With Republicans in Texas planning to redraw more favorable congressional maps this summer, as the party vies to maintain control of Congress next year, national Democratic leaders are vowing to use every tool at their disposal to counter what they see as a nakedly partisan power grab.
But the toolbox for Democrats is relatively sparse, aside from litigation or legislative protests.
Though Democratic leaders have indicated a willingness to go tit for tat with Republicans, most of the largest blue states do not have a partisan redistricting process akin to the one in Texas, where the governor can simply call in the Legislature to redraw maps.
California has an independent commission in charge of drawing maps, which voters applied to congressional districts in 2010. New York also has a commission (though it is subject to potential legislative changes), and New Jersey’s political commission is separate from the Legislature.
States where Democrats would have complete control over any redistricting, such as Illinois and Maryland, are already gerrymandered heavily in their favor. Squeezing more Democratic seats out of those states would be a challenge.
“Democrats’ leverage is quite limited, and that’s the problem,” said Steve Israel, a former Democratic member of Congress from New York who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. “Republicans are just more ruthless than Democrats. They play to break the rules, and Democrats play to enshrine the rules with fairer processes in places like California.”
While Democrats have their share of aggressive gerrymanders, blue states have led in embracing reforms to insulate redistricting from politics, such as creating an independent or bipartisan commission to agree on new maps.
Such actions — done in the name of good governance and often with significant support from voters — are now leaving Democrats in a bind.
Redistricting typically happens after the once-a-decade census, when districts must be adjusted for population changes to ensure equal representation in Congress and state legislatures. Occasionally, maps are drawn mid-decade, often as a result of a court order.
But Texas is heeding the entreaties of President Trump to create at least five new Republican districts and help stave off a potential midterm loss, as the party out of power in the White House often succeeds in congressional midterms. Texas has 38 seats in the House, with 25 in Republican hands.
The Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, has
defended the decision to redistrict, citing a recent federal court ruling that said districts made up of multiple minority communities — known as coalition districts — are no longer required by federal law (the court did not say, however, that these districts are illegal and must be redrawn).
Mr. Abbott has said the new maps will better allow Texans “to be able to vote for their candidate choice.”
The special session he is calling is also meant to address the recent devastating floods in Texas.
Mr. Trump has been much more explicit about the partisan benefits he is seeking in Texas.
“I think we’ll get five,” Mr. Trump told reporters this month, referring to the number of potential new Republican seats in the state. Mr. Trump floated the possibility of redrawing other states’ maps as well to pick up more seats, but promised “Texas would be the biggest one.”
Infuriated Democrats vowed an equal opposing force.
“Never bring a knife to a gunfight,” Gov. Philip D. Murphy said during a news conference on Monday. He added that it was “too early” to decide if New Jersey would act, but did close with a pledge: “We’re from Jersey, baby, and we won’t be laying down.”
But New Jersey’s maps are drawn by a political commission, and with off-year elections for both governor and parts of the State Legislature, appetite for a risky political move may be waning.
At the same time, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California
warned on social media: “Two can play this game.”
Mr. Newsom, however, cannot simply order a new round of redistricting; an independent commission draws California’s maps. But there is a path.
Representatives for Mr. Newsom have been in talks with Democratic leaders in Congress and in the State Legislature about their options, and California’s representatives have held related meetings.
One possibility would be to put a measure on the ballot asking voters to approve a change to California’s system, though that would require a special election, most likely later this year, so that the maps could take effect before the 2026 elections.
Another option would be for the Legislature to change California law to create a mid-decade map-drawing process or to change the members of the state’s redistricting commission. Such a move would most likely face litigation, but is not impossible, said Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California.
“It’s not out of the question that the governor or the Legislature could at least try to make some changes,” Mr. Grose said, adding that “it would be a very big power grab.”
The Democratic-controlled states with the power to redistrict through their partisan legislatures are taking more of a wait-and-see approach. Carter Elliott, a spokesman for Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland, said the governor would “continue to evaluate all options.” A press officer for Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois did not respond to requests for comment.
Illinois’s congressional delegation has a 14-to-3 Democratic advantage. Maryland’s is seven Democrats to one Republican. Both states would have to eliminate every Republican district to come close to offsetting the potential Texas changes.
“When there are no rules, there are no rules, and it wouldn’t surprise me if states start getting increasingly creative at the voters’ expense,” said Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Law School who also served in the Biden administration. “Conventional constraints don’t exist if we’re really driving the car all the way off the cliff.”
“And absolutely none of this is good for democracy,” Mr. Levitt added.
Of course, Democrats expect to challenge the maps in court. As Mr. Levitt explained, extreme partisan gerrymandering is still unconstitutional, even if the Supreme Court ruled that federal courts
cannot be the arbiters of partisan gerrymanders, leaving maps susceptible to challenges in state courts.
Any new districts could also run afoul of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits racial gerrymandering. With new population growth centered in majority-minority cities like Dallas, Republican map drawers in Texas will also have to clear federal limits on how much a community can be divided.
And leaders like Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic minority leader, have been seeking to make the redistricting battle a national issue. To that end, he gathered Representative Nancy Pelosi, Eric H. Holder Jr., a former attorney general, and Texas Democrats on a virtual call on Wednesday to rally support among the Democratic base against the effort in Texas, including through a campaign to contact members of the Texas Legislature and voice opposition.
“Trump does not want there to be a free and fair midterm election,” said Representative Greg Casar, Democrat of Texas. “He wants to rig those elections right now, starting in Texas, and so we can’t just wait for those elections. We’ve got to have the fight right now.”
