2025 Israel vs Iran War

That doesn't make sense unless you're schizophrenic.
tracey is raped in the mind

Approximately 28 USAF aerial refueling tankers—a mix of KC-135s and KC-46s—are currently transiting across the Atlantic tonight.

At this time, movements do not appear to be tied to the Atlantic Trident exercise. The deployment may indicate a repositioning effort to support future aircraft ferry operations or other strategic taskings.
 
So important to note a few a things which I spotted and called out earlier:

it was evident that there was priorities being made with the air defense first barrage I’m sure you all noticed there was much more impacts the reason I believe is Iran is now staggering their launches by around 3-4 minutes the first wave is a mixture of old fat heavy lower payload BMs that are trying to bait the interceptors so it looks like Israel made a coordinated decision to ignore some of the lesser yield warheads as a damage reduction type scenario you will notice the delayed second batch (3-4 mins after initial launch) were all successfully intercepted because they are the stupidly fast hypersonic during terminal phase with the 1500kg+ that have huge blast radius get priority.

Interestingly this is the second time they have tested this method which would explain why they are using smaller salvos as they’re essentially trial and erroring.

I think the IDF has a big issue on their hands especially if they are using test rockets with modified warheads to hold not to sound doom but chemical/fission related components.

This would explain why we are seeing lots of ally assets being sent in a hurry I hope I’m wrong but something is very concerning.
If I had to guess, we're shipping Israel big boy bombs to stay out of it. This came together to quick to have any ground element and we'd likely be seeing more planes if that were the case.
 
The USA is making the movement of those planes public on purpose to intimidate Iran. That's why they are allowing them to be tracked on public websites by turning on their public tracking devices. It does appear that Israeli intercepts of incoming Iranian missiles is getting worse, maybe Iran held back or Israel and the USA is running out of Iron Dome defense missiles.
 
it was evident that there was priorities being made with the air defense first barrage I’m sure you all noticed there was much more impacts the reason I believe is Iran is now staggering their launches by around 3-4 minutes the first wave is a mixture of old fat heavy lower payload BMs that are trying to bait the interceptors so it looks like Israel made a coordinated decision to ignore some of the lesser yield warheads as a damage reduction type scenario you will notice the delayed second batch (3-4 mins after initial launch) were all successfully intercepted because they are the stupidly fast hypersonic during terminal phase with the 1500kg+ that have huge blast radius get priority.
In your opinion, how many hypersonic missiles have directly hit Israeli targets/soil?
 
So if these iranian missile attacks keep poking through what are the likelihood we see an Israeli capitulation/Bibi getting thrown out of a ten-story window?
Israel is stuck without US intervention. Air strikes aren't enough to defeat/topple Iran and Israel doesn't have an invasion force not to mention the distance.
 
So if these iranian missile attacks keep poking through what are the likelihood we see an Israeli capitulation/Bibi getting thrown out of a ten-story window?
Well a populace that's only used to 1 or 2 missiles coming from an open air prison is in for a shock when they've got hypersonics and ballistics coming down like Rods from God out of the sky. Still I don't see BiBi getting impeached, the Gaza War is too critical and I don't think anyone wants to rock the boat.
 
In your opinion, how many hypersonic missiles have directly hit Israeli targets/soil?
no idea, i copied pasted from someone i know

So if these iranian missile attacks keep poking through what are the likelihood we see an Israeli capitulation/Bibi getting thrown out of a ten-story window?
zero
 
I think the IDF has a big issue on their hands especially if they are using test rockets with modified warheads
I would agree Iran is doing a trial and error approach. They're using their Al Jazzera, spies and open source intel to tell them how they are preforming each wave.

I don't think its a massive issue for the IDF because you can quickly find out what tactic they are using and adjust your system to prioritize. Guarantee you the US is helping them analyze and adapt. Combine that with the fact that the Israel AF has air superiority over the Persian skies and are playing wack a mole with missile erectors and it will quickly take the bite out of whatever missile tactics they are using.

Iran's advantage is that the Haj Qasem Soleimani & the Fattah are dependent on solid fuel which means quick reloading and launch and those are the deadliest ones. The ones that a liquid fueled take time to prepare and are easier targets.

GtcwuYYXgAAzABI.webp
Haj Soleimani solid fuel ballistic missile.
 
