Carl Benjamin / Sargon of Akkad / Akkad Daily / The Thinkery / @not_sargon / @WarPlanPurple - Leader of the "Liberalists" & Droning Pseudo-Intellectual Boomer anti-SJW Activist, Applebees Waiter, Mass Shooter Whiteknight

[Goku 1000000 O]

Honestly can't see where you're getting this from. I made $4k on Trump because I recognized horrible methodology in the state polling. The fact is, there is very little money in honest polling - most of those companies couldn't keep afloat. Consequently, the vast majority of polling organizations have an agenda.

If the state polling was so good, why did EVERYONE say that muh 90%+ chance of Clinton? The people that make those predictions are not so brain-dead that they just look at national polling.

Not everyone said 90%, even Nate Silver said it was closer to 30% for a Trump win. Nate Silver also caught flak for this but he was easily the most reasonable on this.

Also, yes, polling firms can and do have biases. But, they still are pretty close to election results so even if they are biased they still seem to work.

What flaw did you see in state polling that gave you confidence though?

 

[instythot]

Honestly can't see where you're getting this from. I made $4k on Trump because I recognized horrible methodology in the state polling. The fact is, there is very little money in honest polling - most of those companies couldn't keep afloat. Consequently, the vast majority of polling organizations have an agenda.

If the state polling was so good, why did EVERYONE say that muh 90%+ chance of Clinton? The people that make those predictions are not so brain-dead that they just look at national polling.

It wasn't EVERYONE. It was like 6 people. A handful of polling firms, three cable news networks; two of which desperately picked a side and one which didn't really like the Trump outcome but were prepared to hold their nose and the associated print outlets from the parent companies.

I saw several polls that were more even and some even tilted Trump-wise, but the large voices decried them as "fringe", which was readily lapped up because large news organizations are obviously legitimate.

The number of people involved in the media megamergers gives the illusion of a plurality of opinions

 

[Daantttoon]

Of note the UK polls for the last election tracked pretty accurately with the result, heavily favouring tories at the start, but tanked during the debate May dodged and after manifestos. For the referendum itself the polls constantly flopped between remain and leave by 2-5% depending on date and location which was pretty accurate to how close the result ended up being the key is to look at all the polling data and pool it to spot the overall trend (is X in the lead or dipping, is it looking close or not)

The opinion polls for the 2014 election put ukip between 25-32% which is roughly where they ended up at 27%. Of note though public opinion can change fast, Theresa may went from huge lead to the shitshow the tories are in now, Carl may yet pull a Corbyn and rebound.

Also technically clinton did get the most votes overall in the popular vote so its hard to say the polls were completely off, people just drew conclusions that popular vote=winning the election due to how the system works.

edit

Looking at overall stuff so far even at its best UKIP is trending 10-15% and its looking like a fight between labour and BREXIT, which is pretty much repeat of 2014 with labour and UKIP trading spots on polls

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm's Ghost]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulb-Tg-Hj2c&t=60s

Coach did a video on soy goy. however, coach needs to learn these filters are more autistic then artistic.

Beware Greeks bearing gifts. Or CRP making predictions. Don't forget it was Coach who so succinctly after meeting Carl and cooing what a great guy he was predicted that Fox News or one of the other major news aggregates was going try to hire him, in an attempt to bring Skeptics tm personalities under their umbrella.

I know you're trying to prove a point that gets under your skin here, but just take a step back for a second... How is UKIP going to win anything when 80% of their sitting incumbents defected to BREXIT? The name recognition from "oh yeah, that's my rep" generally makes it incredibly hard to unseat an incumbent.

Carl managed to Carl up UKIP so hard that the party is Batten, Carl, Dank, a few exceptional individuals who haven't figured out to abandon ship with a side of Tommy Robinson who's not allowed to officially join, but is completely welcome to drag his ass all over the party rug and leave his stink everywhere.

Or to put it another way, he got a cursed monkey paw version of his wish to take the party over. Everyone of value left once he became a star within the party

It might be something that Batten has planned for and is working in his own self interest and that of the future of the party. They were always going to suffer defections from UKIP in to whatever Nigel went in to, because he had spent so long developing the party around himself as the figurehead, and when he left was quoted as saying it was ungovernable. Douglas Carswell the only MP that the party ever had, had tried to be a reforming force in the party, but was sidelined by Farage and his cadre within the party, that he quit and is now out of office.

