Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

uvaldedeadbodystroker said:
Can someone tell me if Trump is letting go of Europe, or if Trump is unable to keep hold of Europe? Is losing Europe to China a good thing or a bad thing?
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like any lolcow, europeans have a chronic inability to act in their own interests. they will cut off their nose to spite their face, just to ensure the US, specifically trump, doesn't get a "win". this includes playing nicer with China than the US would care for, and negotiating with the iranians as if they were rational, and integrating their energy grid with russia. I would highly recommend reading the effortpost by @Ghostse a few pages back regarding US interests in european security.

obviously, losing europe to china would be a bad thing, but it would also be a bad thing for europe too in many sectors (security, tech, EVs, etc.) where chinese competition would wipe out local european companies, just like has happened in china domestically already (exhibit A: Volkswagen). but we can't rely on the europeans not to put themselves in this position (look at nordstream 2, for fuck's sake).

Fatsuit Shinji said:
Zelensky and Ukraine have the more immediate here and now problem with Russia. Getting on or at least off Trump's bad side right now helps to ensure the next president knows Ukraine will do quid pro quo when ask to and even do so without first being ask.
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it's also transparently in their self interest to help to destroy the SOURCE of the drones that have been attacking them for 5 years.
 
ThisIsGonnaBeGood said:
Trump knows completely abandoning the Strait means Europe will happily bend over and let Iran fuck them in the ass with tolling fees.
France is already running to become BFFs with China rather than do anything that could be seen as helping Trump.
I wouldn't be surprised if, once their missile/drone launch abilities are sufficiently degraded (three weeks is a lot of time when you have complete air supremacy), we unleash those A-10s we've been shipping over to completely wipe out the speedboats, then just go full-hog on the bastards.
Then we get to charge tolling fees, and every country that refused us airspace pays double.
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Ask yourself this; would Europe be better off with Iran the way it always has been, or to see Israel nuked off the face of the earth? Which would benefit Europe more?
 
uvaldedeadbodystroker said:
the Trump plan is to open the strait
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https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/03/us-may-launch-gulf-shipping-reinsurance-scheme/ (paywalled)
Published on 2026-03-31 at 07:29
The United States is understood to be moving to underwrite maritime risk in the Strait of Hormuz. The US government is set to provide a US$20 billion insurance facility. The move is aimed at restoring confidence in Gulf energy trades amid the Iran conflict.
The maritime insurance backstop is intended to support shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as officials seek to stabilise energy flows and calm volatile markets. Speaking during a cabinet meeting at the White House, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the programme would begin “soon”, offering up to US$20 billion in reinsurance cover for vessels operating in the Gulf region. However, the situation in the Middle East remains volatile and dynamic – neither of which is conducive to safe shipping.

Confidence measure for energy trades
The initiative, led by the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in coordination with the US Treasury, is designed to support shipments of oil, LNG, refined products and fertilisers moving through the Gulf during the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Under the plan, Washington will provide a combination of reinsurance, political risk cover and naval support to safeguard maritime trade.
President Donald Trump has framed the measures as part of a broader effort to ease upward pressure on global energy prices while ensuring continuity of supply. The DFC facility will operate on a rolling basis, insuring losses of up to US$20bn and initially focusing on hull and machinery, as well as cargo coverage. Eligibility criteria will apply to participating vessels.
Industry capacity backed by Chubb

Implementation of the scheme is being coordinated with the United States Central Command, a military department, reflecting the security dimension of the initiative. New York-listed insurer Chubb has been appointed lead underwriter, issuing policies for qualifying vessels. Additional US insurers are expected to participate, providing reinsurance capacity alongside the DFC to scale up market coverage.

Bessent indicated that tanker and cargo movements in the Gulf are already beginning to recover, suggesting the programme could accelerate a return to more normal trading patterns. He added that increased traffic was visible “day by day”, even before full security of the strait is restored. The move comes against a backdrop of heightened concern over energy market stability, with US officials arguing that short-term disruption is a necessary trade-off for longer-term security of supply.
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Seems to be going ahead from when it was announced earlier in March. Wouldn't be surprised if the Gulf countries pay in as well. Might end up replacing the london maritime insurance brokers at least for trade that goes through the strait.
 
Fatsuit Shinji said:
Zelensky and Ukraine have the more immediate here and now problem with Russia. Getting on or at least off Trump's bad side right now helps to ensure the next president knows Ukraine will do quid pro quo when ask to and even do so without first being ask.
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It's all pragmatic. Show the rest of the world how effective your drone interceptors are? You will get not only political good will with the help, but money, contracts, and production. By sparing a few hundred soldiers and like a percentage of your defensive capability, you might generate 10x the worth in a short order.
 
Boingboingboingboi said:
obviously, losing europe to china would be a bad thing, but it would also be a bad thing for europe too in many sectors (security, tech, EVs, etc.) where chinese competition would wipe out local european companies, just like has happened in china domestically already (exhibit A: Volkswagen). but we can't rely on the europeans not to put themselves in this position (look at nordstream 2, for fuck's sake
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It's highly ironic saying this as if Meta/Alphabet/Google/Apple/Netflix haven't already decimated any viable competition and done so without paying fuck all taxes and done so on a worldwide basis but somehow it's a massive threat if China does the same.

