all the toilet seats made in China and not the USA, they can make those all day. I do care if the primers for ammunition is all made in China because preparing for the end of the world as an ammosexual is basically an American tradition.
 
Trump's issue with tariffs is that they increase domestic production, yes, but they also limit your exports (by pissing off everyone into reciprocal tariffs). It can kinda work when your domestic pricing is close or is a major politican vote base (hello, automakers) for a nessecity. It doesn't work when China outproduces you 1000000 to 1 and at 1/10000 the cost.
Personally, I give zero shits about all the toilet seats made in China and not the USA, they can make those all day. I do care if the primers for ammunition is all made in China because preparing for the end of the world as an ammosexual is basically an American tradition.
Fatty still claims that the country pays the tariff and not the importer, which gets passed on to the consumer. He's legitimately retarded and so is anyone who still supports him
 
20250303_165252.jpg
Any opinions on the GDP forcast? - 2.8 % for a quarter is wild.

Honestly sounds pretty likely.

The GDP has been a fucking mess for years. We spent 4 years of Biden's term getting gaslit about how the economy was the "BEST EVER" with monthly reports about AMAZING job numbers and growth (which then got slowly revised down and down until 6 months later they would admit it was all bullshit). None of those gains were real, it was all words on paper backed by nothing but the say so of people who proudly proclaimed "groceries aren't expensive! I have noticed no change on my bills (which my servants buy for me)!"

Combine this with El Naranja going full scorched earth and introducing massive changes to the system and this sounds pretty on point.

You are seeing 4 years of hidden losses being corrected at one, and Trump's shock therapy of government spending cuts, new tariff system and illegal underpaid labor getting shafted.
 
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