US US Politics General 2 - Discussion of President Trump and other politicians

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Should be a wild four years.

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In summary, manufacturing coming back to America if done correctly won't be a return to sweatshop labor and low IQ jobs. It will bring advances in industry and offer people who are willing to learn a lot of opportunities. Arguably with the same amount of down time that people in offices have thanks to automation.
As someone who has ins with Toy Manufacturing including those who are contracted by Sideshow Collectibles, Hot Toys etc. I can confirm as well that, injection molding has come a long way.

Most of the Elegoo Mars and 4K resin printers are what toy companies use now for rapid prototyping, topology of assets in models are then sent to CAD based plates. Most of these are aluminum (very common metal in states) and are carved to the decimeter just as the treasury does with Coin Minting. Then your typical ABS and other plastics are actually made here as well, but they are expensive because we haven't had a large enough volume of yield to reduce costs (yet).

Typically as it stands as a Garage Kit maker, you can get a $1200 Plastic Injection Machine with dial temperature radius and hopper, Pellets of ABS and the like for $20 per 10 oz and for $500-600 get temperature yield molding material that won't melt from 500 degrees plus.

That's what I've seen in custom Garage kit world, you open up 20 toy factories. See how much plastic goes down from ABS manufacturers when they have thousands of pounds on order.
 
OK you really got me there. $25 billion for a plant it is then. My mistake.
Why are you such an insistent doomer about it? Like I’ve mentioned before, declining manufacturing hurts wage growth across the entire economy, which you can see by comparing that in 1980 the median household income was $20k and the median home price was $40k. Now the median household income is $80k and the median home price is $400k, so home price outgrew wages 2.5 times

Nobody is going to draft YOU to work in a factory, so how does this effect you so personally?
 
A big issue is what incentives are there to bring manufacturing back, over the companies just doing nothing and waiting out Trump's presidency? As nice as it would be that they'd just do it, reality is a lot of these places won't as the short term costs outweigh the long term ones.
Only the largest and most powerful of corpos ie Apple actually have the ability to wait out Blumpf. 99% of them can't survive four years of stagnant growth and gimped profits.

They'll fold and have to make a deal and Trump will insist the terms favor himself/America.
 
A big issue is what incentives are there to bring manufacturing back, over the companies just doing nothing and waiting out Trump's presidency? As nice as it would be that they'd just do it, reality is a lot of these places won't as the short term costs outweigh the long term ones.
They'll go broke. There's also a not insignificant chance Vance gets in in 4 years and continues the Tarrifs.
 
A big issue is what incentives are there to bring manufacturing back, over the companies just doing nothing and waiting out Trump's presidency? As nice as it would be that they'd just do it, reality is a lot of these places won't as the short term costs outweigh the long term ones.
The ones that can wait out Trump are in the minority, many companies can't do that. They're also betting on tariffs not lasting after Trump which can backfire.
 
The ones that can wait out Trump are in the minority, many companies can't do that. They're also betting on tariffs not lasting after Trump which can backfire.
Even the ones that can don't WANT to. It's a pretty shitty thing to tell your shareholders that profits are down because you won't build one fucking factory to get around these pesky tarrifs
 
Even the ones that can don't WANT to. It's a pretty shitty thing to tell your shareholders that profits are down because you won't build one fucking factory to get around these pesky tarrifs
Shareholders are the least likely to sign off on building a 2 billion dollar manufacturing plant if the chances are in 3 year or so, the cost of outsourcing them goes back down. They know labor is the largest expense and American labor is some of the most expensive.
 
Even the ones that can don't WANT to. It's a pretty shitty thing to tell your shareholders that profits are down because you won't build one fucking factory to get around these pesky tarrifs
To be fair if it is better for shareholders for them to not build factories, then by law they are compelled to do that. A big win would be repealing the precedent set by Dodge v. Ford Motor Co. let a company invest in itself over having to pay shareholders, yeah it'd affect me as well as I benefit from them putting shareholders first but I'd rather the company I invested in still exist beyond my lifetime.
 
A big issue is what incentives are there to bring manufacturing back, over the companies just doing nothing and waiting out Trump's presidency? As nice as it would be that they'd just do it, reality is a lot of these places won't as the short term costs outweigh the long term ones.
They don't even have to wait for a new President. Three days seems to be enough for the current one to flip. The necessary investments are not going to be made without ironclad commitments to stick to it.

The uncomfortable truth is that manufacturing and industry isn't coming back to the US until it has to. As in a Europe/Asia war that either cuts off that supply or destroys it permanently along with the working-age people in those places while leaving mainland US intact. That's how it happened during WWII and gave us the next 50 years of Pax Americana and that's the only way it comes back now. It's not far-fetched either and goes a long way to explain all the meddling we've done over there since the fall of the USSR.
 
Many already have. Apple has, TMSC, Honda, need I go on?
I don't understand why people keep bringing up TSMC in the context of Tariffs enabling US manufacturing. All this shit you mentioned was long before Tariffs became a shiny new toy and was the result of other government backed industrialization efforts.
 
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Most of the Elegoo Mars and 4K resin printers are what toy companies use now for rapid prototyping, topology of assets in models are then sent to CAD based plates. Most of these are aluminum (very common metal in states) and are carved to the decimeter just as the treasury does with Coin Minting. Then your typical ABS and other plastics are actually made here as well, but they are expensive because we haven't had a large enough volume of yield to reduce costs (yet).
Who is buying toys? Children have exactly one toy (their iPad), I don't know what other market could exist for them.
 
I don't understand why people keep bringing up TSMC in the context of Tariffs enabling US manufacturing. All this shit you mentioned was long before Tariffs became a shiny new toy and was the result of other government backed industrialization efforts.
The expansions to the plant were directly due to Trump. They knew tarrifs were coming. They want to keep their operations in the US fully to shield themselves for that.
 
To be fair if it is better for shareholders for them to not build factories, then by law they are compelled to do that. A big win would be repealing the precedent set by Dodge v. Ford Motor Co. let a company invest in itself over having to pay shareholders, yeah it'd affect me as well as I benefit from them putting shareholders first but I'd rather the company I invested in still exist beyond my lifetime.
Even at that, they don’t HAVE to build the factory. They can put bids for subcontractors and fill up the struggling mom and pop type places, for a lot of things

To be crystal clear I’m not implying there are a ton of chip builders around, even though companies like teledyne and teradyne used to do some of that, but I’m saying there are small machine shops in industrial parks all over that still often have mills and lathes they don’t have the work to hire someone to use, and there’s a metal yard not far from where I live that has a gantry crane i haven’t seen move since I’ve lived here, and generally there’s just a ton of idle capacity
 
They knew tarrifs were coming.
This is pure speculation. We realized how fucked we were in 2020 when chips stopped flowing out of Taiwan. Taiwan realized how fucked they were when China began seriously rumbling about retaking the island again. They started building in 2021.
 
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