2025 Israel vs Iran War

[draggs]

You keep reposting this 3 year old report written by a shill for the rabidly anti-Iran, fervently pro-Isreal FDD.

And again here is the resolution of the IAEA Board of Governors adopted and published on June 12 https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-38.pdf

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

You keep reposting this 3 year old report written by a shill for the rabidly anti-Iran, fervently pro-Isreal FDD.

Yes, to contextualize what the NPT report issued on the 12 says. I'm sorry you're too dumb to look up the original IAEA report to contest it.

And again here is the resolution of the IAEA Board of Governors adopted and published on June 12 https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-38.pdf

Sections e - i benefit from the contextualization of the link that I provided because they aren't explicit about this being a reference to project Amad

 

[Ghostse]

"100 pages of Jew seething? Why do we need 200 pages of Jew seething? Surely 300 pages of Jew seething is enough."

Never forget the 6 million pages of Jew seething.

What are they probably giving Iran?

its not what they're giving them. Its what they're selling them.

I'm hearing parts to get their Early Warning and possibly AAD RADARs back online, I'm also hearing absolutely dogshit nothing and its evacution flights for citizens/staff/stuff China doesn't want blown up by the jews.

The early warning RADARS is likely as those would spun as "reducing the civilian death toll" since knowing IDF jets are inbound would give civilians addtional time to get to shelter and thus could be pitched as not being a hostile action/China taking a side.The fact those same parts could be used to get SAM sites online well that's just coincidence.

For all practical purposes. Military installation that is 100m underground is only vulnerable to a MT class devices.
For 400m deep installation of significant importance you would go in with multiple MT yield weapons and drop them one after another into the hole previous one created and that would still require at least 5 or more strikes as quality of rock increases deeper you go.

You are assuming MT levels of seismic hardening. Cheyenne Mountain had seismic isolation for a near-hit by a multi-mega ton warhead, and it was massively expensive.

here's the issue with seismic isolation on that scale at that depth: Either you create an underground vault, basically dig out a hollow chamber, reinforce it, and put your facility inside on what is effectively or in reality big ass springs, or you attempt to build your facility into the rock and allow vibration between the sections.

The first way, you have to dig a lot more, spend lots more on materials like highgrade reinforced concreete, and you create a sizeable void in the earth which is more likely to collapse if compromised, and potentially catastrophic collapse, especially at Fordow's purported depth, where the weight of the earth above will turn a small defect into a a complete and rapid failure.
The upside is you can create some serious seismic isolation such that until that shell goes your facility will persist. Your personnel might still die of pressure wave depending on how well insulated your compound is/how well it deflects the wave, but yoru facility will be intact.

The second way is much less likely to cause a catastrophic collapse but you are limited in how much siesmic isolation you can add.

There are also various hybrids, like instead of a true vault you just put in a reinforced concreate slab "ceiling".

I just really doubt Iran went to the effort, expense, and engineering of megaton levels of siesmic isolation and pressure deflection, just relying on depth and uncertainty of the precise layout/location as defense.

 

[merpalerpaherp]

Everyone is saying a US war against Iran is just going to be a bombing campaign but what happens when Iran launches a counter-attack that kills a bunch of US servicemen and leaves the US embarrassed and the entire US political establishment calls to escalate the war? I know Israel already gave them a bloody nose but it's hard to believe they're ready to be destroyed when they've been preparing for this exact scenario since the 80s.

Proper planning prevents piss poor performance.

 

[Dana scully]

This is fake. That plane landed in Ashgabat

https://x.com/IanECox/status/1934145067909808565

1. This flight landed in Ashgabat before going on to Luxembourg.
2. It did not enter China.
3. You can even see the color change in its track as it descended to Ashgabat. That change in color means it's getting lower.
4. Cargo planes (more than any other) often make stops outside of the route shown on FR24.. in this case CGO-LUX
5. Once a plane it shown as flying on a "estimated" track or grey line, it doesn't mean that it's in that location. It's merely showing what the usual track is between the origin and destination is based on previous flights, but in this case.. Iranian airspace is closed

View attachment 7520979

I keep telling you guys not to trust Ali Alexander. He's a pederast and a liar.

Oh my bad, okay then go to sleep and rest you been posting in this thread for 4 days straight.

 

[gay porn is the best porn]

I'm hearing parts to get their Early Warning and possibly AAD RADARs back online, I'm also hearing absolutely dogshit nothing and its evacution flights for citizens/staff/stuff they don't want blown up by the jews.

another question: how many missiles can Iran launch now that Israel has bombed a lot of the facilities that could launch them?

 

[Audit]

The WW3 lore growing
View attachment 7520955

L

This isn't as unlikely as some might expect. China imports a ton of oil from Iran at bargain rates. Math tells me that the Chinese will see fit to ship over some anti-air defenses to test against Israeli/American aircraft.

 

[Ghostse]

another question: how many missiles can Iran launch now that Israel has bombed a lot of the facilities that could launch them?

No one knows. I doubt even Iranian/RG command knows for certain at this point.

