I predict his party will be a laughing stock before it ever contributes anything serious to the political discourse.
Based on my observations, Elon is going to support senate and congressional republicans to push his dumb issues. That could plausibly mean aligning with faggot Massie and other RINOs in the party but I stated this before that if he does that, he will doom Tesla and SpaceX to the shadow realm of irrelevancy. If Trump was floundering and doing bad on the issues, Id say Elon's party would have a greater chance at changing things, but it isn't. Trump is bombing enemies and making them agree to peace in less than 2 weeks, the man has survived 2 assassination attempts and is going to host the 250th anniversary of America, he is stronger than ever after the passing of BBB on the 4th of July.
There's little Elon can do to tarnish Trump when Trump is the embodiment of America consistently. He risks damaging his own credibility (whats left of it) by attacking Trump over asinine issues. I don't think Elon is politically savvy enough to accomplish the statecraft and media blitz that Orange Man has built up. It will be the Lolcow party.