2025 Israel vs Iran War

This is going to continue to escalate to that point because Iran is run by fuckin’ ideologies who don’t understand surrender and Trump doesn’t relent until someone says uncle.

This will get significantly worse if Iran decides to close off their oil reserves. Trump will not fuck around, he will put boots on the ground and invade with Israeli support. Trump is already speaking as if we’re poised to go to war.

The problem is that this idea is that if you bomb enough, it will "FIX" the problem in Iran. It is not possible.

Yes, key infrastructure is being destroyed, yes, the Nuke might be slowed down, "maybe".
However, this does not change the fact that Iran can still get the bomb, attack US bases, hit Israel, and so on. Perhaps not today, but over time, they can still pursue these options, and as I have said before, I believe that Iran has two options it might pursue.

1. Wait it out and hit back when they can.
2. Try to get boots on the ground from the US/Israel, as that allows Iran to attack and hurt them.

There has never been a single instance in history when bombings alone have been effective.
Even World War 2 and Japan. The nukes were a significant contributing factor, but they were not the only factor that led to that surrender.

The Soviets had denied the Japanese peace deals and negotiations and were planning to invade.
They suffered from starvation and were spent entirely militarily.
From what I read, the Japanese initially only believed the US had 1 nuke, but when the second nuke hit. This scared the Japanese as they did not know how many bombs the US had, and they could not stop them.
It was also known that in time, the Allies would invade Japan. It was not a question of IF, but WHEN!.
They also believed they could save a lot of Japanese culture, institutions, systems, and so on by surrendering to the Allies rather than the Soviets.

Remember, there was still a military coup against the Japanese emperor, as there were die-hard Japanese officers and personnel who wanted the war to continue, no matter what.

In other words. I would be extremely surprised if Iran were to surrender or return to the negotiating table on this.
There are not enough external factors to compel them, as was the case with Japan.
 
ARASH AZIZI: A group of Iranian businessmen, political and military figures, and relatives of high-ranking clerics, two sources involved in the discussions told me, have begun hatching a plan for running Iran without Khamenei
ARASH AZIZI: The plotters have agreed that a leadership committee consisting of a few high-ranking officials would take over running the country and negotiate a deal with the United States to stop the Israeli attacks.
ARASH AZIZI: The sources were fearful of being discovered but said that they were telling me of their conversations in the hope that the exposure could help them gauge regional and international response. Among the details they shared with me are that former President Hassan Rouhani, who is not involved in the discussions, is being considered for a key role on the leadership committee
ARASH AZIZI: Some of the military officials involved have been in regular contact with their counterparts from a major Gulf country, seeking buy-in for changing Iran’s trajectory and the composition of its leadership.
IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO ARASH AZIZI: "Everybody knows Khamenei’s days are numbered. Even if he stays in office, he won’t have actual power"
ARASH AZIZI: This was before the U.S. bombardment. I reached out to this person just after the explosions in Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan, and he said, “I think the chances of us succeeding to somehow sideline Khamenei have now increased.
ARASH AZIZI: Either way, the mood in Iranian circles close to the regime has bifurcated, I’m told. Some insiders, including the plotters I spoke with, want to sue for a deal with Trump, even if that means ditching Khamenei. Others believe that Iran must fight back, because otherwise it will invite further aggression.
if a coup is known in advance then it's either not real or it has already failed
 
It's less dangerous than hitting an active nuclear reactor. Which works by holding the nuclear fuel in a critical state and moderating and controlling it. The problem there is when you Crack open the lid with explosives you have an active nuclear fission reaction spewing out without any means to shut it down.
The fission reaction itself is incredibly easy to stop, it is keeping it going which is a delicate balancing act not the other way around. What you are talking about is the result of residual decay heat from the fission products.
 
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I blame The Simpsons for the public's complete dearth of understanding RE: nuclear energy. That show is responsible for the notion that nuclear material is glowing green goo that you throw into a tub willy-nilly and then it spontaneously explodes for no reason.

I mean, Chernobyl and Three Mile Island laid some pretty solid groundwork for that notion prior to the Simpsons airing.
 
JPost -- During the call, held after the US decision to strike, the Americans made “several operational requests” from Israel. An Israeli source told the Post: “There was full cooperation between Israel and the US regarding the American strike. It’s true they carried it out—but Israel provided intelligence and contributed to its success.”

JPost -- In the days leading up to the operation, both Israel and the US employed deception tactics to create the impression of a deep disagreement between the two nations on whether the US would participate in the strike. An Israeli source confirmed to The Post that diversionary actions were indeed taken: “Even if the Iranians had known the strike was coming, there wasn’t really anything they could have done to stop it.” National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Sunday: “We knew about the strike—it wasn’t a surprise.”
 
The jews are now attacking from Azerbaijan!
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Iranian drones are entering Israeli airspace from the north, F-35s are attempting intercepts.

View attachment 7541554
I just checked the map, a direct route from Israel to Mashhad is 1375 miles which takes them directly over Tehran

Taking a slight detour over the Capsian to avoid Iranian AAA for 200 miles only adds about 30 miles to the trip.
 
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Short, very oversimplified answer: nukes aren’t just regular bombs with nuclear material strapped on. The radiation associated with nuclear weapons is a result of atoms literally being broken apart, with some of the ejected energy coming in the form of radiation.
Just dropping a bomb on a site filled with nuclear fissile materials like uranium isn’t going to cause that chain reaction.
Nor would it speed up the natural processes like decay that are the cause of why elements like uranium and plutonium are “radioactive.”
There is a way for sympathetic nuclear detonation.
This was concern in first nuclear missiles as proximate detonation of warhead will detonate/fizzle the warhead in nearby missiles too.
This is in no way a full detonation but it is enough to destroy the warhead.
The next designs with pits and explosive lenses were fielded with increased resistance to such events. Gun types are very susceptible to it.
 
the bit about Putin checks out as I'm listening to some interviews he did this morning and he seems quite chill on the whole matter and mostly interested in trying to play a role of mediator between the US, Iran, and Israel
Putin has his hands full in Ukraine and knows that he can't afford to fight on two fronts. I'm pretty sure he's aware of how that turned out for Germany in the 1940s.
 
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