The Economic Collapse of 2025 - Are you tired of winning yet?

[COME ON OUT YOU RAPIST]

People really need to consider the idea that all the reindustrialization talk is mostly just PR, and that really the purpose of this large tax increase is to raise revenue for the government. See, I've been watching Trump's second term, and what I am seeing is austerity.

"Austerity refers to a set of economic policies that a government implements to control public sector debt, often involving spending cuts, tax increases, or a combination of both."

The DOGE stuff was about spending cuts, and the tariffs are a tax increase.

Pretty much all the stuff the US imports is still going to be imported, just with large taxes on it now. I don't know why people think that a shrinking economy is going to be great for reindustrialization, except for the fact that this was the PR campaign behind these huge new taxes. Basically if you are an American you are either going to have less savings, or less food and other goods. But you are still going to be buying your goods from poor countries where they are manufactured (or grown or fished) because it's still going to be cheaper than making them in the US. Besides, since the US economy is going to shrink quite a bit, there is going to be less available capital to build industries in the US. I mean I haven't heard that "All the money from the tariffs will go to subsidize US reindustrialization," or that even any of it will go to that, have you? It's just a tax increase to get more money from you and give it to the government. That's what it's about, it's not that complicated really.

1. If the reindustrialization stuff was "just PR" then Trump wouldn't be going on camera, repeatedly, telling these nations that the easiest path to no longer being tariffed is investing in American manufacturing. He would not be following the blueprints from 2019 that made blue collar wages accelerate faster than white collar wages. We already have nations that are no longer being tariffed because they've capitulated to American demands, even if it's not directly related to the topic of manufacturing. "We will spend money to begin constructing manufacturing plants in the USA, but in the meantime we'll use our factories overseas" is all you have to say to this guy.

2. "The stuff the USA imports" will no longer be imported if it doesn't sell, especially finished products. The situation we're looking at involves already-manufactured goods arriving in the country, costing too much for most consumers and signaling to their country of origin that sales will tank (and will remain low, if not end, if the prices don't change.) If this is a problem, see above. Domestic corporations (such as lumber or mining companies; it may shock you these still exist in America) are probably not going to ignore an obvious opportunity. As I mentioned earlier, we don't need foreign Amazon or eBay con artists flooding the market with phony companies to offload badly-made goods as fast as possible, then running off with the bag when your Christmas lights catch on fire, leaving no one to sue for damages.

3. China is about to become an exporter economy who loses 20% of its total revenue during a financial crisis. Yes, America's influence on their economy is that large. The Chinese will attempt to press places like Europe, southeast Asia and Australia harder for business, which isn't realistic since their trade relations are at max capacity and China's about as boorish as Trump (probably moreso) when it comes to negotiations. This should surprise no one who's read a history book since China is historically a nation of revolving dynasties speared by their own hubris. You will see a Decisive Tang Strategic Victory before the United States starts visibly hurting.

4. Your overall argument doesn't make sense to me. DOGE is gutting redundant departments and engaging in spending cuts; tariffs are taxes according to Rand Paul, ultimately amounting to a revenue increase alongside revitalizing employment sectors, yet none of those "taxes" are going to go to the president's goals that he campaigned on, has not stopped talking about (reindustrialization) and is taking huge gambles to pursue. What?

5. We had much harsher tariffs in 2017 that had a larger impact on the stock market and things like bonds. Nothing happened. The United States can afford to call itself a premium market due to its sheer size (remember: 20% of China's total exporter economy) and enforce that idea through things like tariffs. America can easily out-last China and collapse their attempts at an economic revival if they decide to engage in a trade war. Journalists who make money off sensationalism will tell you otherwise, despite not looking at (and if they did, not understanding) data presented to them, and should be treated like traitors.

 

[AncientPhosphur]

Amazon is cancelling inventory from China

https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1909979123226992909

 

[I'm Retarded?]

This was already posted but I found it apt to post again.

View attachment 7198147

lol is this supposed to be some kind of nuclear own? because right now these people are just overdosing on oxy because their lives and the lives of everyone around them are fucked beyond their ability to cope with it. I fail to see how this represents a dystopian alternative.

 

[Captain Chromosome]

"Why is everybody screaming? I'm nosediving this plane, but I'm doing this to spite that Chinese passenger over there, okay? The plane will crash, but I pinky promise no one will end up crippled or dead. Now go back to your seat."

The flight crew has been telling us everything is okay despite us seeing the tank's been damn near empty for the past God-knows-how-long. The new pilot is trying a hard landing rather than continuing the lie, and we might all die nonetheless but it's better than the status quo that will inevitably kill us.

 

[BillTheButcher]

The midterms are like 18 months away. That's an eternity in a world where the public has the memory span of a goldfish. Calm your tits.

18 months to tear down the entire system, and build something completely different (and better)** It's not as much time as you think it is.

Also, it's not as much about what people remember in this situation, it's more about what the current state of things are in general. If the economy is good, it's good. I just don't know if anyone can say America will be THRIVING/REBORN in 12-18 months (campaigning will take off well before voting day), with a new industrial base and lowered costs (pre tariffs).

