US US Politics General 2 - Discussion of President Trump and other politicians

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Should be a wild four years.

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Current members of the House of Representatives
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To be fair if it is better for shareholders for them to not build factories, then by law they are compelled to do that. A big win would be repealing the precedent set by Dodge v. Ford Motor Co. let a company invest in itself over having to pay shareholders, yeah it'd affect me as well as I benefit from them putting shareholders first but I'd rather the company I invested in still exist beyond my lifetime.
I feel like, given the current makeup of corporate decision-makers, untethering them from shareholder accountability re: producing shareholder returns might just result in them going 100% in on DEI and climate stuff.
 
It’s going to be a necessary task.
It won't be a completed task before the midterms.
China took the work by hostile means, and this is not sustainable. You want to build them a bigger navy?
They will keep building ships of war regardless of whether or not Americans are walking around in shoes made by Xi's sixth cousin twice removed.
Who is buying toys? Children
Wouldn't you like to know.
 
I feel like, given the current makeup of corporate decision-makers, untethering them from shareholder accountability re: producing shareholder returns might just result in them going 100% in on DEI and climate stuff.
You mean they didn't when they had to be accountable to shareholders? I feel you bud but I think they're gonna go money chasing and DEI doesn't sell unless you get government grants to write off the costs.
 
If Trump actually did/said this (I've found no evidence that headline is true) he could win the 18 to 30 year old male vote for the Republican party for life

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I know a couple of severe TDS people who've agreed that, if renegotiating tariffs and regulations allowed them to buy a Toyota Hilux, they'd accept that as a win.
 
It's doesn't replace a worker is supplants having an experienced welder with having literally anyone willing to work with it while they hone their own skills.
A lot of the people arguing against onshoring of manufacturing and its viability have exactly one mental model of how factories work, which is 50 year old men in dying industries using archaic manual processes learned through blood, sweat and tears. Any solution that doesn't immediately restore exactly that is simply infeasible to them. When in reality, its like starting up any other business or industry, you work with what you got and what tools are available. If all they have is zoomers and six figure CnC hardware, they'll figure out how to make it work. Besides, a $100k machine in a machine shop is a bargain, not a horrific burden. For context, fitting out a new restaurant can run you anywhere from 500k to a million, easy. People don't really have a good context of the scale of the money that goes into any slightly serious business venture.

American manufacturing doesn't need to be instantly perfect in its planning day one, doesn't instantly have to have a matured labor and skills market day one. It doesn't need to immediately replace everyone, everywhere all at once when it comes to the supply of goods. All it needs to do is provide a tariff-enforced cheaper option that can be scaled up, and the markets can work with that. If they can pivot to just 20% of the supply chain being primarily domestic, then they've got a 20% of their production that's now predictable and immune to trade war and geopolitical bullshit, which they can scale up. Importing the other 80% to meet demand becomes an unfortunate cost to be reduced over time.

The companies that get ahead of this now and become the first movers become the prime candidates for investment, and we'll rapidly see this turn into an AI situation - Investors will see X company making Y% returns beyond market norms that they attribute to onshoring, and will start expecting every business they're investing in to show them their onshoring adoption plans. The ones with good plans and good progress (Or good bullshitting skills, but nothing is perfect) on them will continue to receive investor capital, which can offset much of the initial loss and pain period - AI's burned hundreds of billions of dollars to create a chatbot that still can't handle working a drive-thru, its not hard to imagine investors being much more open wallet around industries with literal centuries of financial history and profits behind them.
 
I feel you bud but I think they're gonna go money chasing and DEI doesn't sell unless you get government grants to write off the costs.
Oh, the company will lose money, but that's the company's problem. You've already got your golden parachute and can move onto the next target once this one is drained.
 
It won't be a completed task before the midterms.
No, probably not, but again. Imports can be re-sourced through a ton of different places in the short term, and the investment pledges were getting will be showing up on balance sheets and making work for construction guys by then.
They will keep building ships of war regardless of whether or not Americans are walking around in shoes made by Xi's sixth cousin twice removed.
They got the money to do it from us. They’re continuing to get the money to do it from us, or we’re until last week

@Kuritan Deplorable wait until the 3D printer kids find out that shit counts as manufacturing
 
Who is buying toys? Children have exactly one toy (their iPad), I don't know what other market could exist for them.
There are still kids that play with toys. A lot of parents these days set hard limits or don't even give the tike a screen the moment the exit the birth canal. Sure there are some that will sit in a stroller at the zoo with their face attached to a phone but there's also plenty of kids running around without a screen as well. The park by where I live is always packed with children and their parents/grandparents.