Also are we talking Ballistic missiles to kill the jews or Air Defense missiles to try to keep the jews from killing them?

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

another question: how many missiles can Iran launch now that Israel has bombed a lot of the facilities that could launch them?

Currently 5-30 at a time but getting more accurate. They're stuck with TELs that force them to shoot and scoot

 

[Dawdler]

I just really doubt Iran went to the effort, expense, and engineering of megaton levels of siesmic isolation and pressure deflection, just relying on depth and uncertainty of the precise layout/location as defense.

It may be just easier to dig deeper than rely on isolation.
You can kill without penetration due to spalling and effects of actual ground compressing and expanding when hitting with MT yield heads. For imagination it is comparable to tanks being hit by a mine/IED and tankers getting the chair shot into their body cavity by the relative change in velocities and they staying static.
Iran does use high strength concrete and I would assume they put a 1m layer around and around to prevent fissures.
Having such deep facilities is an issue in itself as any water will be at 40 bar or more pressure, more than smaller submarines withstand and you can't really fully concrete walls anymore due to amount of flow there is. You build a shelter within a shelter so you are not swimming like a fish.
Iran is not stupid, but I've seen centrifuges bolted to concrete, which I assume is floor of a cave so I think they just don't care as much and have been planning for such a response for a while.
The entire military can probably hide in ground installations and weather out any attack. Having an air superiority over desert is just expensive and time consuming and opens israel and usa to attack from another region.
Having their carriers stupidly concentrated in one spot also means that USA can loose their entire fleet in a matter of minutes.
2 carriers in Hormuz straight is a practical suicide as one ending can be blocked by Houtis and the other is just relying on agreements with muslim Egypt, to let them a safe passage. If they change their minds, there's no escaping the self made trap.
The rest scattered around iran is a good target practice for any sub.

 

[WangOfDamocles]

It gets worse...

The Israel planning chief at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Col. Nathan McCormack, believes that Israel is a "death cult," America's "worst ally" and seeks to "cleanse ‘Eretz Israel’ of ethnic Palestinians," according to his semi-anonymous X account.

Experts told me his posts revealing travel, conversations with foreign partners and "anti-Israel rants" were "gobsmacking," "dangerous," "out of place in a Pentagon" that works so closely with Israel, and potential foreign intelligence threat.

https://x.com/andrewjbernie/status/1935050076969214448

A groyper was in charge of Israel planning at the jsc

You're telling me that a man in a position of power was removed from that position because he did not have the correct option about Israel?

Well now I've heard everything.

 

[The Big A]

another question: how many missiles can Iran launch now that Israel has bombed a lot of the facilities that could launch them?

Dunno. I saw Tel Aviv get hit by 12 missiles tonight in a single salvo, and judging by other vidoes, the effectiveness of Israeli air defense has much diminished.

So enough that they can't send 100+ missiles per salvo but not enough for the Iron Dome to actually fend off the attacks.

It may be just easier to dig deeper than rely on isolation.
You can kill without penetration due to spalling and effects of actual ground compressing and expanding when hitting with MT yield heads. For imagination it is comparable to tanks being hit by a mine/IED and tankers getting the chair shot into their body cavity by the relative change in velocities and they staying static.
Iran does use high strength concrete and I would assume they put a 1m layer around and around to prevent fissures.
Having such deep facilities is an issue in itself as any water will be at 40 bar or more pressure, more than smaller submarines withstand and you can't really fully concrete walls anymore due to amount of flow there is. You build a shelter within a shelter so you are not swimming like a fish.
Iran is not stupid, but I've seen centrifuges bolted to concrete, which I assume is floor of a cave so I think they just don't care as much and have been planning for such a response for a while.
The entire military can probably hide in ground installations and weather out any attack. Having an air superiority over desert is just expensive and time consuming and opens israel and usa to attack from another region.
Having their carriers stupidly concentrated in one spot also means that USA can loose their entire fleet in a matter of minutes.
2 carriers in Hormuz straight is a practical suicide as one ending can be blocked by Houtis and the other is just relying on agreements with muslim Egypt, to let them a safe passage. If they change their minds, there's no escaping the self made trap.
The rest scattered around iran is a good target practice for any sub.

Any carriers would be based hundreds of miles away in the Sea of Arabia. If any of them are sailed into the Strait of Hormuz, that's nothing more than an entire fleet being sacrificed to start a war with Iran.

They are unlikely to send AAD systems at current. That would be a hostile action and picking a side, and potentially a violation of arms sanctions against Iran; the CCP likes their cheap oil but isn't going to bat for the Eternal Persian to that level.

But, parts to repair damaged systems is more likely to fly. As I said a couple posts back, China can pitch getting Iran's early-warning RADARs back online as something done to reduce the impact of the bombing on the civilian population.

China has a serious interest in keeping the current Iranian regime afloat, a pro-western regime being installed there means the vast majority of Chinese oil imports would only flow at Washington's '(or Tel Aviv's) discretion, not the best situation to be in.