So it might be an attempt by Batten to bring the new kids in, and shake out the older established elements of the party that aren't willing to move on party policy. Him losing the last of the Farage supporters, or scaring off the less committed members of UKIP, will open up places in the party for new supporters. And if it only has five or six big personas in the party, that's fine. It was never going to challenge labor or conservatives, but it can be a thorn in the side of the establishment.

Which speaking of being a thorn in the side of the establishment, that is basically what Dank and Carl will equate to if they get the returns to be made MEP's. That is also why Carl is going to try and be as bombastic and controversial as possible. There is an expected politeness in British media journalism, even when the media is going on an attack, there is an expected reaction and he will likely try to be as contradictory to this reaction as possible, because despite their being a number of people who dislike Carl, there will also be a number of people who dislike the media even more, and it will garner him support.

George Galloway built his political career around being a thorn in the side of the establishment and being outspoken, so it is possible.

He's genuinely acting like spazzing out and yelling at reporters on stage is part of his master plan.

Also claims to prefer talking to his pay pigs as opposed to powerful people in smoke-filled rooms. Which is transparently not true. If there's one thing Carl lives for at this point it's the dream of getting into a smoke-filled room.

Carl wouldn't know what to do in a smoke filled room.

 

[Goku 1000000 O]

@Kaiser Wilhelm's Ghost
Yeah, they are looking for new blood mainly. I forgot which member, but the BBC interviewed him over bringing in Carl and Dank and he basically said they were desperate for young people.

Also, I’ll argue that Carl’s strategy to gain attention and support from the anti-media public is really flawed. His star isn’t that big, and he isn’t really making himself more appealing by doing the dumb shit and tripling down on it. Like it’s great for his e-career but it doesn’t fly in the real world.

Theresa may went from huge lead to the shitshow the tories are in now, Carl may yet pull a Corbyn and rebound.

This is important to remember, we still have a month to go, so UKIP may rebound.

 

[Dickxon]

I looked over the thread, feel free to rate me Late if it's already been posted. Here's Carl and Dankula's first official UKIP press conference.
Spoilers: He gets angry at the first controversial question from the press and starts yelling at the reporter.

 

[Commander X]

He's the new face of UK politics. Deal with it.

 

[Dickxon]

He's the new face of UK politics. Deal with it.

I'd unironically vote for Al though, at least he accomplished something in life other than chuckling into a webcam.

 

[protomartyr]

It might be something that Batten has planned for and is working in his own self interest and that of the future of the party. They were always going to suffer defections from UKIP in to whatever Nigel went in to, because he had spent so long developing the party around himself as the figurehead, and when he left was quoted as saying it was ungovernable. Douglas Carswell the only MP that the party ever had, had tried to be a reforming force in the party, but was sidelined by Farage and his cadre within the party, that he quit and is now out of office.

Carswell is an interesting case. His heart was never in UKIP from the start, he only switched allegiances to try and detoxify the party brand ahead of the referendum, and to apply pressure to Cameron to set out a formal timetable. Mark Reckless switched for the same reason, and there were more being lined up but in the end two was all it took.

Carswell was a fantastic local MP, a genuinely independent thinker and a maverick parliamentarian in an age of grey-suited retards. I'm genuinely sad that he's gone from public life, although in the end we may never have gotten as far toward leaving as we have without his defection. If you haven't read it, Tim Shipman's book about the EU referendum is fascinating and covers a lot of this stuff in detail.

Which speaking of being a thorn in the side of the establishment, that is basically what Dank and Carl will equate to if they get the returns to be made MEP's. That is also why Carl is going to try and be as bombastic and controversial as possible. There is an expected politeness in British media journalism, even when the media is going on an attack, there is an expected reaction and he will likely try to be as contradictory to this reaction as possible, because despite their being a number of people who dislike Carl, there will also be a number of people who dislike the media even more, and it will garner him support.

George Galloway built his political career around being a thorn in the side of the establishment and being outspoken, so it is possible.

Galloway has a couple of things that Carl lacks, odious though he is. Charisma for one, which is essential once you have to stand for election under a set of rules that aren't basically stitch-ups on behalf of party leaders (proportional lists are a fucking joke). He also had the brains to realise he needed a way into frontline politics that was different from the norm, which doesn't seem to have occurred to Carl. Most importantly, Galloway has a constituency. There's a market for Jew-bashing and conspiracy-peddling, and Galloway found it with the Muslim community in Bradford. What's Carl's constituency? Gamers and incels?