Plus. There's a bunch of adults that buy toys for themselves.
For as long as their parents keep paying for the apps and phone they have a pacifier but not a innovation tool. Kids don't use iPads like adults. They watch silly bs from other creators, mimic them and become robots to trends. Toys inspire creativity and imagination, which is why zoomer liberals have none because they were raised as trend followers not innovators from same "iPads" at age 5.

Long run, kids without some tangible way to express themselves into something they love or make will continue to make them robots. Even before Hasbro and LEGO became adult oriented to Soy-Boys, the companies use to know that creativity was key as by this original quote by Company in 70's.

View attachment 7218180

(And before you go woke trash on Doll House quote, LEGO bricks were first developed as design and architecture. Which I believe the company is incentivizing that a boy may be prone to building a house which may inspire him to be into drafting or construction.)
I love lego as a toy. When the kids are small you don't even have to worry about getting particular sets. My kids like to build little animals and "houses" for them as an example. The worse thing i have to do is buy eyes in bulk.
Not only that but I'm all in favor of reducing luxurious models/trims from non-luxury car brands that we can go without. Maybe that'll get the consumers to quit wasting money on shit they don't need, like any F-150 that goes above the Lariat name and have trims like the King Ranch be a limited time offer.
I'm just tired of seeing sun roofs on every single vehicle. I drive a borderline minivan, I don't need a sunroof.
 
A big issue is what incentives are there to bring manufacturing back, over the companies just doing nothing and waiting out Trump's presidency? As nice as it would be that they'd just do it, reality is a lot of these places won't as the short term costs outweigh the long term ones.
The incentives are the tariffs and trade negotiations. This has been rehashed over and over and over in this thread so forgive me if I sound annoyed or am curt.

Tariffs lower revenue for businesses. If businesses try to make the consumer take the hit for the tariffs while manufacturing abroad and then consumption drops, so they loose profits anyways. Same with trade deals, alot of us goods cannot be sold around the world, get them to accept American products and then that's more markets for the American businesses to reach, so more money. If you are an American businesses that suddenly can sell your products world wide and get tariffed for having your products made in another country the only decision that makes sense is to increase production and do that production domestically so you can sell to these new markets while also avoiding tariffs
 
I know a couple of severe TDS people who've agreed that, if renegotiating tariffs and regulations allowed them to buy a Toyota Hilux, they'd accept that as a win.
Sadly I think its gonna take an act of congress to remove all the Obama level crap that is required in cars now that add like 10K to the cost with the backup cameras and other safety requirements.

1744648340062.webp

Honestly? I'll take the 200 deaths annually if it means every young American can actually afford a car.
 
Who is buying toys? Children have exactly one toy (their iPad), I don't know what other market could exist for them.
There are still kids that play with toys. A lot of parents these days set hard limits or don't even give the tike a screen the moment the exit the birth canal. Sure there are some that will sit in a stroller at the zoo with their face attached to a phone but there's also plenty of kids running around without a screen as well. The park by where I live is always packed with children and their parents/grandparents.

Plus. There's a bunch of adults that buy toys for themselves.
For as long as their parents keep paying for the apps and phone they have a pacifier but not a innovation tool. Kids don't use iPads like adults. They watch silly bs from other creators, mimic them and become robots to trends. Toys inspire creativity and imagination, which is why zoomer liberals have none because they were raised as trend followers not innovators from same "iPads" at age 5.

Long run, kids without some tangible way to express themselves into something they love or make will continue to make them robots. Even before Hasbro and LEGO became adult oriented to Soy-Boys, the companies use to know that creativity was key as by this original quote by Company in 70's.

View attachment 7218180

(And before you go woke trash on Doll House quote, LEGO bricks were first developed as design and architecture. Which I believe the company is incentivizing that a boy may be prone to building a house which may inspire him to be into drafting or construction.)
I love lego as a toy. When the kids are small you don't even have to worry about getting particular sets. My kids like to build little animals and "houses" for them as an example. The worse thing i have to do is buy eyes in bulk.
Not only that but I'm all in favor of reducing luxurious models/trims from non-luxury car brands that we can go without. Maybe that'll get the consumers to quit wasting money on shit they don't need, like any F-150 that goes above the Lariat name and have trims like the King Ranch be a limited time offer.
I'm just tired of seeing sun roofs on every single vehicle. I drive a borderline minivan, I don't need a sunroof.
 
Haven't seen this posted. Don't have much to say besides, it's a good play on China's part. Hurts but not so bad that we're allowed to howl about it and hit them back hard.

