A Cardboard Box
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2019
As I said earlier, the objectively best move for the Iranian people, and probably the government, is to leverage a complete stoppage of their nuclear program and offer to host foreign inspectors in return for a cessation of hostilities and humanitarian and rebuilding assistance. They could likely swing it for assistance for their actual civilian nuclear program a la Atoms for Peace if they actually committed to working with international observers.
It sounds like capitulation because, well, it is. The problem is that if they continue their defiance, very likely they are going to lose their nuclear program to hostile action, and with it the vast majority of their leverage. They are losing their launch vehicles hand over fist, their regional proxies are dismantled, and they are burning through their missiles. I tend to agree with assessments that Israel is running out of interceptors, but soon Iran won't have the ability to exploit this depletion.
The only hope Iran has of maintaining their nuclear program and not being dismantled by the relentless air campaign being waged against them is to pray that international pressure and domestic unrest forces Israel to unilaterally stop, but Iran isn't doing itself too many favors by intentionally hitting hospitals and shit.
I put the odds of actual regime change pretty low, but I can see it happening, mainly by a coup by a group of military officers which have entered back channel negotiations with the US and Israel. I find a popular uprising highly unlikely, mainly because the Iranian secret police are extremely good at decapitating nascent rebel groups and controlling information flow.