It's probably why he is shit flinging this so early in so this has at least a year to shake out.

Yea, he does have that going for him, but time is of the essence still. He still needs company's to start moving production SOON, if he wants to claim a victory by midterms. If company's are just starting to have production chain conversations by that time, I'd think it would be too late for midterms and people will still just be pissed about high prices. We will see.

 

[hihest]

"China is not a seeker of trouble. But make no mistake: When Challenged, we will NEVER back down."

 

[NoIdeaWhatImDoing]

20% of China's total exporter economy)

nah, it's more like 15%, china has been trying to diversify too.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I highly doubt anyone has any more experience in this thread with the Chinese Supply Chain than I do. Sure, their products range from adequate to even good but that's not the problem I'm talking about. The supply chain itself is completely fucking broken. The Chinese cannot handle any of even the most basic of logistical issues. They are unironically zog tier retards and are so disorganized it's not even funny. Their logistics aren't there and they haven't been there for thousands of years and that's why they would lose a war to the US every single time. Their armies just aren't nearly as efficient or as smart at basic problem solving than Americans are. Work with international anything long enough and you'll come to understand that outside of a few key places, the rest of the world is genuinely just dumber than the US. There's no ifs, ands, or butts about it. Most of the world is just dumber than the average US citizen and that certainly includes your average chink.

I actually have a fair bit of experience directly working with manufacturers in China. You're not entirely wrong.

I am reminded of a time that an entire assembly line was brought down for over a month in Suzhou because the tiny, rubber, temporary protective sleeve we put over the threads of a dozen M8 machine screws to protect the threads during shipping changed color. Our SKU source number was identical. Identical chemical composition and physical properties. Same certificates of conformance. The supplier's base material just started using a different dye for cost reasons.

This change kicked off weeks of endless meetings with an ever growing number of people from the CCP. They demanded answers, monetary compensation, a full recall at our expense. "These sleeve were always yellow in the past. Now they are blue. This is unacceptable". Yet not one person could point to a requirement that they be yellow. Our only requirement on the contract documents was to "protect threads during shipping and handling."

We even brought our supplier's CEO in on a meeting to explain to the Chinese that they had changed their dye color because it was cheaper and had no impact on form, fit or function. That caused them to start demanding we test them against the yellow ones to make sure. But since they didn't have yellow ones anymore and neither did we, there was no way to test them. They even accused us of sending them fraudulent material certifications because... and I shit you not... "how can they be the same but a different color?"

In the end, we found a different supplier who still made them in Yellow. At 10X the cost. The dumb fucks then sent them all back to us and we had to replace the disposable blue sleeves with the disposable yellow ones before they would accept them.

...and the first thing the worker did when pulling them out of the box in China was to pull off the yellow sleeve and throw it away.

They ARE profoundly incapable of dealing with any disruption, no matter how trivial.

 

[Nobunaga]

I just had a little look-see about the US-Mexican automotive trade relationship, and a quick google search is telling me that Mexico exported $137b in automotive goods while only importing $33b.

What that means is that $104b of the $170b trade deficit the US has with Mexico is the auto industry. Very interesting.

Maybe because the average mexican doesn't have the purchasing power of an average american so they can't afford the pile of dogshit known as fully made in the US cars?

 

[Male Idiot]

Just be honest and admit you want slaves

I kind of do but I don't want nignogs near me.... it is complicated. Better pick my own cotton.

My nigger, a pair of Chuck Taylors retail for $90 NOW, there is NO FUCKING WAY that shoe does not cost more than $5 to produce. There is still plenty of room to make money on the shoes at 90 fucking dollars if they now all of a sudden cost $30 to make in the USA.

Edit: I even have a very good example of this. This is a 100% Japanese made Chuck Taylor. Japanese sourced canvas, stitched together by Japanese Labor, made in the goddamn land of the Rising Sun.

A basic, cheap shoe, made by labor that is not paid slave wages. How much is it?

View attachment 7198083

15,400 yen, which is at today's conversion rate... $106 USD. In Japan, for 10 more dollars than my Vietnamese imported shoe, the Japanese can get the same shoe, made by Japanese hands, with Japanese materials. I'm sure we can do the same, eventually, again.

Theoretically yes. But Trump loves CEOs. So the profits will need to go up.

"Making all the things China does now here in the States will give people good paying jobs because those jobs will be done by robots" is a hilarious position.

Surely the CEOs won't keep the robots profit for themselves and deny health insurance claims?

aka STOP HARSHING MY VIBES MAN

You people are trapped in the 90s, which is kinda appropriate given that you'll be getting the 90s Russia experience soon enough.

That will make a man out of the mutts. Da!

This got me thinking, will tariffs affect Sonichu medalion prices?

The greatest US export ever. We must keep this national treasure afoot.

This all makes a lot more sense when you imagine Trump as a Mao-like figure trying to usher in a cultural revolution/great leap forward.

The Yuge and Bigly Leap Forwards, it will be great and amazing yes!

They're not, unless you count @WelperHelper99 as an American Auto manufacturer.

Mormons make great horse buggies so he is hecking valid a car maker. Or is that Amish? All the same kookery.