 

[Dawdler]

This isn't as unlikely as some might expect. China imports a ton of oil from Iran at bargain rates. Math tells me that the Chinese will see fit to ship over some anti-air defenses to test against Israeli/American aircraft.

It usually is a good practice to train personel and get radar signatures from flying crap so you can filter it from noise the next time there's a problem with your democracy

 

[Ghostse]

This isn't as unlikely as some might expect. China imports a ton of oil from Iran at bargain rates. Math tells me that the Chinese will see fit to ship over some anti-air defenses to test against Israeli/American aircraft.

They are unlikely to send AAD systems at current. That would be a hostile action and picking a side, and potentially a violation of arms sanctions against Iran; the CCP likes their cheap oil but isn't going to bat for the Eternal Persian to that level.

But, parts to repair damaged systems is more likely to fly. As I said a couple posts back, China can pitch getting Iran's early-warning RADARs back online as something done to reduce the impact of the bombing on the civilian population.

 

[merpalerpaherp]

another question: how many missiles can Iran launch now that Israel has bombed a lot of the facilities that could launch them?

This is a very rough estimate because nobody really knows how many they have left but given they have no air control and seemingly cannot stop the Israeli planes I wouldn't expect to see a launch higher than 50 at night. I think that's being overly generous as well.

 

[Dawdler]

Dunno. I saw Tel Aviv get hit by 12 missiles tonight in a single salvo, and judging by other vidoes, the effectiveness of Israeli air defense has much diminished.

Batteries are empty. They have most likely exhausted their supply for major cities, leaving strategic reserve only for priority military targets like Dimona plant. If israelis stupidly migrate their remaining load to those batteries it would mean exposing those targets. Production of THAAD and David's jockstrap missiles is sub 10 a month and they've burned thru many.
What you'll see is US aircraft landing down near telaviv, bringing fresh missiles in following days.
The common iron deficient dome is a nothing burger at this point and just expensive fireworks. I think they also shut it off as they saw it has no purpose in latest attack.

They are unlikely to send AAD systems at current. That would be a hostile action and picking a side, and potentially a violation of arms sanctions against Iran; the CCP likes their cheap oil but isn't going to bat for the Eternal Persian to that level.

But, parts to repair damaged systems is more likely to fly. As I said a couple posts back, China can pitch getting Iran's early-warning RADARs back online as something done to reduce the impact of the bombing on the civilian population.

Just bringing in AA radars or ships with radars and telling Iraqis where the boggies are or aiding with satellite pictures however is not. China will ensure their oil supply one means or another and europe stupidly should too. Thanks to middle east sperging it's already up 20%.

 

[Hermann von Salsa]

this is a position that's pretty widespread among the american population and i dont think the normies that say this stuff know anything about the politics circuit, they just see a few things on tik tok and form a very basic opinion. the reason that most americans think that israel has some occult tomfoolery behind it likely has more to do with bush era israeli agitprop than it has to do with nick fuentes

I remember waking up at the beginning of last year and the first video I saw on TikTok where the Chabad sect of Jews being walked off in hand cuffs and climbing out of sewer grates. A normie will try to rationalize that shit as just being a weird cult separate from normal Jews but at the back of their minds they unwillingly associate all Jews with it.

 

[Ghostse]

It may be just easier to dig deeper than rely on isolation.

The issue with just "go deeper" is you run into the issue submarines run into with depth chargers (though there's no cavitation so the booms need to be bigger) If you can overcome the inertia of the rock, waves will travel very fast and very effectively into the hollows of your facility where hitting the much easier to move (but still dense) air you are very likely to see your personnel killed or crippled by internal injury.

You should look at the kill radius of a 2000-lb bomb, and realize while its in the open air, it doesn't need to land all that close for the shockwave to be lethal.

 

[Ghostse]

China has a serious interest in keeping the current Iranian regime afloat, a pro-western regime being installed there means the vast majority of Chinese oil imports would only flow at Washington's '(or Tel Aviv's) discretion, not the best situation to be in.

Yes, which is the only reason they'd entertain any supply to Iran at all. But they aren't going to hand weapons to the Iranians unless Xi has decided that backing & supplying Iran is the Ziggurat he is going to die on.
and given Iranian involvement in support for the Uighyrs, I don't see that happening. But I'll also admit I've seen weirder/stupider.

 

[thx1138]

The issue with just "go deeper" is you run into the issue submarines run into with depth chargers (though there's no cavitation so the booms need to be bigger) If you can overcome the inertia of the rock, waves will travel very fast and very effectively into the hollows of your facility where hitting the much easier to move (but still dense) air you are very likely to see your personnel killed or crippled by internal injury.

You should look at the kill radius of a 2000-lb bomb, and realize while its in the open air, it doesn't need to land all that close for the shockwave to be lethal.

At detonation, 30 feet from where a Mk.84 hits, the air is as dense as steel and moves outward at fuck you speeds. It drops off super quick but it's not all bomb fragments and heat that fuck up targets where a big boy hits.