China halts critical rare earth exports as trade war intensifies​

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/japantimes/uploads/images/2025/04/14/463256.JPG
By Keith Bradsher
THE NEW YORK TIMES
archive

Apr 14, 2025

1744648476756.webp

GANZHOU, China –
China has suspended exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, threatening to choke off supplies of components central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world.

Shipments of the magnets, essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles, have been halted at many Chinese ports while the Chinese government drafts a new regulatory system. Once in place, the new system could permanently prevent supplies from reaching certain companies, including American military contractors.

The official crackdown is part of China’s retaliation for President Donald Trump’s sharp increase in tariffs that started April 2.

On April 4, the Chinese government ordered restrictions on the export of six heavy rare earth metals, which are refined entirely in China, as well as rare earth magnets, 90% of which are produced in China. The metals, and special magnets made with them, can now be shipped out of China only with special export licenses.

But China has barely started setting up a system for issuing the licenses. That has caused consternation among industry executives that the process could drag on and that current supplies of minerals and products outside of China could run low.

If factories in Detroit and elsewhere run out of powerful rare earth magnets, that could prevent them from assembling cars and other products with electric motors that require these magnets. Companies vary widely in the size of their emergency stockpiles for such contingencies, so the timing of production disruptions is hard to predict.

The so-called heavy rare earth metals covered by the export suspension are used in magnets essential for many kinds of electric motors. These motors are crucial components of electric cars, drones, robots, missiles and spacecraft. Gasoline-powered cars also use electric motors with rare earth magnets for critical tasks such as steering.

The metals also go into the chemicals for manufacturing jet engines, lasers, car headlights and certain spark plugs. And these rare metals are vital ingredients in capacitors, which are electrical components of the computer chips that power artificial intelligence servers and smartphones.

Michael Silver, chair and CEO of American Elements, a chemicals supplier based in Los Angeles, said his company had been told it would take 45 days before export licenses could be issued and exports of rare earth metals and magnets would resume. Silver said his company had increased its inventory last winter in anticipation of a trade war between the United States and China, and could meet its existing contracts while waiting for the licenses.

Daniel Pickard, chair of the critical minerals advisory committee for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and Department of Commerce, expressed concern about the availability of rare earths.

"Does the export control or ban potentially have severe effects in the U.S.? Yes,” he said.

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Chinese leader Xi Jinping waits briefly for U.S. President Donald Trump to join him for a bilateral meeting at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka in June 2019. | Erin Schaff / The New York Times


Pickard, leader of the international trade and national security practice at the Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney law firm, said a swift resolution of the rare earths issue was necessary because a sustained disruption of exports could hurt China’s reputation as a reliable supplier.

In a potential complication, China’s Ministry of Commerce, which issued the new export restrictions jointly with the General Administration of Customs, has barred Chinese companies from having any dealings with an ever-lengthening list of American companies, particularly military contractors.

One American mining leader, James Litinsky, executive chair and CEO of MP Materials, said rare earth supplies for military contractors were of particular concern.

"Drones and robotics are widely considered the future of warfare, and based on everything we are seeing, the critical inputs for our future supply chain are shut down,” he said.

MP Materials owns the sole rare earths mine in the United States — the Mountain Pass mine in the California desert near the Nevada border — and hopes to start commercial production of magnets in Texas at the end of the year for General Motors and other manufacturers.

A few Japanese companies keep rare earth inventories of more than a year’s supply, having been hurt in 2010, when China imposed a seven-week embargo on rare earth exports to Japan during a territorial dispute.

But many American companies keep little or no inventory because they do not want to tie up cash in stockpiles of costly materials. One of the metals subject to the new controls, dysprosium oxide, trades for $204 per kilogram in Shanghai, and much more outside China.

Rare earth magnets make up a tiny share of China’s overall exports to the United States and elsewhere. So, halting shipments causes minimal economic pain in China while holding the potential for big effects in the United States and elsewhere.

Chinese customs officials are blocking exports of heavy rare earth metals and magnets not just to the United States but to any country, including Japan and Germany. Enforcement of the new export license requirement, though, has been uneven so far among different Chinese ports, rare earth industry executives said.

Most but not all rare earth magnets include heavy rare earths, which are needed to prevent magnets from losing their magnetism at high temperatures or in some electrical fields. Some rare earth magnets are made only from light rare earths and are not subject to export restrictions. Customs officials at a few Chinese ports are tolerating exports of magnets if they have only tiny traces of heavy rare earth metals in them, and if the magnets are not going to the United States.