 

[Tasty Tatty]

Sargon aint' wearing a corset. I think his suit ain't properly tailored.

 

[FH 721]

I'd unironically vote for Al though, at least he accomplished something in life other than chuckling into a webcam.

Chuckling AND sniffing coke into a webcam, thank you very much.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm's Ghost]

@Kaiser Wilhelm's Ghost
Yeah, they are looking for new blood mainly. I forgot which member, but the BBC interviewed him over bringing in Carl and Dank and he basically said they were desperate for young people.

Also, I’ll argue that Carl’s strategy to gain attention and support from the anti-media public is really flawed. His star isn’t that big, and he isn’t really making himself more appealing by doing the dumb shit and tripling down on it. Like it’s great for his e-career but it doesn’t fly in the real world.

This is important to remember, we still have a month to go, so UKIP may rebound.

@Goku 1000000 O That's fair to say. They really want to change the party brand, and younger apathetic voters are a literal goldmine.

As for whether it back fires or not. Carl really doesn't have anything else to bring to the table aside from his bombacity. He's got no life of public service which would recommend him for the role, and his work history does not have any qualities that could be carried over into political life, aside from being able to serve the wine at lunch. Even if he doesn't get anywhere with the MEP thing at least he tried, and it gives him at least some platform to segue into real life.

Look at the past few weeks, aside from a few isolated instances, the general news media and the general public didn't know who Carl was. Now they do. As for the end game who knows, it might be either MEP = dopamine & win or more public exposure = dopamine & win, the only who could answer that is Carl.

Carswell is an interesting case. His heart was never in UKIP from the start, he only switched allegiances to try and detoxify the party brand ahead of the referendum, and to apply pressure to Cameron to set out a formal timetable. Mark Reckless switched for the same reason, and there were more being lined up but in the end two was all it took.

Carswell was a fantastic local MP, a genuinely independent thinker and a maverick parliamentarian in an age of grey-suited exceptional individuals. I'm genuinely sad that he's gone from public life, although in the end we may never have gotten as far toward leaving as we have without his defection. If you haven't read it, Tim Shipman's book about the EU referendum is fascinating and covers a lot of this stuff in detail.

Galloway has a couple of things that Carl lacks, odious though he is. Charisma for one, which is essential once you have to stand for election under a set of rules that aren't basically stitch-ups on behalf of party leaders (proportional lists are a fucking joke). He also had the brains to realise he needed a way into frontline politics that was different from the norm, which doesn't seem to have occurred to Carl. Most importantly, Galloway has a constituency. There's a market for Jew-bashing and conspiracy-peddling, and Galloway found it with the Muslim community in Bradford. What's Carl's constituency? Gamers and incels?

Thanks for the recommendation, I will try to get a copy. Carswell was always a decent MP and it's a shame because he was rather outspoken as well as actually caring for his constituents. Parts of the Clacton constituency are rough, especially the Jaywick and Greater Bentley area. But he always seemed to try and do his best for the locals, in a place that hasn't had any industry since tourism dried up and went overseas.

Galloway has a tenacity about him, which has meant he's been able to weather the storms, and his pro-islamic party in Bradford was a smart move, which worked for him. Though he's managed to pull some other interesting political slips and get elected in other constituencies.

Carl has nowhere near his level of experience, but again I'm not sure it matters, if Carl is really out to change politics, I don't think he'd have approached it in the way he has, at the same time. It might just be him trying to get himself an IRL presence, and not just an internet one. He doesn't necessarily have to be elected to do that, as long as people take an interest in what he's got to say.

So that might be what is going on, he's trying to build a mainstream platform.

 

[Goku 1000000 O]

Galloway has a couple of things that Carl lacks, odious though he is. Charisma for one, which is essential once you have to stand for election under a set of rules that aren't basically stitch-ups on behalf of party leaders (proportional lists are a fucking joke).

As much as I dislike Carl, he does have charisma. Now, as soon as you see through to his actual character it fucking melts away but if that illusion can be kept up then it is rather strong unfortunately. Thankfully its really easy to see through him unless you're knee deep in the culture war and on his side.

@Goku 1000000 O That's fair to say. They really want to change the party brand, and younger apathetic voters are a literal goldmine.

