So in the actual real budget terms ((I am sure disney is going to hide budget on this)) Plan IX a star wars story runs a real risk of failing and making 0 money
Optimistically yes. I made a calc that estimated ~835 million in the BO for Ruse of Soywalker, that was taking the ~37% dropoff between TFA and TLJ and applying it to TLJ's box office. However, there are a lot of factors now that are different then:
1: The environment is far more toxic. TLJ and the blowback, insults, canon raping, and hatred that surrounded it have made things totally different
2: Solo. Solo's utter failure might be a portent of things to come. I sincerely hope it isn't an outlier
3: Franchise fatigue. Every time someone says Star Wars, I just grow tired and jaded. I don't want to see it anymore and will tell my friends and family not to see it. This isn't "the proles won't buy because oversaturation" this is people are literally tired of Soy Wars.
4: The Antishills: Since TLJ emerged like a shit with fetal alcohol syndrome, many channels and people on Youtube have gained followers by shitting on it. The likes of MauLer, EVS, Geeks and Gamers, HackfraudMedia, WCBS etc. I hadn't heard of them before, but I know them now, and they have been instrumental in providing a lot of information about Disney's hatred of us to me, and many others as well.
Super optimistically, the movie struggles to crack 500 mil, maybe even fails below 400 mil at the end, but I doubt it. I'm thinking somewhere around 700-900 mil at the box office, Disney reporting 1.5 bil in a blatant, frantic lie.