Officials at other Chinese ports are taking a more stringent stance, however, demanding that exporters run tests to prove that any batch of magnets does not have heavy rare earth metals in them before the magnets can be loaded on a ship for export.

The Chinese export restrictions began taking effect before the Trump administration announced Friday night that it would exempt many kinds of consumer electronics from China from its latest tariffs. Magnet exports continued to be blocked over the weekend, five rare earth industry executives said.

Like most goods from China, the magnets are also subject to Trump’s latest tariffs when they arrive at American ports.

Until 2023, China produced 99% of the world’s supply of heavy rare earth metals, with a trickle of production coming out of a refinery in Vietnam. But that refinery has been closed for the past year because of a tax dispute, leaving China with a monopoly.

China also produces 90% of the world’s nearly 200,000 tons a year of rare earth magnets, which are far more powerful than conventional iron magnets. Japan produces most of the rest and Germany produces a tiny quantity as well, but they depend on China for the raw materials.

China’s Ministry of Commerce did not reply to a request for comment.

The world’s richest deposits of heavy rare earths lie in a small, forested valley on the outskirts of Longnan in the red clay hills of Jiangxi province in south-central China. And most of China’s refineries and magnet factories are in or near Longnan and Ganzhou, a town about 130 kilometers away. Mines in the valley ship ore to refineries in Longnan, which remove contaminants and send the rare earths to magnet factories in Ganzhou.

China’s most famous factory for these magnets is operated by the JL Mag Rare-Earth Company, whose headquarters are in Ganzhou.

The factory supplies the world’s top two electric car producers — Tesla and China’s BYD — with the magnets that power their cars, rare earth industry executives said. BYD has said it buys some of the world’s latest, most powerful magnets from JL Mag, with 15 times the magnetic force per cubic inch of volume as a conventional iron magnet.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping made a special inspection visit to JL Mag’s factory in Ganzhou in 2019, during heightened trade tensions in Trump’s first term. The trip was interpreted as a hint that China was ready to use its control over the materials to disrupt American supply chains, a step it did not take then but is doing now.

China paused the mining of heavy rare earths near Longnan a few years ago because it was causing severe chemical pollution.

On Friday, at the site of one mine near Longnan, a diesel generator was humming and liquids were gurgling through plastic pipes, indicating that at least some mining operations had probably resumed. Heavy rare earths are mined by dumping strong chemicals into holes dug in the top of a hillside. The chemicals dissolve the ore and dribble out of the base of the hill, where they can be pumped to nearby pits for initial processing.
 
Shareholders are the least likely to sign off on building a 2 billion dollar manufacturing plant if the chances are in 3 year or so, the cost of outsourcing them goes back down. They know labor is the largest expense and American labor is some of the most expensive.
True, but American labor is also the best quality you can get per dollar. During covid when production slumped I had to make shit from US, Chinese and Canadian steel. Without a doubt the Canadian was the worst shit I've ever had to use and decreased my productivity due to defects in the steel. Chinese was ok but it varies a lot. Long story short, It's never cheaper to outsource. That's a lie that was sold by the business/MBA class to society at large. You still are going to pay the money you normally would pay a US worker but instead of it going into labor and QC it's going into the scrap bin and to 'defects'.
 
Haven't seen this posted. Don't have much to say besides, it's a good play on China's part. Hurts but not so bad that we're allowed to howl about it and hit them back hard.

China halts critical rare earth exports as trade war intensifies​

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/japantimes/uploads/images/2025/04/14/463256.JPG
By Keith Bradsher
THE NEW YORK TIMES
archive

Apr 14, 2025

View attachment 7218245

GANZHOU, China –
China has suspended exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, threatening to choke off supplies of components central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world.

Shipments of the magnets, essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles, have been halted at many Chinese ports while the Chinese government drafts a new regulatory system. Once in place, the new system could permanently prevent supplies from reaching certain companies, including American military contractors.

I'm not an accelerationist, but I love this. Show even the dumbest people how dependent the U.S. has gotten on China and that it can be cut off at the CCP's whim.
 
Sadly I think its gonna take an act of congress to remove all the Obama level crap that is required in cars now that add like 10K to the cost with the backup cameras and other safety requirements.

View attachment 7218236

Honestly? I'll take the 200 deaths annually if it means every young American can actually afford a car.
The cost of a rear view camera isn't the make or break on if "every young American can actually afford a car". Those same young Americans will dump the entire cost of a rear view camera installed on a production line automobile on Uber eats every 30 days rather than learning how to make more than Ramen and Bluebox mac n cheese.
 
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