I don't think its a massive issue for the IDF because you can quickly find out what tactic they are using and adjust your system to prioritize. Guarantee you the US is helping them analyze and adapt. Combine that with the fact that the Israel AF has air superiority over the Persian skies and are playing wack a mole with missile erectors and it will quickly take the bite out of whatever missile tactics they are using.
US didn't just send 28 refueling planes racing towards CENTCOM for fun, Israel is in severe trouble from what I'm hearing
 
A few reasons, Tehran is like NYC in terms of density, even more dense actually. Those surgical strike hellfire drones are being used with care in mind. Iran can indiscriminately bomb Israel but Israel cannot do the same to Iran without killing scores of people and pissing off the bleeding hearts all over the world. They also need to preserve the good will of the Iranian people and using surgical strikes buys that opportunity.
Oh come on man, you think the IDF gives a shit about PR at this point? Did you see what they did to Beirut? They were trying to "win hearts and minds" there too and they fucking levelled entire blocks and ran up tons of collateral damage. If Iran's air defenses were literally nonexistent the IDF would be doing the exact same thing.
Beyond that, theres the issue of the F-35's own limitations of fuel, drag and weight. Supposedly secret modifications have been made to them to increase their range but in order to keep their stealth capability and distance, they need to keep a light load which means no big boom bombs. Israel also has FPV suicide drones at their disposal and long range ones it can risk getting shot down over Tehran vs the protected nuclear and missile sites.
But this is fair enough. Still, over the past few days it seems like Israel hasn't really kept up tempo with the impressive first day of strikes whereas Iran has steadily escalated.

Another question: the USAF and USN operated over Yemen for over a year against the Houthis and yet Houthi air defenses were sufficient to threaten to hit F-35s, to indirectly destroy 3 Super Hornets and to down a few dozen Predator drones, and that was with no serious airpower of their own. While I'll grant that the IAF is a world-class airforce it clearly can't match the US and while the Houthis may be tough they aren't on the same level as Iran. So how exactly is Israel going to succeed on its own even if they secure the level of aerial dominance that the US had over Yemen?

I'm definitely biased but I seriously want to hear the alternative theories.
 
I don't think its a massive issue for the IDF because you can quickly find out what tactic they are using and adjust your system to prioritize. Guarantee you the US is helping them analyze and adapt. Combine that with the fact that the Israel AF has air superiority over the Persian skies and are playing wack a mole with missile erectors and it will quickly take the bite out of whatever missile tactics they are using.
I don't think its a massive issue for the IDF *Haifa Power plant explodes* because you can quickly find out *Weizzman Institute burns down* what tactic they are using and adjust your system *Nevatim Airbase gets hit again* to prioritize. Guarantee you the US is helping them analyze and adapt. *Haifa refinery goes up in flames* Combine that with the fact that the Israel AF has air superiority *IAF planes stay away from Iranian space altogether* over the Persian skies and are playing wack a mole *gets hit with a 7th wave of missiles* with missile erectors and it will quickly take the bite out *Israeli ministry of defence building gets leveled* of whatever missile tactics they are using. *27 US tankers panic rush over to Israel to help*
 
the USAF and USN operated over Yemen for over a year against the Houthis and yet Houthi air defenses were sufficient to threaten to hit F-35s, to indirectly destroy 3 Super Hornets and to down a few dozen Predator drones
The USN shooting down one of its own F-18s and another one snapping the arrestor wire and sliding off the flight deck isn't indirectly caused by Houthi anything. The 1 that slid out of an open hangar because the carrier had to sharply maneuver from an incoming missile attack was. Predator drone max speed is 135mph, not really hard to shoot one down. There was allegedly one incident where F-35s were "threatened," it was flying in conjunction with F-18s with no further details. Houthis probably saw the F-18s on radar, fired, and the F-35s were right there so all of them went evasive
But this is fair enough. Still, over the past few days it seems like Israel hasn't really kept up tempo with the impressive first day of strikes whereas Iran has steadily escalated.
Israel used like 1/3 of its entire Air Force on Friday night, that's not sustainable for sure. Iran has fired fewer missiles in each barrage from their first one too, ~150 to ~100 to in between 50 and 100 now
So how exactly is Israel going to succeed on its own even if they secure the level of aerial dominance that the US had over Yemen?
Iranian air defense appears to be at a lower level than the Houthis rn. You don't see any SAM videos from Iran, it's all AA cannon tracer rounds looking pretty in the sky. Houthis always had SAMs still operating vs the US. From how many places in Iran are getting hit looks like Israel scaled back to a few dozen planes (which can still hit one target very heavily each) in each attack since the first one
28 refueling planes is more than plenty, IAF only has 8 in total iirc
IAF has 14 on paper, seven 707s and seven KC-130s
 
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