 

[Kalsarikännit]

Maybe because the average mexican doesn't have the purchasing power of an average american so they can't afford the pile of dogshit known as fully made in the US cars?

The reason is manufacturing moved there for cheaper labor.

 

[Fae Supremacist]

Actually, I hope the Tariffs on the EU are permanent.

Good luck with that. You don't need to stinking allies, except the God's Chosen state.

 

[Imperial Citizen]

Then I guess it's important to get out of Trump's way and let him do what must be done. He is doing a Halo 2 LASO speedrun on a global scale. There is a path to victory. Retards panicking doesn't help.

The problem is that we have no idea what the “path to victory” is. The administration has not put out a coherent plan for returning manufacturing back to the US besides the pressure of tariffs.

Economies fear uncertainty. Without any sort of outline for how to reshape the American economy, panic will set in. Investment will slow down. Consumption will drop. Businesses will fail.

The economy can bounce back if there was just a simple guide for what can be done to fix the downturn. If there was trust and support from the administration to do something to keep the American economy afloat.

The only messages that has come out from the administration and its talking heads is that you will suffer. You will just have to bear the pain of higher prices for an unspecified amount of time and then you will be rich. If that’s the only signal for the future, then no shit, people are going to panic.

 

[bliblblblbbllb]

If I'm a zoomer with no plans to buy a house or anything like that for the next 5-10 years (I never expected to be able to do so in my 20s anyways), is this still bad? My job is low paying but very future-proof. I don't have any debt. I don't drive so I don't care about gas price.

Why would I not want the market to dip as hard as possible? My life with money started in the pandemic and everything going to shit apparently was a very good time to start buying VOO. If you plan to retire during Trump's presidency, why is the market apparently hurting those people so bad, why isn't all their money in bonds or safer things? If you're in your 30, 40s, 50s it probably sucks I guess, or in a career that's going to be sensitive to the tariffs.

The standard American lifestyle imo is full of cheap excesses. There are far more people who buy cheap shit they don't need at all than people who wouldn't be able to have things if they couldn't purchase a cheap Chinisium version. I think it's funny when people start going "omg we've got to break out the Great Depression recipes" when they would almost certainly be healthier if they DID start eating meatloaf and noodles and dandelion salads instead of fast food and processed foods. Almost everyone I know has at least one drawer of clothes they never actually wear. Most homeless people are FAT because it's so cheap to eat the day old donuts, bulk purchased sugar cereal, and processed bread that's constantly donated, not to mention where the EBT money is going.

I know this is only one aspect of it, but I have no issues with the Chinisium loophole market going away. All those weird fake companies on Amazon. All the Alibaba and Temu shit. All the cardboard furniture and fast fashion clothes. It's definitely bad for the economy to even say this, but we simply need less stuff overall. It shouldn't be profitible for China to mail garbage around the world for the US to buy.

 

[Bunny Tracks]

A generation at least. Trump saying that there's going to be pain felt by Americans for the next 2 years is him spitballing a number out of his ass, it'll take much longer and that's assuming companies dropped everything and started building massive factories this exact second. Plus, with the rise of automation, just getting factories isn't exactly going to address a worsening job crisis.

I don't know why everyone's ignoring this when it's the crux of the issue. This entire situation basically boils down to putting the cart before the horse.

 

[FamicomGorby]

I just had a little look-see about the US-Mexican automotive trade relationship, and a quick google search is telling me that Mexico exported $137b in automotive goods while only importing $33b.

What that means is that $104b of the $170b trade deficit the US has with Mexico is the auto industry. Very interesting.

Makes sense, several automakers have branch plants set up in Mexico specifically to export to the US and a lot of cars intended for the Mexican domestic market don't meet US highway safety standards.

I know this is only one aspect of it, but I have no issues with the Chinisium loophole market going away. All those weird fake companies on Amazon. All the Alibaba and Temu shit. All the cardboard furniture and fast fashion clothes. It's definitely bad for the economy to even say this, but we simply need less stuff overall. It shouldn't be profitible for China to mail garbage around the world for the US to buy.

Trump killing consoomerism would definitely be a positive.

 

[FootballBuff]

Another parallel is recently SIG was caught using manufacturing in India for parts of the M18. So even weapons manufacturing is compromised.

Oh my god thats horrifying. Talk about a one sentence horror story. No wonder those things arent drop safe and randomly go off in the holster.

Indians are building our guns so shittily they go off at random and people think Tarriffs are a big deal?

 

[Welfare Bum]

In addition to cutting off the US from rare earth minerals outside of very specific circumstances, China has announced an 84% tariff on US goods.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-holds-back-retaliation-opts-strategic-messaging-through-white-paper-trade

 

[Fae Supremacist]

"China is not a seeker of trouble. But make no mistake: When Challenged, we will NEVER back down."
View attachment 7198178

Hate to be the one posting xitter screencaps, but still.

 

[EatFatWomen]

Good luck with that. You don't need to stinking allies, except the God's Chosen state.

France is threatening war with Iran over the nuclear deal.

Your dying continent won’t escape lol.