There will be no draft. There wasn't one for the GWOT, which was larger in scope and Trump has never favored boots on the ground. He does strikes. Russian isn't helping anyone because they're bogged down in Ukraine and Chernobyl was a once in a lifetime incident that required a series of near impossible events to occur.
First, 2001 Afghanistan, and 2003 Iraq are not the same as 2025 Iran. Afghanistan had no professional military to speak of, and was in the midst of a civil war. Which helped our invasion because there were already would-be allies on the ground. Iraq had already suffered one major military defeat in 1991, and had been on the decline since than. This is of course leaving out the differences between an oppressive secular dictatorship, and a fundamentalist theocracy. Which if you don't think won't drive lots of Iranians to die against the "atheist, homosexual loving, and degenerate" US, well I have a bridge for sale.
Second, the capabilities of militaries has changed in the odd 20 years since the start of those actions. Ukraine, and even prior in Syria, has proven the devastation the cheap small drone can cause to military forces. Which Iran has in vast quantities, and infrastructure to produce; and which the United States is fundamentally lacking in an adequate means to stop. That's not to mention the experience Iranians have gained in Iraq against Americans and our tactics. Iran did supply Iraqi insurgents with IEDs. Iran had advisors in country. The assassination of Soleimani was in direct response to his actions to stir up locals against US presence. This is also leaving out that Russia and China will likely supply Iran with real time intelligence if not material support. Very likely by the Russians in retaliation for us doing the same for Ukraine.
Third, this will not be a war confined to Iran proper. Iran has a vast network of militias in Iraq alone. Remember all those popular mobilization forces that were the actual resistance to ISIS in Iraq? Yeah, Iranian backed. Iraq is a mostly Shia country, and would be easy to stir up into action against the US. That's not to mention all the general jihadists this will stir up because this will be seen as a US/Israel attack on Islam.
Fourth, the American military is not the same military it was. A lot of people are either retired, having been burnt out by multiple deployments, or are simply dead. That's not mention the effects of Obama, and Biden have had on the military. DEI, liberalism, whatever you want to call it has seriously fucked up the military. The simple competence of the average officer and soldier has gone down. You can't have nearly two decades of war, and DEI; and not suffer something to your ability to wage war. Furthermore the military had to engage in stop-loss to keep personnal in theater during our actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will be harder to find recruits this time around, and once the bodies start coming back, and they will. No war is completely one sided. It will be much harder to convince some 17 or 18 year old kid to sign up.
I love America, I don't have any sympathies for islamists. However, I can't but see the sky is blue, the grass is green, and a land war in Iran will given enough time lead to a draft. We will go for regime change. That is the simple fact. The people in washington can't but salivate at the idea of "liberating" and "westernizing" some backwards brown country like Iran. Just think about all the kickbacks from government contracts from everything from bombs to programs to teaching lesbian dance theory.
We need to stay out of Iran.
(Edited to fix my poor writing.)