It is chronically understated and underappreciated how much of the US tech industry is purely based on raping monopoly laws and violating tons of laws worldwide with impunity.
 
Trump trying to act like NATO isn't pulling its weight on Iran, as if that isn't the most crowded Zoom call I've ever seen.
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ThisIsGonnaBeGood said:
Admiral Cooper's plan is to just bomb all their military assets on the islands and along the shore, then have A-10s do continual strafing runs to take out any speedboats while spotters on ships use lasers and machine guns to shoot down any drone that tries to slip past.
And if the occasional drone does slip past, tough shit. Take the hit and keep on trucking. Refusing to move until every single last IRGC soldier who could fire an RPG somewhere in the vicinity is taken out is stupid.
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Do you think it's just going to take two to three more weeks? What do you make of Trump's ongoing army purge?
Boingboingboingboi said:
europeans have a chronic inability to act in their own interests
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What should they do in this case then, Ghostse is an extremely emotional bumpkin that has previously stated his excitement for paying $5 a gallon. It's clear that the Europeans are beginning to find Iran the more rational and predictable actor than Trump, all the surprises have come from him. His post is mostly being upset about Europe's strategic calculation, but really it's a miscalculation on the part of post-war America, they're the ones who enabled and provided for a nanny continent so that it could spend more on social programs, why are people so surprised that they want to continue being treated this way.

It's extremely grave for the US to realize that it's allies won't help, and now it's looking like the war is going to drag on.
A lot of this thread and is even included in Ghostese's post is the wishful thinking that there will be regime change in Iran, there is no clear viable opposition to the regime and the Iranian security apparatus continues to function, even the Kurds have refused to move in. You still see people in this thread saying "why aren't the Iranians rising up?"
 
MadStan said:
So would allowing Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon forward this ideal or hinder it?
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Depends on whether they wait to announce having one until they have missiles that could hit the American homeland.
If they try actually launching one at us, they'd be turned into a glass parking lot before it could get halfway here.
uvaldedeadbodystroker said:
Do you think it's just going to take two to three more weeks?
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Yeah, probably.
uvaldedeadbodystroker said:
What do you make of Trump's ongoing army purge?
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One of the guys was apparently fired for refusing to take DEI hires off the promotion list, but that could just be a cover story.
I trust Hegseth to make the right hiring decisions. He's been extremely solid since day one.
 
Boingboingboingboi said:
it's also transparently in their self interest to help to destroy the SOURCE of the drones that have been attacking them for 5 years.
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To be fair the flow of those drones has somewhat reversed in recent times. With Iran starting to fire off Russian made shaheds during this conflict alone (identified by examining downed drones in surrounding gulf states and finding the hardware inside of it with labels all written in Russian)

Plenty of other goodwill earning reasons for Ukraine to keep involved as well as just wanting to make friends in the region, falls in line with Ukraines activity ever since the conflict began to run basically a PR campaign for their country itself around the world because the more of the world that likes them, the more of the world that will back them in their fight.
 
ThisIsGonnaBeGood said:
Trump knows completely abandoning the Strait means Europe will happily bend over and let Iran fuck them in the ass with tolling fees.
France is already running to become BFFs with China rather than do anything that could be seen as helping Trump.
I wouldn't be surprised if, once their missile/drone launch abilities are sufficiently degraded (three weeks is a lot of time when you have complete air supremacy), we unleash those A-10s we've been shipping over to completely wipe out the speedboats, then just go full-hog on the bastards.
Then we get to charge tolling fees, and every country that refused us airspace pays double.
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Europe and Trump are both gambling on who can hold out longer. Europe is obviously foolish for doing so because they have more to lose here and are far less tolerant of chaos. A huge part of the disconnect between the US and Europe is that the US has an inherint desire for change and dynamism that Europe no longer does. Trump in particular thrives in a certain type of focused chaos, which is part of why they hate him. The US sometimes votes for the managed decline that has taken hold of Europe - but Trump exists explicitly as a rejection of it. He will always outlast them here.
 
ThisIsGonnaBeGood said:
Trump was 100% correct to leave these Eurofucks high and dry. Pussies are capitulating to a regime that's near-death and will be literally dead once the water runs out in a few months.
We should bomb all of Iran's oil infrastructure out of principle just to prove to these limp-wristed queers that they don't get to make deals with terrorists.
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The new US-friendly puppet regime/vassal is gonna need those oil fields and eurotards are going to be giving us money indirectly with these deals. I'm pretty sure this was in Art of the Deal.
 
neger psykolog said:
It's highly ironic saying this as if Meta/Alphabet/Google/Apple/Netflix haven't already decimated any viable competition and done so without paying fuck all taxes and done so on a worldwide basis but somehow it's a massive threat if China does the same.

It is chronically understated and underappreciated how much of the US tech industry is purely based on raping monopoly laws and violating tons of laws worldwide with impunity.
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Stop sniffing those fumes abo.
 
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