As for whether it back fires or not. Carl really doesn't have anything else to bring to the table aside from his bombacity.

I think trigger the libs will be his literal campaign strategy. Almost any person with PR experience will know that they have to control the narrative so that they can increase their appeal. And yet for almost a week, Carl has pretty much only talked about the rape thing instead of going to the issues.

When I see those finger guns, I see someone who is pulling off a PR stunt rather than a political campaign in any proper sense.

Carl has nowhere near his level of experience, but again I'm not sure it matters, if Carl is really out to change politics, I don't think he'd have approached it in the way he has, at the same time. It might just be him trying to get himself an IRL presence, and not just an internet one. He doesn't necessarily have to be elected to do that, as long as people take an interest in what he's got to say.

There was a leak from Vee actually in April of last year where he talked about Carl. He said Carl basically just wanted to be left alone to do his speaking engagements. And considering how close he's gotten to certain media people over the years (he has Turning Point ties actually) he may be trying to style himself as a Milo figure.

And if we really want to put on our thinking caps, he may be just using UKIP for personal gain more than anything else. Regardless, that personal benefit to him is significant factor in his behavior.

 

[Aristophanes]

Carl has taken to defending himself on Facebook comments, or it's just a strong parody. The profile does seem genuine though.

For those unaware Tommy Robinson Exposed is a Facebook page that chronicles (and takes the piss) of Benjamin's UKIP buddy Stephen Yaxley Lennon aka Tommy Robinson.

Sargon really doesn't like that his peers within UKIP want him and Batten to step down.

Edit: I don't know if Carl has been sharing TRE's posts with his followers, but all of their posts about him have been mobbed by his exceptional fanbase.

 

[BlancoMailo]

Carl has taken to defending himself on Facebook comments, or it's just a strong parody. The profile does seem genuine though.

View attachment 731780View attachment 731781

For those unaware Tommy Robinson Exposed is a Facebook page that chronicles (and takes the piss) of Benjamin's UKIP buddy Stephen Yaxley Lennon aka Tommy Robinson.

Sargon really doesn't like that his peers within UKIP want him and Batten to step down.

Edit: I don't know if Carl has been sharing TRE's posts with his followers, but all of their posts about him have been mobbed by his exceptional fanbase.

Yeah that's him, you can also tell by his friend's list: http://archive.li/iBnl3

 

[ProgKing of the North]

He's the new face of UK politics. Deal with it.

okay, but him I actually would rape

 

[Slimy Time]

I hope there's video of this part. there's a clip where he says "That's hardly my policy, is it?" re: "I wouldn't even rape you". (is his policy that he would even rape you?)
View attachment 729965

Spoiler: behold The Suit

View attachment 729967

He does a fucking Half-Windsor knot on his tie, of which the entire point is to cover that gap between the collar, and he doesn't even tighten it up so it doesn't look shambolic. You would think after the suit meme which made him shit the bed in an absolutely autistic fit, he would look up how to make himself not look like an unkempt spastic.

Edit: Spread collar as well, the type of collar which thin or long faced men wear to not make their faces look too pointy, and this obese fuck decides to wear one...which only accentuates that he's a lard ass.

Normally I don't shit on someone for their formal/business attire, but when you run around pretending to be some sort of high minded intellectual, and get btfo once for blatantly having shit fitting formal/business attire, you would expect that person to correct it, especially one who is looking to be a representative of the country/people.

 

[FH 721]

okay, but him I actually would rape

Could Carl actually be able to rape anybody if they resisted? If the potential victim in question runs from him he would be out of breath after chasing them for 30 seconds.

 

[Jack Awful]

We all knew Sargon's political campaign would fail, but I had no idea he'd take an entire political party down with him.

 

[Goku 1000000 O]

Carl has taken to defending himself on Facebook comments, or it's just a strong parody. The profile does seem genuine though.

View attachment 731780View attachment 731781

For those unaware Tommy Robinson Exposed is a Facebook page that chronicles (and takes the piss) of Benjamin's UKIP buddy Stephen Yaxley Lennon aka Tommy Robinson.

Sargon really doesn't like that his peers within UKIP want him and Batten to step down.

Edit: I don't know if Carl has been sharing TRE's posts with his followers, but all of their posts about him have been mobbed by his exceptional fanbase.

Holy shit how thin skinned do you have to be to go around FB groups trying to defend yourself? Just campaign you moron instead of always talking about yourself.